期權到期前比特幣波動平靜

比特幣 (BTC) 從歷史高點大幅回檔 10%，跌至 65,500 美元。這種下降趨勢緩解了市場波動，增強了人們對週五比特幣選擇權到期的預期。數據分析表明，隱含波動率（IV）下行壓力釋放，鯨魚活動主要集中在比特幣減半後購買看漲期權。

Bitcoin Volatility Subsides as Options Expiry Nears

隨著選擇權到期日臨近，比特幣波動減弱

The world's premier cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (BTC), has experienced a significant 10% retracement from its all-time high, falling to a low of $65,500. This decline has contributed to a reduction in overall market volatility, as traders anticipate the expiry of Bitcoin options contracts on Friday.

全球首屈一指的加密貨幣比特幣 (BTC) 已從歷史高點大幅回撤 10%，跌至 65,500 美元的低點。由於交易員預計比特幣選擇權合約將於週五到期，這種下跌導致整體市場波動性減少。

Options Market Analysis

期權市場分析

Data from analytics platform Greeks.Live indicates that BTC implied volatility (IV) has continued to decline, with the Dvol metric falling below 70%. This suggests a sustained downward pressure on IV, similar to observations made at the end of March.

分析平台 Greeks.Live 的數據顯示，BTC 隱含波動率 (IV) 持續下降，Dvol 指標跌破 70%。這表明 IV 存在持續下行壓力，與 3 月底的觀察結果類似。

Recent trading activity has revealed a notable decline in block trading, where large investors purchase or sell significant amounts of call options. This decrease is notable, as whales have been known to play a significant role in Bitcoin's price movements, particularly post-halving.

最近的交易活動顯示大宗交易顯著下降，大宗交易中大型投資者購買或出售大量看漲期權。這種下降是值得注意的，因為眾所周知，鯨魚在比特幣的價格變動中發揮重要作用，尤其是在減半後。

Additionally, Greeks.Live data shows that approximately 18,000 BTC options contracts, representing a notional value of $1.2 billion, are set to expire on Friday. The Put Call Ratio stands at 0.64, indicating a slightly higher concentration of put options, which grant the right to sell at a specified price. The Maxpain point, where the highest amount of options contracts expire worthless, is currently at $68,000.

此外，Greeks.Live 數據顯示，約 18,000 份 BTC 選擇權合約（名義價值為 12 億美元）將於週五到期。看跌期權比率為 0.64，表示看跌期權的集中度略高，授予以指定價格出售的權利。 Maxpain 點（最高數量的選擇合約到期時毫無價值）目前為 68,000 美元。

Market Dynamics

市場動態

The recent market correction coincides with a weaker overall performance in the cryptocurrency sector. The $70,000 level has emerged as a resistance point, with short-sellers profiting from price declines. Selling call options has been the dominant trading strategy, accompanied by a general reduction in implied volatilities across various timeframes.

最近的市場調整恰逢加密貨幣產業整體表現疲軟。 70,000 美元的水平已成為一個阻力點，賣空者從價格下跌中獲利。賣出買權一直是主要的交易策略，伴隨著不同時間範圍內隱含波動率的普遍下降。

While Bitcoin continues to benefit from post-halving sentiment, other cryptocurrencies have been experiencing a short-term bearish period. Furthermore, inflows into cryptocurrency exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have slowed down, as the market digests the recent premiums associated with ETF launches.

雖然比特幣繼續受益於減半後的情緒，但其他加密貨幣卻經歷了短期看跌期。此外，隨著市場消化近期與 ETF 發行相關的溢價，流入加密貨幣交易所交易基金 (ETF) 的速度已經放緩。

BTC ETF Flows Moderate

BTC ETF 流量溫和

Net inflows into the Bitcoin ETF market have diminished this week, hovering around $100 million per day. Notably, outflows from Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) have reached monthly lows. Meanwhile, inflows into BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity's Bitcoin ETF (FBTC) have also tapered off.

本週比特幣 ETF 市場的淨流入有所減少，每天徘徊在 1 億美元左右。值得注意的是，灰階比特幣信託（GBTC）的資金流出已達到月低點。同時，流入貝萊德 iShares 比特幣信託 (IBIT) 和富達 (Fidelity) 比特幣 ETF (FBTC) 的資金也逐漸減少。

Despite the recent moderation, Bitcoin ETF inflows have played a significant role in the price rally that pushed BTC to $73,500 over the past two months.

儘管最近有所放緩，但比特幣 ETF 的流入在價格上漲中發揮了重要作用，在過去兩個月將 BTC 推升至 73,500 美元。

After-Hours Price Surges

盤後價格飆升

Bloomberg ETF strategist Eric Balchunas has observed a notable trend in Bitcoin's price behavior since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs. Approximately 40% of Bitcoin's gains have occurred after trading hours, resulting in substantial price gaps between closing and opening prices. This suggests that institutional investors may be playing a role in price movements outside of regular trading hours.

彭博 ETF 策略師 Eric Balchunas 觀察到，自從比特幣 ETF 推出以來，比特幣價格行為出現了顯著趨勢。比特幣大約 40% 的漲幅發生在交易時間之後，導致收盤價和開盤價之間存在巨大的價差。這表明機構投資者可能在正常交易時間以外的價格變動中發揮作用。

Conclusion

結論

As Bitcoin options contracts approach their expiry date, the market has experienced increased volatility. However, the recent price correction has led to a decline in overall market volatility. Traders are now eagerly awaiting the outcome of the options expiry on Friday, which could provide further insights into the direction of Bitcoin's price.

隨著比特幣選擇權合約接近到期日，市場波動加劇。不過，近期價格調整導致整體市場波動性下降。交易者現在急切地等待週五期權到期的結果，這可能會為比特幣價格的走向提供進一步的見解。