比特幣正在動搖，比歷史最高的高度下降了20％以上，重新激發了人們對急劇逆轉的恐懼。

比特幣正在動搖，比歷史最高的高度下降了20％以上，重新激發了人們對急劇逆轉的恐懼。但是，有些人認為這只是在持續的周期中的停頓。

Bitcoin price has declined by more than 20% from its all-time high, sparking fears of a steep market reversal. However, some analysts view this setback as a natural pause in the ongoing crypto cycle.

比特幣的價格與歷史最高水平相比，比特幣的價格下降了20％以上，這引起了人們對陡峭市場逆轉的擔憂。 However, some analysts view this setback as a natural pause in the ongoing crypto cycle.

According to Timothy Peterson, an analyst at Cane Island Alternative Advisors and author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, this downturn remains moderate compared to previous bear markets and fits into a classic phase of consolidation rather than a structural collapse.

根據甘蔗島替代顧問的分析師，梅特卡夫定律的作者蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的說法，與以前的熊市相比，這種衰退仍然溫和，並適合經典的鞏固階段，而不是結構性崩潰。

Temporary Retreat: A Controlled “Bear Market”?

臨時撤退：受控的“熊市”？

Peterson describes the current Bitcoin decline as follows:

彼得森描述了當前的比特幣下降，如下所示：

“Only 4 bear markets have been more severe than the current one in terms of duration: 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. Usually, we get one a year, and they last for about 3 months.”

“就持續時間而言，只有4個熊市比當前的市場更為嚴重：2018、2021、2022和2024。通常，我們每年得到一個，它們持續約3個月。”

This analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency could find stability around early summer if the usual pattern repeats this year.

該分析表明，如果通常的模式在今年重複，則加密貨幣可以在初夏左右發現穩定性。

If this analysis proves correct, it could reactivate the speculative appetite of some short-term investors. The bullish momentum post-April, if it occurs, could serve as a catalyst for new momentum.

如果該分析證明是正確的，則可以重新激活一些短期投資者的投機性。 4月後，看漲的勢頭可以作為新勢頭的催化劑。

But at this stage, macroeconomic conditions and the absence of new capital remain obstacles to a significant reversal. Thus, the scenario of a spring rebound relies on a precarious balance between technical confidence and external triggers.

但是在這個階段，宏觀經濟狀況和缺乏新資本仍然存在重大逆轉的障礙。因此，春季反彈的情況取決於技術信心和外部觸發器之間的不穩定平衡。

The Weight of Macroeconomic Tensions on Market Sentiment

市場情緒上的宏觀經濟緊張局勢的重量

Beyond technical analysis, other signals weigh on market morale. In the background, trade tensions triggered by President Trump’s recent tariff policies have rekindled fears of a global slowdown.

除了技術分析之外，其他信號還壓在市場士氣上。在背景下，特朗普總統最近的關稅政策引起的貿易緊張局勢重新點燃了對全球放緩的擔憂。

These announcements led to a simultaneous drop in Bitcoin and other risky assets, which temporarily undermined the narrative of Bitcoin as a “safe haven”.

這些公告導致比特幣和其他風險資產同時下降，這暫時破壞了比特幣作為“避風港”的敘述。

“Investor appetite for speculative assets is waning due to the trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty,” confirms Nicolai Sondergaard, analyst at Nansen.

Nansen的分析師Nicolai Sondergaard證實：“由於貿易戰和宏觀經濟的不確定性，投資者對投機資產的需求正在減弱。”

This disengagement is reflected in on-chain data. Glassnode’s latest report shows that “Hot Supply” (the proportion of BTC held for less than a week) has dropped from 5.9% in November 2024 to just 2.3% on March 20, 2025.

這種脫節反映在鏈上數據中。 GlassNode的最新報告顯示，“熱供應”（持有不到一周的BTC的比例）已從2024年11月的5.9％下降到2025年3月20日的2.3％。

Meanwhile, a study by CryptoQuant highlights that the majority of retail investors are already in Bitcoin, which reduces hopes for an influx of new capital in the short term. This context limits the prospects for an immediate rebound, despite hopes for a potential rally post-April.

同時，CryptoQuant的一項研究強調，大多數散戶投資者已經在比特幣中，這減少了短期內新資本的希望。儘管希望在4月後進行潛在的集會，但這種情況限制了立即反彈的前景。

Far from a mere technical movement, this phase of retreat informs on the market’s persistent fragility in the face of external shocks. If Timothy Peterson’s projections materialize, the market could find a certain balance by early summer. But in the absence of favorable macroeconomic signals or renewed momentum, Bitcoin is likely to remain under pressure.

這一撤退階段遠非僅僅是技術運動，這​​在面對外部衝擊時就可以告知市場的持續脆弱性。如果蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）的預測實現，市場可能會在初夏之前找到一定的平衡。但是，在沒有有利的宏觀經濟信號或更新的動量的情況下，比特幣可能會保持壓力。

It remains to be seen whether the current resistance constitutes a solid base for a new bullish phase, or simply a temporary lull before further turbulence.

當前的電阻是新的看漲階段的固體基礎，還是只是在進一步的湍流之前暫時停滯，還有待觀察。