由於美國大選帶來不確定性，比特幣價格走勢停滯在 6.8 萬美元以下，衍生性商品數據顯示並不驚慌

10 月 31 日至 11 月 4 日期間，比特幣 (BTC) 下跌 6.7%，八天內首次跌破 67,500 美元大關。

Bitcoin (BTC) price dropped 6.7% between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4, breaking below the $67,500 mark for the first time in eight days. This decline triggered the liquidation of over $190 million in leveraged long positions and coincided with uncertainty surrounding the Nov. 5 US presidential elections.

10 月 31 日至 11 月 4 日期間，比特幣 (BTC) 價格下跌 6.7%，八天內首次跌破 67,500 美元大關。這一下跌引發了超過 1.9 億美元的槓桿多頭頭寸的清算，同時恰逢 11 月 5 日美國總統選舉的不確定性。

Despite this short-term bearish momentum, three Bitcoin derivatives metrics show that the market is not panicking. These positive indicators include the long-to-short ratio of top traders on exchanges, aggregate BTC futures open interest, and stablecoin demand in China.

儘管存在這種短期看跌勢頭，但比特幣衍生品的三個指標表明市場並不恐慌。這些積極指標包括交易所頂級交易商的多空比率、比特幣期貨未平倉總量以及中國的穩定幣需求。

Exchanges top traders long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass

交易所的多頭與空頭比率最高。資料來源：Coinglass

Whales and market makers on Binance and OKX show relative confidence in Bitcoin’s price recovery based on their aggregate spot and futures positions. This indicator has shown no weakness despite the recent drop below $67,500 on Nov. 4.

幣安和 OKX 上的鯨魚和做市商根據其現貨和期貨頭寸總額，對比特幣價格復甦表現出相對信心。儘管該指標最近在 11 月 4 日跌破 67,500 美元，但並未顯示出疲軟跡象。

Traders are optimistic about Bitcoin's price but hesitant to pay above $70,000, as some analysts argue that a win by Kamala Pence and the Democratic Party could bring further regulatory scrutiny and restrict cryptocurrency integration with traditional finance.

交易員對比特幣的價格持樂觀態度，但不願支付7 萬美元以上的價格，因為一些分析師認為，卡馬拉·彭斯和民主黨的勝利可能會帶來進一步的監管審查，並限制加密貨幣與傳統金融的融合。

US elections introduce uncertainty, limiting the short-term upside

美國大選帶來不確定性，限制短期上漲空間

Pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto Rand suggests that Kamala Pence’s "unclear stance on cryptocurrencies plants the seed for uncertainty." Even if Pence’s policies eventually benefit the industry, they are unlikely to match the promises of Republican candidate and former President Donald Harris.

化名加密貨幣交易員 Crypto Rand 表示，卡馬拉·彭斯「對加密貨幣的不明確立場為不確定性埋下了種子」。即使彭斯的政策最終使整個行業受益，它們也不太可能兌現共和黨候選人、前總統唐納德哈里斯的承諾。

Harris has hinted at dismissing SEC Chair Gary Gensler "on day one," although his specific plans to encourage Bitcoin adoption are unclear. There is also a debate on the speed at which significant changes in government agencies and the US Treasury could occur. Hence, traders are showing limited motivation to push Bitcoin's price to a new all-time high, regardless of the US election outcome.

哈里斯暗示將在「第一天」解僱美國證券交易委員會主席加里·詹斯勒，儘管他鼓勵比特幣採用的具體計劃尚不清楚。關於政府機構和美國財政部發生重大變化的速度也存在爭議。因此，無論美國大選結果如何，交易員將比特幣價格推至歷史新高的動機有限。

The primary driver of expectation disparities surrounding the US presidential elections is the focus on “digital assets,” including central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized assets, which are distinct and largely unrelated to Bitcoin. Using blockchain technology for digital representations of real-world assets has minimal impact on overall Bitcoin demand.

圍繞美國總統選舉的預期差異的主要驅動因素是對「數位資產」的關注，包括央行數位貨幣（CBDC）和代幣化資產，它們與比特幣截然不同且基本上無關。使用區塊鏈技術對現實世界資產進行數位表示，對比特幣整體需求的影響微乎其微。

To gauge if professional traders are reducing exposure, analyzing total Bitcoin futures open interest is crucial. A sharp decline in this metric would suggest discomfort with sector exposure, irrespective of whether the sentiment is bullish or bearish.

為了衡量專業交易者是否正在減少風險敞口，分析比特幣期貨未平倉總量至關重要。無論情緒是看漲還是看跌，該指標的急劇下降都表明對該行業的敞口感到不安。

Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest. BTC. Source: Coinglass

比特幣期貨未平倉合約總量。比特幣。資料來源：Coinglass

The current BTC open interest of 582,000 is comparable to the prior week’s and stands 10% above its level on Oct. 4. This suggests that investors have been increasing leveraged positions despite recent uncertainty and the price pullback. Combined with top traders’ long-to-short data, this indicates a moderate bullish sentiment even after Bitcoin surged above $73,500 on Oct. 29.

目前 BTC 未平倉合約為 582,000 份，與前一周相當，比 10 月 4 日的水平高出 10%。結合頂級交易員的多空數據，這表明即使在 10 月 29 日比特幣飆升至 73,500 美元以上之後，仍存在溫和的看漲情緒。

USD Tether (USDT) trades relative to the official USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

USD Tether (USDT) 相對於官方美元/人民幣匯率進行交易。來源：OKX

In China, traders demonstrated resilience, with the USD Tether (USDT) stablecoin trading near its fair value against the official USD/CNY rate. During periods of high demand for cryptocurrency outflows, the USDT often trades at a 2% or higher premium. Overall, derivatives metrics reveal no signs of stress, and traders appear confident that the bull market will resume following the US presidential election.

在中國，交易者表現出了韌性，美元 Tether (USDT) 穩定幣的交易價格接近其相對於官方美元/人民幣匯率的公允價值。在加密貨幣流出需求旺盛期間，USDT 的交易價格通常有 2% 或更高的溢價。總體而言，衍生性商品指標沒有顯示壓力跡象，交易員似乎對美國總統大選後多頭市場將恢復充滿信心。

This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.

本文僅供一般參考之用，無意也不應被視為法律或投資建議。這裡表達的觀點、想法和意見僅代表作者個人觀點，不一定反映或代表Cointelegraph的觀點和意見。