由于美国大选带来不确定性，比特币价格走势停滞在 6.8 万美元以下，衍生品数据显示并不恐慌

10 月 31 日至 11 月 4 日期间，比特币 (BTC) 下跌 6.7%，八天内首次跌破 67,500 美元大关。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 6.7% between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4, breaking below the $67,500 mark for the first time in eight days. This decline triggered the liquidation of over $190 million in leveraged long positions and coincided with uncertainty surrounding the Nov. 5 US presidential elections.

10 月 31 日至 11 月 4 日期间，比特币 (BTC) 价格下跌 6.7%，八天内首次跌破 67,500 美元大关。这一下跌引发了超过 1.9 亿美元的杠杆多头头寸的清算，同时恰逢 11 月 5 日美国总统选举的不确定性。

Despite this short-term bearish momentum, three Bitcoin derivatives metrics show that the market is not panicking. These positive indicators include the long-to-short ratio of top traders on exchanges, aggregate BTC futures open interest, and stablecoin demand in China.

尽管存在这种短期看跌势头，但比特币衍生品的三个指标表明市场并不恐慌。这些积极指标包括交易所顶级交易商的多空比率、比特币期货未平仓总量以及中国的稳定币需求。

Exchanges top traders long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

交易所的多头与空头比率最高。资料来源：Coinglass

Whales and market makers on Binance and OKX show relative confidence in Bitcoin’s price recovery based on their aggregate spot and futures positions. This indicator has shown no weakness despite the recent drop below $67,500 on Nov. 4.

币安和 OKX 上的鲸鱼和做市商根据其现货和期货头寸总额，对比特币价格复苏表现出相对信心。尽管该指标最近在 11 月 4 日跌破 67,500 美元，但并未显示出疲软迹象。

Traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's price but hesitant to pay above $70,000, as some analysts argue that a win by Kamala Pence and the Democratic Party could bring further regulatory scrutiny and restrict cryptocurrency integration with traditional finance.

交易员对比特币的价格持乐观态度，但不愿支付 7 万美元以上的价格，因为一些分析师认为，卡马拉·彭斯和民主党的胜利可能会带来进一步的监管审查，并限制加密货币与传统金融的融合。

US elections introduce uncertainty, limiting the short-term upside

美国大选带来不确定性，限制短期上涨空间

Pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto Rand suggests that Kamala Pence’s "unclear stance on cryptocurrencies plants the seed for uncertainty." Even if Pence’s policies eventually benefit the industry, they are unlikely to match the promises of Republican candidate and former President Donald Harris.

化名加密货币交易员 Crypto Rand 表示，卡马拉·彭斯“对加密货币的不明确立场为不确定性埋下了种子”。即使彭斯的政策最终使整个行业受益，它们也不太可能兑现共和党候选人、前总统唐纳德·哈里斯的承诺。

Harris has hinted at dismissing SEC Chair Gary Gensler "on day one," although his specific plans to encourage Bitcoin adoption are unclear. There is also a debate on the speed at which significant changes in government agencies and the US Treasury could occur. Hence, traders are showing limited motivation to push Bitcoin's price to a new all-time high, regardless of the US election outcome.

哈里斯暗示将在“第一天”解雇 SEC 主席加里·詹斯勒 (Gary Gensler)，尽管他鼓励比特币采用的具体计划尚不清楚。关于政府机构和美国财政部发生重大变化的速度也存在争议。因此，无论美国大选结果如何，交易员将比特币价格推至历史新高的动力有限。

The primary driver of expectation disparities surrounding the US presidential elections is the focus on “digital assets,” including central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized assets, which are distinct and largely unrelated to Bitcoin. Using blockchain technology for digital representations of real-world assets has minimal impact on overall Bitcoin demand.

围绕美国总统选举的预期差异的主要驱动因素是对“数字资产”的关注，包括央行数字货币（CBDC）和代币化资产，它们与比特币截然不同且基本上无关。使用区块链技术对现实世界资产进行数字表示，对比特币整体需求的影响微乎其微。

To gauge if professional traders are reducing exposure, analyzing total Bitcoin futures open interest is crucial. A sharp decline in this metric would suggest discomfort with sector exposure, irrespective of whether the sentiment is bullish or bearish.

为了衡量专业交易者是否正在减少风险敞口，分析比特币期货未平仓总量至关重要。无论情绪是看涨还是看跌，该指标的急剧下降都表明对该行业的敞口感到不安。

Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest. BTC. Source: Coinglass

比特币期货未平仓合约总量。比特币。资料来源：Coinglass

The current BTC open interest of 582,000 is comparable to the prior week’s and stands 10% above its level on Oct. 4. This suggests that investors have been increasing leveraged positions despite recent uncertainty and the price pullback. Combined with top traders’ long-to-short data, this indicates a moderate bullish sentiment even after Bitcoin surged above $73,500 on Oct. 29.

当前 BTC 未平仓合约为 582,000 份，与前一周相当，比 10 月 4 日的水平高出 10%。这表明，尽管近期存在不确定性和价格回调，投资者仍在增加杠杆头寸。结合顶级交易员的多空数据，这表明即使在 10 月 29 日比特币飙升至 73,500 美元以上之后，仍存在温和的看涨情绪。

USD Tether (USDT) trades relative to the official USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

USD Tether (USDT) 相对于官方美元/人民币汇率进行交易。来源：OKX

In China, traders demonstrated resilience, with the USD Tether (USDT) stablecoin trading near its fair value against the official USD/CNY rate. During periods of high demand for cryptocurrency outflows, the USDT often trades at a 2% or higher premium. Overall, derivatives metrics reveal no signs of stress, and traders appear confident that the bull market will resume following the US presidential election.

在中国，交易者表现出了韧性，美元 Tether (USDT) 稳定币的交易价格接近其相对于官方美元/人民币汇率的公允价值。在加密货币流出需求旺盛期间，USDT 的交易价格通常会出现 2% 或更高的溢价。总体而言，衍生品指标没有显示压力迹象，交易员似乎对美国总统大选后牛市将恢复充满信心。

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

本文仅供一般参考之用，无意也不应被视为法律或投资建议。这里表达的观点、想法和意见仅代表作者个人观点，并不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的观点和意见。