BNB飆升，鏈上指標不確定性加劇投機

BNB 飆升 12% 至 620 美元，縮小了與同期上漲 5% 的 Ether 的差距。儘管上漲，但鏈上數據的混合訊號表明潛在的過度擴張，BNB Chain 的總鎖定價值(TVL) 自峰值以來下降了55%，並觸及2021 年3 月以來的最低點，凸顯了更廣泛的DeFi市場的收縮。

BNB Surges, Sparking Speculation Amid Mixed On-Chain Signals

BNB 飆升，鏈上訊號混雜引發投機

In the cryptocurrency market's recent upward trend, Binance Coin (BNB) has emerged as a notable performer, experiencing a 12% surge in value over the past week. This surge has propelled BNB to a nearly two-week high of $620, narrowing the valuation gap with its main competitor, Ether (ETH), which posted a more modest 5% gain during the same period.

在加密貨幣市場近期的上漲趨勢中，幣安幣 (BNB) 表現出色，過去一周價值飆升 12%。此次飆升將 BNB 推升至近兩週高點 620 美元，縮小了與其主要競爭對手以太坊 (ETH) 的估值差距，後者同期漲幅較溫和，為 5%。

However, a closer examination of on-chain data for BNB Chain reveals mixed signals, raising questions about the sustainability of the current rally.

然而，對 BNB Chain 鏈上數據的仔細檢查顯示出混合訊號，引發了人們對當前漲勢可持續性的質疑。

Impact of Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows and DeFi Momentum

現貨比特幣 ETF 流量和 DeFi 勢頭的影響

Market analysts attribute the recent upward trend in the cryptocurrency market to inflows into spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds (ETFs). However, these flows experienced a setback in the week ending March 23, with these financial instruments seeing a net outflow of $890 million for the first time since their introduction in January.

市場分析師將加密貨幣市場近期的上漲趨勢歸因於現貨比特幣（BTC）交易所交易基金（ETF）的流入。然而，這些資金流在截至 3 月 23 日的一周內遭遇挫折，這些工具自 1 月推出以來首次淨流出 8.9 億美元。

On a positive note, recent figures indicate a significant decrease in outflows from Grayscale's GBTC fund, with only $104 million leaving the fund on March 28.

積極的一面是，最近的數據表明 Grayscale 的 GBTC 基金的資金流出量顯著減少，截至 3 月 28 日，該基金僅流出 1.04 億美元。

BNB's Price Momentum and Total Value Locked

BNB的價格動量和總價值鎖定

In the first half of March, BNB's price soared by an impressive 61.7%. However, this momentum reversed after reaching a peak of $645, corresponding to a market capitalization of $96.4 billion. For context, BNB hit an all-time high valuation of $116 billion in November 2021.

3月上半月，BNB價格飆漲61.7%，令人印象深刻。然而，這種勢頭在達到 645 美元的峰值（相當於 964 億美元的市值）後出現逆轉。就背景而言，BNB 的估值在 2021 年 11 月達到了 1,160 億美元的歷史新高。

Interestingly, the total value locked (TVL) on BNB Chain, which represents the total deposits in the network's smart contracts, stood at $15.7 billion at that peak. Since then, TVL has plummeted to just $7.1 billion, a significant reduction of 55%.

有趣的是，BNB 鏈上的鎖定總價值 (TVL)（代表網路智慧合約中的存款總額）在高峰時達到 157 億美元。此後，TVL 暴跌至 71 億美元，大幅下降 55%。

It is important to recognize that the entire crypto market, particularly decentralized finance (DeFi), has contracted significantly since late 2021. Therefore, it would be unfair to single out the decline in BNB Chain's TVL. For example, the total market data for all blockchains tracked by DefiLlama, which once reached nearly $205 billion, now stands at $155 billion, marking a 25% decrease.

重要的是要認識到，自 2021 年底以來，整個加密市場，尤其是去中心化金融（DeFi）已大幅萎縮。因此，單獨指出 BNB Chain 的 TVL 下降是不公平的。例如，DefiLlama 追蹤的所有區塊鏈的總市場數據一度達到近 2,050 億美元，現在為 1,550 億美元，下降了 25%。

Comparative Analysis of BNB Chain's TVL

BNB Chain TVL比較分析

A detailed examination of BNB Chain's TVL, especially in comparison with direct competitors like Ethereum and Solana (SOL), is warranted. DefiLlama's data reveals that BNB Chain's smart contract deposits have fallen to their lowest levels since March 2021, down 10% over two months. This contrasts with Ethereum's 8% TVL increase in ETH terms and Solana's TVL, which jumped 29% since Jan. 28.

