Bitcoin is wavering, down more than 20% from its all-time high, reigniting fears of a sharp reversal.

Bitcoin is wavering, down more than 20% from its all-time high, reigniting fears of a sharp reversal. However, some see it as just a pause in an ongoing cycle.

Bitcoin price has declined by more than 20% from its all-time high, sparking fears of a steep market reversal. However, some analysts view this setback as a natural pause in the ongoing crypto cycle.

According to Timothy Peterson, an analyst at Cane Island Alternative Advisors and author of Metcalfe’s Law as a Model for Bitcoin’s Value, this downturn remains moderate compared to previous bear markets and fits into a classic phase of consolidation rather than a structural collapse.

Temporary Retreat: A Controlled “Bear Market”?

Peterson describes the current Bitcoin decline as follows:

“Only 4 bear markets have been more severe than the current one in terms of duration: 2018, 2021, 2022, and 2024. Usually, we get one a year, and they last for about 3 months.”

This analysis suggests that the cryptocurrency could find stability around early summer if the usual pattern repeats this year.

If this analysis proves correct, it could reactivate the speculative appetite of some short-term investors. The bullish momentum post-April, if it occurs, could serve as a catalyst for new momentum.

But at this stage, macroeconomic conditions and the absence of new capital remain obstacles to a significant reversal. Thus, the scenario of a spring rebound relies on a precarious balance between technical confidence and external triggers.

The Weight of Macroeconomic Tensions on Market Sentiment

Beyond technical analysis, other signals weigh on market morale. In the background, trade tensions triggered by President Trump’s recent tariff policies have rekindled fears of a global slowdown.

These announcements led to a simultaneous drop in Bitcoin and other risky assets, which temporarily undermined the narrative of Bitcoin as a “safe haven”.

“Investor appetite for speculative assets is waning due to the trade war and macroeconomic uncertainty,” confirms Nicolai Sondergaard, analyst at Nansen.

This disengagement is reflected in on-chain data. Glassnode’s latest report shows that “Hot Supply” (the proportion of BTC held for less than a week) has dropped from 5.9% in November 2024 to just 2.3% on March 20, 2025.

Meanwhile, a study by CryptoQuant highlights that the majority of retail investors are already in Bitcoin, which reduces hopes for an influx of new capital in the short term. This context limits the prospects for an immediate rebound, despite hopes for a potential rally post-April.

Far from a mere technical movement, this phase of retreat informs on the market’s persistent fragility in the face of external shocks. If Timothy Peterson’s projections materialize, the market could find a certain balance by early summer. But in the absence of favorable macroeconomic signals or renewed momentum, Bitcoin is likely to remain under pressure.

It remains to be seen whether the current resistance constitutes a solid base for a new bullish phase, or simply a temporary lull before further turbulence.