期权到期前比特币波动平静

比特币 (BTC) 从历史高位大幅回调 10%，跌至 65,500 美元。这种下降趋势缓解了市场波动，增强了人们对周五比特币期权到期的预期。数据分析表明，隐含波动率（IV）下行压力释放，鲸鱼活动主要集中在比特币减半后购买看涨期权。

Bitcoin Volatility Subsides as Options Expiry Nears

随着期权到期日临近，比特币波动性减弱

The world's premier cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), has experienced a significant 10% retracement from its all-time high, falling to a low of $65,500. This decline has contributed to a reduction in overall market volatility, as traders anticipate the expiry of Bitcoin options contracts on Friday.

全球首屈一指的加密货币比特币 (BTC) 已从历史高点大幅回撤 10%，跌至 65,500 美元的低点。由于交易员预计比特币期权合约将于周五到期，这种下跌导致整体市场波动性减少。

Options Market Analysis

期权市场分析

Data from analytics platform Greeks.Live indicates that BTC implied volatility (IV) has continued to decline, with the Dvol metric falling below 70%. This suggests a sustained downward pressure on IV, similar to observations made at the end of March.

分析平台 Greeks.Live 的数据显示，BTC 隐含波动率 (IV) 持续下降，Dvol 指标跌破 70%。这表明 IV 存在持续下行压力，与 3 月底的观察结果类似。

Recent trading activity has revealed a notable decline in block trading, where large investors purchase or sell significant amounts of call options. This decrease is notable, as whales have been known to play a significant role in Bitcoin's price movements, particularly post-halving.

最近的交易活动显示大宗交易显着下降，大宗交易中大型投资者购买或出售大量看涨期权。这种下降是值得注意的，因为众所周知，鲸鱼在比特币的价格变动中发挥着重要作用，尤其是在减半后。

Additionally, Greeks.Live data shows that approximately 18,000 BTC options contracts, representing a notional value of $1.2 billion, are set to expire on Friday. The Put Call Ratio stands at 0.64, indicating a slightly higher concentration of put options, which grant the right to sell at a specified price. The Maxpain point, where the highest amount of options contracts expire worthless, is currently at $68,000.

此外，Greeks.Live 数据显示，大约 18,000 份 BTC 期权合约（名义价值为 12 亿美元）将于周五到期。看跌期权比率为 0.64，表明看跌期权的集中度略高，授予以指定价格出售的权利。 Maxpain 点（最高数量的期权合约到期时毫无价值）目前为 68,000 美元。

Market Dynamics

市场动态

The recent market correction coincides with a weaker overall performance in the cryptocurrency sector. The $70,000 level has emerged as a resistance point, with short-sellers profiting from price declines. Selling call options has been the dominant trading strategy, accompanied by a general reduction in implied volatilities across various timeframes.

最近的市场调整恰逢加密货币行业整体表现疲软。 70,000 美元的水平已成为一个阻力点，卖空者从价格下跌中获利。卖出看涨期权一直是主要的交易策略，伴随着不同时间范围内隐含波动率的普遍下降。

While Bitcoin continues to benefit from post-halving sentiment, other cryptocurrencies have been experiencing a short-term bearish period. Furthermore, inflows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have slowed down, as the market digests the recent premiums associated with ETF launches.

虽然比特币继续受益于减半后的情绪，但其他加密货币却经历了短期看跌期。此外，随着市场消化近期与 ETF 发行相关的溢价，流入加密货币交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的速度已经放缓。

BTC ETF Flows Moderate

BTC ETF 流量温和

Net inflows into the Bitcoin ETF market have diminished this week, hovering around $100 million per day. Notably, outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have reached monthly lows. Meanwhile, inflows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) have also tapered off.

本周比特币 ETF 市场的净流入有所减少，每天徘徊在 1 亿美元左右。值得注意的是，灰度比特币信托（GBTC）的资金流出已达到月度低点。与此同时，流入贝莱德 iShares 比特币信托 (IBIT) 和富达 (Fidelity) 比特币 ETF (FBTC) 的资金也逐渐减少。

Despite the recent moderation, Bitcoin ETF inflows have played a significant role in the price rally that pushed BTC to $73,500 over the past two months.

尽管最近有所放缓，但比特币 ETF 的流入在价格上涨中发挥了重要作用，在过去两个月将 BTC 推升至 73,500 美元。

After-Hours Price Surges

盘后价格飙升

Bloomberg ETF strategist Eric Balchunas has observed a notable trend in Bitcoin's price behavior since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Approximately 40% of Bitcoin's gains have occurred after trading hours, resulting in substantial price gaps between closing and opening prices. This suggests that institutional investors may be playing a role in price movements outside of regular trading hours.

彭博 ETF 策略师 Eric Balchunas 观察到，自比特币 ETF 推出以来，比特币价格行为出现了显着趋势。比特币大约 40% 的涨幅发生在交易时间之后，导致收盘价和开盘价之间存在巨大的价差。这表明机构投资者可能在正常交易时间之外的价格变动中发挥作用。

Conclusion

结论

As Bitcoin options contracts approach their expiry date, the market has experienced increased volatility. However, the recent price correction has led to a decline in overall market volatility. Traders are now eagerly awaiting the outcome of the options expiry on Friday, which could provide further insights into the direction of Bitcoin's price.

随着比特币期权合约临近到期日，市场波动加剧。不过，近期价格调整导致整体市场波动性下降。交易者现在急切地等待周五期权到期的结果，这可能会为比特币价格的走向提供进一步的见解。