特朗普美国大选胜利后，比特币飙升至历史新高

前总理他信·西那瓦上周在为泰党研讨会上发表讲话后，关于比特币的争论在泰国重新出现。

Bitcoin's record-breaking surge to US$106,000 following Donald Trump's US presidential election victory has reignited the debate over cryptocurrency in Thailand, especially after remarks made by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra at a Pheu Thai Party seminar last week.

唐纳德·特朗普赢得美国总统大选后，比特币破纪录飙升至 106,000 美元，重新引发了泰国有关加密货币的争论，特别是在前总理他信·西那瓦 (Thaksin Shinawatra) 上周在为泰党研讨会上发表讲话之后。

Mr Thaksin proposed adopting Bitcoin in a restricted area first, such as utilising a sandbox pilot project in Phuket to encourage digital currency holders to spend their digital money in the country. He also raised the idea of creating a stablecoin backed by government bonds.

他信先生建议首先在限制区域采用比特币，例如利用普吉岛的沙箱试点项目来鼓励数字货币持有者在该国使用数字货币。他还提出了创建由政府债券支持的稳定币的想法。

However, this proposal has sparked concerns, with the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) warning that the project could falter due to the inherent volatility of digital currencies.

然而，这一提议引发了担忧，泰国发展研究所（TDRI）警告称，由于数字货币固有的波动性，该项目可能会陷入困境。

Additionally, the idea of a government-backed coin risks adding confusion to the economy, as it would potentially create a new unit that would compete with the baht.

此外，政府支持的硬币的想法可能会给经济带来混乱，因为它可能会创建一个与泰铢竞争的新单位。

According to TDRI, the central banks of many countries are generally opposed to such steps, fearing they could undermine confidence in local currencies and complicate their usage.

TDRI 表示，许多国家的央行普遍反对此类举措，担心这会削弱人们对当地货币的信心，并使本国货币的使用变得复杂化。

RISKS TO THE BAHT

泰铢面临的风险

Investment strategists believe the possibility of Thailand using Bitcoin or other digital coins as a medium of exchange similar to the use of the baht is low, saying it would pose risks to the stability of the baht and confidence in the country's financial system.

投资策略师认为，泰国使用比特币或其他数字货币作为类似于使用泰铢的交易媒介的可能性很低，称这会对泰铢的稳定和对该国金融体系的信心构成风险。

They believe Thailand must first await the results of experiments in leading economic nations before making a final decision.

他们认为，泰国必须首先等待主要经济国家的实验结果，然后才能做出最终决定。

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched a regulatory sandbox in August allowing selected service providers to experiment with digital assets under relaxed regulatory scrutiny.

美国证券交易委员会 (SEC) 于 8 月启动了监管沙箱，允许选定的服务提供商在宽松的监管审查下试验数字资产。

Thanathat Srisawast, a strategist at Tisco Economic Strategy Unit (ESU), said if a policy were implemented that allowed for Bitcoin usage, Thailand would move ahead of the US by allowing the use of Bitcoin as a legitimate medium of exchange in the way that El Salvador does.

Tisco 经济战略部门 (ESU) 策略师 Thanathat Srisawast 表示，如果实施允许使用比特币的政策，泰国将领先于美国，允许使用比特币作为合法的交易媒介，就像 El萨尔瓦多确实如此。

He believes some shops in Thailand have already accepted Bitcoin in exchange for baht.

他认为泰国的一些商店已经接受比特币兑换泰铢。

"If we want to go ahead with it seriously, it is not necessary to use a sandbox only in Phuket. It should be open for testing everywhere. Some foreign tourists have already used Bitcoin in exchange for baht," said Mr Thanathat.

“如果我们想认真推进，没有必要只在普吉岛使用沙箱。它应该在各地开放测试。一些外国游客已经使用比特币兑换泰铢，”塔纳塔先生说。

"If Bitcoin could be used for payments, the process must not be complicated. Also, we might need to wait for the supply of digital currencies in the system to increase first before we carry out a test of using digital coins instead of the baht," he noted.

