比特幣（BTC）看漲的聯準會降息並不像你想像的那麼簡單

乍一看，聯準會降息似乎是一個看漲訊號，但事實並非如此。

The Federal Reserve (Fed) might start cutting interest rates this year, following Friday's inflation report. Crypto traders are betting that the move will boost fiat liquidity, driving demand for riskier assets like bitcoin (BTC). However, that might not be a straightforward bullish play.

在周五公佈通膨報告後，聯準會（Fed）今年可能開始降息。加密貨幣交易員押注此舉將提高法定流動性，從而推動對比特幣（BTC）等風險較高資產的需求。然而，這可能不是一個簡單的看漲策略。

Here's why: A rate cut might stimulate asset prices if it arrives at a time of low inflation and a booming economy. One that takes place amid signs of economic weakness could convey a bearish signal, prompting investors to rotate money out of riskier assets and into safer ones, such as government bonds.

原因如下：如果在低通膨和經濟繁榮時期降息可能會刺激資產價格。在經濟疲軟跡像中發生的情況可能會傳達看跌訊號，促使投資者將資金從風險較高的資產轉向更安全的資產，例如政府債券。

"If the Fed cuts rates in September 2024 due to inflation concerns, it could be short-term bullish for bitcoin," Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said in a note shared with CoinDesk. "However, if growth concerns drive the cut, either in September or later, bitcoin might face significant selling pressure."

10x Research 創始人馬庫斯·蒂倫 (Markus Thielen) 在與 CoinDesk 分享的一份報告中表示：“如果美聯儲因通脹擔憂而在 2024 年 9 月降息，那麼比特幣可能會短期看漲。” “然而，如果增長擔憂推動降息，無論是在 9 月還是之後，比特幣可能會面臨巨大的拋售壓力。”

Historically, bitcoin has gained the most when the Fed pauses its cycle of rate increases, Thielen noted. The arrival of the first cut has usually met with a tepid response.

蒂倫指出，從歷史上看，當聯準會暫停升息週期時，比特幣漲幅最大。第一次削減的到來通常反應不溫不火。

"During the Fed's pause from rate hikes until July 2019, bitcoin experienced explosive growth, returning +169%. Following a seven-month pause in 2019, the Fed cut interest rates, initiating a steep rate-cutting cycle. Initially, bitcoin responded positively, rallying +19% within a week after the July 31, 2019, rate cut. However, two weeks later, Bitcoin was back to flat," Thielen said.

「在聯準會暫停升息至2019年7月期間，比特幣經歷了爆發性成長，回報率+169%。在2019年暫停升息7個月後，聯準會降息，開啟了大幅降息週期。最初，比特幣反應積極” 2019 年 7 月 31 日降息後一周內上漲了 19%，但兩週後，比特幣又恢復持平。”

Thielen added that the rate cuts in the second half of 2019 were driven by economic uncertainties and weighed on BTC's price. The cryptocurrency's price fell 33% in the second half of the year, CoinDesk data show.

Thielen 補充說，2019 年下半年的降息是由經濟不確定性推動的，並打壓了 BTC 的價格。 CoinDesk 數據顯示，該加密貨幣的價格在今年下半年下跌了 33%。

U.S. stocks show a similar pattern.

美國股市也呈現類似的趨勢。

"The arrival of a Fed rate cut cycle has tended to coincide with a sizable stock-market drawdown,” Austin Pickle, a strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, said last month, according to MarketWatch. “Since 1974, the average drawdown has been roughly 20% over 250 days following the first Fed rate cut.”

根據 MarketWatch 報道，富國銀行投資研究所 (Wells Fargo Investment Institute) 策略師 Austin Pickle 上個月表示，「聯準會降息週期的到來往往與股市大幅下跌同時發生。」聯準會首次降息後的250 天內大約下降了20%。

Pickle added that the stock market would suffer if the Fed is forced to cut rates in response to macro weakness.

皮克爾補充說，如果聯準會因宏觀疲軟而被迫降息，股市將受到影響。

That means crypto traders should be watching for signs of weakness in the U.S. economy.

這意味著加密貨幣交易者應該留意美國經濟疲軟的跡象。

According to Fidelity's business cycle tracker, the U.S. economy was in the late stage of expansion at the end of the second quarter. Leading indicators like new orders for consumer goods and materials, consumer sentiment and building permits signaled weakness ahead. Should the weakness become more pronounced in coming months, a rate cut will do little for risk assets, including BTC.

富達商業週期追蹤報告顯示，第二季末美國經濟處於擴張後期。消費品和材料新訂單、消費者信心和建築許可等領先指標預示著未來的疲軟。如果未來幾個月疲軟變得更加明顯，降息對包括比特幣在內的風險資產幾乎沒有什麼作用。