BNB飙升，链上指标不确定性加剧投机

BNB 飙升 12% 至 620 美元，缩小了与同期上涨 5% 的 Ether 的差距。尽管上涨，但链上数据的混合信号表明潜在的过度扩张，BNB Chain 的总锁定价值 (TVL) 自峰值以来下降了 55%，并触及 2021 年 3 月以来的最低点，凸显了更广泛的 DeFi 市场的收缩。

BNB Surges, Sparking Speculation Amid Mixed On-Chain Signals

BNB 飙升，链上信号混杂引发投机

In the cryptocurrency market's recent upward trend, Binance Coin (BNB) has emerged as a notable performer, experiencing a 12% surge in value over the past week. This surge has propelled BNB to a nearly two-week high of $620, narrowing the valuation gap with its main competitor, Ether (ETH), which posted a more modest 5% gain during the same period.

在加密货币市场近期的上涨趋势中，币安币 (BNB) 表现出色，过去一周价值飙升 12%。此次飙升将 BNB 推升至近两周高点 620 美元，缩小了与其主要竞争对手以太坊 (ETH) 的估值差距，后者同期涨幅较温和，为 5%。

However, a closer examination of on-chain data for BNB Chain reveals mixed signals, raising questions about the sustainability of the current rally.

然而，对 BNB Chain 链上数据的仔细检查显示出混合信号，引发了人们对当前涨势可持续性的质疑。

Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows and DeFi Momentum

现货比特币 ETF 流量和 DeFi 势头的影响

Market analysts attribute the recent upward trend in the cryptocurrency market to inflows into spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, these flows experienced a setback in the week ending March 23, with these financial instruments seeing a net outflow of $890 million for the first time since their introduction in January.

市场分析师将加密货币市场近期的上涨趋势归因于现货比特币（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）的流入。然而，这些资金流在截至 3 月 23 日的一周内遭遇挫折，这些金融工具自 1 月份推出以来首次净流出 8.9 亿美元。

On a positive note, recent figures indicate a significant decrease in outflows from Grayscale's GBTC fund, with only $104 million leaving the fund on March 28.

积极的一面是，最近的数据表明 Grayscale 的 GBTC 基金的资金流出量显着减少，截至 3 月 28 日，该基金仅流出 1.04 亿美元。

BNB's Price Momentum and Total Value Locked

BNB的价格动量和总价值锁定

In the first half of March, BNB's price soared by an impressive 61.7%. However, this momentum reversed after reaching a peak of $645, corresponding to a market capitalization of $96.4 billion. For context, BNB hit an all-time high valuation of $116 billion in November 2021.

3月上半月，BNB价格飙升61.7%，令人印象深刻。然而，这种势头在达到 645 美元的峰值（相当于 964 亿美元的市值）后出现逆转。就背景而言，BNB 的估值在 2021 年 11 月达到了 1160 亿美元的历史新高。

Interestingly, the total value locked (TVL) on BNB Chain, which represents the total deposits in the network's smart contracts, stood at $15.7 billion at that peak. Since then, TVL has plummeted to just $7.1 billion, a significant reduction of 55%.

有趣的是，BNB 链上的锁定总价值 (TVL)（代表网络智能合约中的存款总额）在峰值时达到 157 亿美元。此后，TVL 暴跌至 71 亿美元，大幅下降 55%。

It is important to recognize that the entire crypto market, particularly decentralized finance (DeFi), has contracted significantly since late 2021. Therefore, it would be unfair to single out the decline in BNB Chain's TVL. For example, the total market data for all blockchains tracked by DefiLlama, which once reached nearly $205 billion, now stands at $155 billion, marking a 25% decrease.

重要的是要认识到，自 2021 年底以来，整个加密市场，尤其是去中心化金融（DeFi）已大幅萎缩。因此，单独指出 BNB Chain 的 TVL 下降是不公平的。例如，DefiLlama 追踪的所有区块链的总市场数据一度达到近 2050 亿美元，现在为 1550 亿美元，下降了 25%。

Comparative Analysis of BNB Chain's TVL

BNB Chain TVL对比分析

A detailed examination of BNB Chain's TVL, especially in comparison with direct competitors like Ethereum and Solana (SOL), is warranted. DefiLlama's data reveals that BNB Chain's smart contract deposits have fallen to their lowest levels since March 2021, down 10% over two months. This contrasts with Ethereum's 8% TVL increase in ETH terms and Solana's TVL, which jumped 29% since Jan. 28.

