比特币正在动摇，比历史最高的高度下降了20％以上，重新激发了人们对急剧逆转的恐惧。

比特币正在动摇，比历史最高的高度下降了20％以上，重新激发了人们对急剧逆转的恐惧。但是，有些人认为这只是在持续的周期中的停顿。

Bitcoin price has declined by more than 20% from its all-time high, sparking fears of a steep market reversal. However, some analysts view this setback as a natural pause in the ongoing crypto cycle.

比特币的价格与历史最高水平相比，比特币的价格下降了20％以上，这引起了人们对陡峭市场逆转的担忧。但是，一些分析师将这种挫折视为正在进行的加密周期中的自然停顿。

According to Timothy Peterson, an analyst at Cane Island Alternative Advisors and author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, this downturn remains moderate compared to previous bear markets and fits into a classic phase of consolidation rather than a structural collapse.

根据甘蔗岛替代顾问的分析师，梅特卡夫定律的作者蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的说法，与以前的熊市相比，这种衰退仍然温和，并适合经典的巩固阶段，而不是结构性崩溃。

Temporary Retreat: A Controlled “Bear Market”?

临时撤退：受控的“熊市”？

Peterson describes the current Bitcoin decline as follows:

彼得森描述了当前的比特币下降，如下所示：

“Only 4 bear markets have been more severe than the current one in terms of duration: 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. Usually, we get one a year, and they last for about 3 months.”

“就持续时间而言，只有4个熊市比当前的市场更为严重：2018、2021、2022和2024。通常，我们每年得到一个，它们持续约3个月。”

This analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency could find stability around early summer if the usual pattern repeats this year.

该分析表明，如果通常的模式在今年重复，则加密货币可以在初夏左右发现稳定性。

If this analysis proves correct, it could reactivate the speculative appetite of some short-term investors. The bullish momentum post-April, if it occurs, could serve as a catalyst for new momentum.

如果该分析证明是正确的，则可以重新激活一些短期投资者的投机性。 4月后，看涨的势头可以作为新势头的催化剂。

But at this stage, macroeconomic conditions and the absence of new capital remain obstacles to a significant reversal. Thus, the scenario of a spring rebound relies on a precarious balance between technical confidence and external triggers.

但是在这个阶段，宏观经济状况和缺乏新资本仍然存在重大逆转的障碍。因此，春季反弹的情况取决于技术信心和外部触发器之间的不稳定平衡。

The Weight of Macroeconomic Tensions on Market Sentiment

市场情绪上的宏观经济紧张局势的重量

Beyond technical analysis, other signals weigh on market morale. In the background, trade tensions triggered by President Trump’s recent tariff policies have rekindled fears of a global slowdown.

除了技术分析之外，其他信号还压在市场士气上。在背景下，特朗普总统最近的关税政策引起的贸易紧张局势重新点燃了对全球放缓的担忧。

These announcements led to a simultaneous drop in Bitcoin and other risky assets, which temporarily undermined the narrative of Bitcoin as a “safe haven”.

这些公告导致比特币和其他风险资产同时下降，这暂时破坏了比特币作为“避风港”的叙述。

“Investor appetite for speculative assets is waning due to the trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty,” confirms Nicolai Sondergaard, analyst at Nansen.

Nansen的分析师Nicolai Sondergaard证实：“由于贸易战和宏观经济的不确定性，投资者对投机资产的需求正在减弱。”

This disengagement is reflected in on-chain data. Glassnode’s latest report shows that “Hot Supply” (the proportion of BTC held for less than a week) has dropped from 5.9% in November 2024 to just 2.3% on March 20, 2025.

这种脱节反映在链上数据中。 GlassNode的最新报告显示，“热供应”（持有不到一周的BTC的比例）已从2024年11月的5.9％下降到2025年3月20日的2.3％。

Meanwhile, a study by CryptoQuant highlights that the majority of retail investors are already in Bitcoin, which reduces hopes for an influx of new capital in the short term. This context limits the prospects for an immediate rebound, despite hopes for a potential rally post-April.

同时，CryptoQuant的一项研究强调，大多数散户投资者已经在比特币中，这减少了短期内新资本的希望。尽管希望在4月后进行潜在的集会，但这种情况限制了立即反弹的前景。

Far from a mere technical movement, this phase of retreat informs on the market’s persistent fragility in the face of external shocks. If Timothy Peterson’s projections materialize, the market could find a certain balance by early summer. But in the absence of favorable macroeconomic signals or renewed momentum, Bitcoin is likely to remain under pressure.

这一撤退阶段远非仅仅是技术运动，这​​在面对外部冲击时就可以告知市场的持续脆弱性。如果蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的预测实现，市场可能会在初夏之前找到一定的平衡。但是，在没有有利的宏观经济信号或更新的动量的情况下，比特币可能会保持压力。

It remains to be seen whether the current resistance constitutes a solid base for a new bullish phase, or simply a temporary lull before further turbulence.

当前的电阻是新的看涨阶段的固体基础，还是只是在进一步的湍流之前暂时停滞，还有待观察。