有必要對 BNB Chain 的 TVL 進行詳細檢查，特別是與以太坊和 Solana (SOL) 等直接競爭對手進行比較。 DefiLlama的數據顯示，BNB Chain的智能合約存款已降至2021年3月以來的最低水平，兩個月內下降了10%。這與以太坊以 ETH 計算的 TVL 增長 8% 以及 Solana 的 TVL 自 1 月 28 日以來增長 29% 形成鮮明對比。

BNB Chain's Activity Levels

BNB Chain的活躍程度

TVL should not be the sole indicator of a blockchain's success. Many decentralized applications (DApps), including nonfungible token (NFT) marketplaces, games, decentralized bets, collectibles, and social networks, do not require substantial deposits. In the past week alone, nearly 2 million active addresses engaged with DApps on the BNB Chain.

TVL 不應該成為區塊鏈成功的唯一指標。許多去中心化應用程式（DApp），包括非同質代幣（NFT）市場、遊戲、去中心化投注、收藏品和社交網絡，不需要大量存款。光是過去一周，就有近 200 萬個活躍位址與 BNB 鏈上的 DApp 互動。

BNB Chain's activity levels rival those of Ethereum's most active layer-2 networks, boasting a comparable number of active addresses. Notably, despite Solana's active addresses being 14% higher during the same timeframe, no blockchain other than Ethereum approaches the seven-day trading volume of BNB Chain, which stands at $12.4 billion. Moreover, while Solana and Ethereum saw their volumes decrease, BNB Chain's trading volume experienced an 11% uptick.

BNB Chain 的活動量可與以太坊最活躍的第 2 層網路相媲美，擁有相當數量的活動地址。值得注意的是，儘管 Solana 的活躍地址在同一時間段內增加了 14%，但除了以太坊之外，沒有其他區塊鏈能夠接近 BNB 鏈的 7 天交易量，即 124 億美元。此外，雖然 Solana 和以太坊的交易量有所下降，但 BNB Chain 的交易量卻增加了 11%。

Leverage Demand and Market Sentiment

利用需求和市場情緒

Forecasting future trends in the cryptocurrency sector presents considerable challenges. A more reliable approach involves examining derivative metrics, such as the demand for leverage in BNB perpetual futures contracts, which serves as an indicator of market demand. A key metric to consider is the funding rate: a positive funding rate indicates a tendency among traders to apply leverage to their long positions.

預測加密貨幣領域的未來趨勢面臨著巨大的挑戰。更可靠的方法是檢視衍生性商品指標，例如 BNB 永續期貨合約的槓桿需求，它可以作為市場需求的指標。需要考慮的關鍵指標是資金費率：正的資金費率表明交易者傾向於對其多頭部位應用槓桿。

The latest figures show that the demand for leveraged long positions has leveled off, with the 8-hour funding rate holding steady at around 0.03%, or about 0.6% weekly. Usually, when traders feel positive about the market, this rate can climb above 1.2% per week. So, despite BNB's price struggle with the $620 level, market sentiment remains optimistic.

最新數據顯示，槓桿多頭部位需求已趨於平穩，8小時資金費率穩定在0.03%左右，每週約0.6%。通常，當交易者對市場感到樂觀時，該比率每周可以攀升至 1.2% 以上。因此，儘管 BNB 的價格在 620 美元的水平上掙扎，但市場情緒仍然樂觀。

Conclusion

結論

BNB's recent surge in value has been a significant development in the cryptocurrency market. However, mixed signals from on-chain data suggest that the rally may have stretched too far. While TVL has declined significantly, BNB Chain's activity levels and trading volume remain robust, indicating strong underlying usage. A more comprehensive analysis of derivative metrics suggests that market sentiment remains optimistic.

BNB 最近的價值飆升是加密貨幣市場的重大發展。然而，來自鏈上數據的混合訊號表明，漲勢可能已經過度。雖然 TVL 大幅下降，但 BNB Chain 的活動水平和交易量仍然強勁，表明潛在使用量強勁。對衍生性商品指標的更全面分析表明，市場情緒仍然樂觀。

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