有必要对 BNB Chain 的 TVL 进行详细检查，特别是与以太坊和 Solana (SOL) 等直接竞争对手进行比较。 DefiLlama的数据显示，BNB Chain的智能合约存款已降至2021年3月以来的最低水平，两个月内下降了10%。这与以太坊以 ETH 计算的 TVL 增长 8% 以及 Solana 的 TVL 自 1 月 28 日以来增长 29% 形成鲜明对比。

BNB Chain's Activity Levels

BNB Chain的活跃程度

TVL should not be the sole indicator of a blockchain's success. Many decentralized applications (DApps), including nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces, games, decentralized bets, collectibles, and social networks, do not require substantial deposits. In the past week alone, nearly 2 million active addresses engaged with DApps on the BNB Chain.

TVL 不应成为区块链成功的唯一指标。许多去中心化应用程序（DApp），包括非同质代币（NFT）市场、游戏、去中心化投注、收藏品和社交网络，不需要大量存款。仅在过去一周，就有近 200 万个活跃地址与 BNB 链上的 DApp 进行交互。

BNB Chain's activity levels rival those of Ethereum's most active layer-2 networks, boasting a comparable number of active addresses. Notably, despite Solana's active addresses being 14% higher during the same timeframe, no blockchain other than Ethereum approaches the seven-day trading volume of BNB Chain, which stands at $12.4 billion. Moreover, while Solana and Ethereum saw their volumes decrease, BNB Chain's trading volume experienced an 11% uptick.

BNB Chain 的活动水平可与以太坊最活跃的第 2 层网络相媲美，拥有相当数量的活动地址。值得注意的是，尽管 Solana 的活跃地址在同一时间段内增加了 14%，但除了以太坊之外，没有其他区块链能够接近 BNB 链的 7 天交易量，即 124 亿美元。此外，虽然 Solana 和以太坊的交易量有所下降，但 BNB Chain 的交易量却增长了 11%。

Leverage Demand and Market Sentiment

利用需求和市场情绪

Forecasting future trends in the cryptocurrency sector presents considerable challenges. A more reliable approach involves examining derivative metrics, such as the demand for leverage in BNB perpetual futures contracts, which serves as an indicator of market demand. A key metric to consider is the funding rate: a positive funding rate indicates a tendency among traders to apply leverage to their long positions.

预测加密货币领域的未来趋势面临着巨大的挑战。更可靠的方法是检查衍生品指标，例如 BNB 永续期货合约的杠杆需求，它可以作为市场需求的指标。需要考虑的一个关键指标是资金费率：正的资金费率表明交易者倾向于对其多头头寸应用杠杆。

The latest figures show that the demand for leveraged long positions has leveled off, with the 8-hour funding rate holding steady at around 0.03%, or about 0.6% weekly. Usually, when traders feel positive about the market, this rate can climb above 1.2% per week. So, despite BNB's price struggle with the $620 level, market sentiment remains optimistic.

最新数据显示，杠杆多头头寸需求已趋于平稳，8小时资金费率稳定在0.03%左右，每周约为0.6%。通常，当交易者对市场感到乐观时，该比率每周可以攀升至 1.2% 以上。因此，尽管 BNB 的价格在 620 美元的水平上挣扎，但市场情绪仍然乐观。

Conclusion

结论

BNB's recent surge in value has been a significant development in the cryptocurrency market. However, mixed signals from on-chain data suggest that the rally may have stretched too far. While TVL has declined significantly, BNB Chain's activity levels and trading volume remain robust, indicating strong underlying usage. A more comprehensive analysis of derivative metrics suggests that market sentiment remains optimistic.

BNB 最近的价值飙升是加密货币市场的重大发展。然而，来自链上数据的混合信号表明，涨势可能已经过度。虽然 TVL 大幅下降，但 BNB Chain 的活动水平和交易量仍然强劲，表明潜在使用量强劲。对衍生品指标的更全面分析表明，市场情绪仍然乐观。

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