“如果比特币可以用来支付，过程一定不会复杂。而且，我们可能需要先等待系统中数字货币的供应增加，然后再进行使用数字货币代替泰铢的测试， “他指出。

To support that policy, Thailand must create a coin that resembles a central bank digital currency (CBDC), a form of digital currency issued by a country's central bank, he said.

他说，为了支持这一政策，泰国必须创造一种类似于中央银行数字货币（CBDC）的硬币，CBDC是一国中央银行发行的一种数字货币。

It resembles a cryptocurrency, but its value is fixed by the central bank and is equivalent to the country's fiat currency.

它类似于加密货币，但其价值由中央银行固定，相当于该国的法定货币。

It also needs to have a strong security system and needs a backup plan in case the internet system crashes, he added.

他补充说，它还需要拥有强大的安全系统，并需要一个备份计划，以防互联网系统崩溃。

"The former premier may have seen that many people are interested in Bitcoin, so he thinks this is the right time to push through such a policy," he said.

“前总理可能看到很多人对比特币感兴趣，所以他认为现在是推动这样一项政策的正确时机，”他说。

In his view, Thailand might first need to examine the lessons learned in other countries because if the country were to make a mistake in rolling out such a policy, it would damage the credibility of the government and the Bank of Thailand. Therefore, the country must consider it carefully.

他认为，泰国可能首先需要吸取其他国家的经验教训，因为如果该国在推出此类政策时犯了错误，将会损害政府和泰国银行的信誉。因此，国家必须慎重考虑。

"If we try to do it in a small project like a sandbox, if there is a mistake, it can still be controlled and if it doesn't work, we can just stop the project," said Mr Thanatat.

“如果我们尝试在像沙箱这样的小项目中做到这一点，如果出现错误，它仍然可以控制，如果不起作用，我们可以停止该项目，”塔纳塔先生说。

Meanwhile, the reason behind the proposal for issuing a coin backed by government bonds has not yet become fully apparent.

与此同时，发行政府债券支持的硬币的提议背后的原因尚未完全明朗。

"Maybe the government want to encourage the use of Bitcoin and other digital currencies. It is very difficult to guess what form it would take. We will have to wait for further details."

“也许政府想鼓励使用比特币和其他数字货币。很难猜测它会采取什么形式。我们将不得不等待进一步的细节。”

Mr Thanatat said he believes Bitcoin investments will continue to grow next year, thanks to President-elect Trump's policy to support it. But, according to a recent survey, some Bitcoins have been mislaid, or cannot be recovered.

塔纳塔特表示，他相信明年比特币投资将继续增长，这要归功于当选总统特朗普的支持政策。但是，根据最近的一项调查，一些比特币已经丢失，或者无法找回。

Several early adopters of Bitcoin say they do not collect them seriously and it is estimated that around 5 million Bitcoins have been "lost".

一些比特币的早期采用者表示，他们并没有认真收集比特币，估计大约有 500 万个比特币已经“丢失”。

It has been estimated that there are over 10 million Bitcoins currently in circulation. New mining each year accounts for around 100,000 coins each year. If the US seriously promotes Bitcoin, other countries may follow the trend adopted by the world's major economic power, he said.

据估计，目前流通的比特币数量超过 1000 万枚。每年新开采的货币数量约为 100,000 个。他说，如果美国认真推广比特币，其他国家可能会效仿世界主要经济大国的趋势。

Asadej Kongsiri, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), said the SET so far has no policy to support cryptocurrency trading. However, the bourse is studying the possibility of developing Thailand into a digital token trading centre.

泰国证券交易所（SET）总裁Asadej Kongsiri表示，SET迄今为止没有支持加密货币交易的政策。然而，该交易所正在研究将泰国发展成为数字代币交易中心的可能性。

NO CLEAR BENEFITS

没有明显的好处

Phuket has been put forward as a candidate for the pilot project, which would enable cryptocurrency holders to spend their digital coins for transactions carried out within the province.

普吉岛已被提议作为试点项目的候选者，该项目将使加密货币持有者能够使用他们的数字硬币在该省内进行交易。

Thanet Tantipiriyakit

萨尼特·坦蒂皮里亚吉特