川普美國大選勝利後，比特幣飆升至歷史新高

前總理他信·西那瓦上週在為泰黨研討會上發表講話後，關於比特幣的爭論在泰國重新出現。

Bitcoin's record-breaking surge to US$106,000 following Donald Trump's US presidential election victory has reignited the debate over cryptocurrency in Thailand, especially after remarks made by former premier Thaksin Shinawatra at a Pheu Thai Party seminar last week.

唐納德·川普贏得美國總統大選後，比特幣破紀錄飆升至106,000 美元，重新引發了泰國有關加密貨幣的爭論，特別是在前總理他信·西那瓦(Thaksin Shinawatra) 上週在為泰黨研討會上發表演說之後。

Mr Thaksin proposed adopting Bitcoin in a restricted area first, such as utilising a sandbox pilot project in Phuket to encourage digital currency holders to spend their digital money in the country. He also raised the idea of creating a stablecoin backed by government bonds.

他信先生建議首先在限制區域採用比特幣，例如利用普吉島的沙箱試點計畫來鼓勵數位貨幣持有者在該國使用數位貨幣。他還提出了創建由政府債券支持的穩定幣的想法。

However, this proposal has sparked concerns, with the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI) warning that the project could falter due to the inherent volatility of digital currencies.

然而，這項提議引發了擔憂，泰國發展研究所（TDRI）警告稱，由於數位貨幣固有的波動性，該項目可能會陷入困境。

Additionally, the idea of a government-backed coin risks adding confusion to the economy, as it would potentially create a new unit that would compete with the baht.

此外，政府支持的硬幣的想法可能會給經濟帶來混亂，因為它可能會創建一個與泰銖競爭的新單位。

According to TDRI, the central banks of many countries are generally opposed to such steps, fearing they could undermine confidence in local currencies and complicate their usage.

TDRI 表示，許多國家的央行普遍反對此類舉措，擔心這會削弱人們對當地貨幣的信心，並使本國貨幣的使用變得複雜。

RISKS TO THE BAHT

泰銖面臨的風險

Investment strategists believe the possibility of Thailand using Bitcoin or other digital coins as a medium of exchange similar to the use of the baht is low, saying it would pose risks to the stability of the baht and confidence in the country's financial system.

投資策略師認為，泰國使用比特幣或其他數位貨幣作為類似於使用泰銖的交易媒介的可能性很低，稱這會對泰銖的穩定和對該國金融體系的信心構成風險。

They believe Thailand must first await the results of experiments in leading economic nations before making a final decision.

他們認為，泰國必須先等待主要經濟國家的實驗結果，才能做出最終決定。

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) launched a regulatory sandbox in August allowing selected service providers to experiment with digital assets under relaxed regulatory scrutiny.

美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 於 8 月啟動了監管沙箱，允許選定的服務提供者在寬鬆的監管審查下試驗數位資產。

Thanathat Srisawast, a strategist at Tisco Economic Strategy Unit (ESU), said if a policy were implemented that allowed for Bitcoin usage, Thailand would move ahead of the US by allowing the use of Bitcoin as a legitimate medium of exchange in the way that El Salvador does.

Tisco 經濟戰略部門 (ESU) 策略師 Thanathat Srisawast 表示，如果實施允許使用比特幣的政策，泰國將領先美國，允許使用比特幣作為合法的交易媒介，就像 El薩爾瓦多確實如此。

He believes some shops in Thailand have already accepted Bitcoin in exchange for baht.

他認為泰國的一些商店已經接受比特幣兌換泰銖。

"If we want to go ahead with it seriously, it is not necessary to use a sandbox only in Phuket. It should be open for testing everywhere. Some foreign tourists have already used Bitcoin in exchange for baht," said Mr Thanathat.

「如果我們想認真推進，沒有必要只在普吉島使用沙箱。它應該在各地開放測試。一些外國遊客已經使用比特幣兌換泰銖，」塔納塔先生說。

"If Bitcoin could be used for payments, the process must not be complicated. Also, we might need to wait for the supply of digital currencies in the system to increase first before we carry out a test of using digital coins instead of the baht," he noted.

「如果比特幣可以用來支付，過程一定不會複雜。而且，我們可能需要先等待系統中數位貨幣的供應增加，然後再進行使用數位貨幣代替泰銖的測試，」他指出。

To support that policy, Thailand must create a coin that resembles a central bank digital currency (CBDC), a form of digital currency issued by a country's central bank, he said.

他說，為了支持這項政策，泰國必須創造一種類似中央銀行數位貨幣（CBDC）的硬幣，CBDC是一國中央銀行發行的一種數位貨幣。

It resembles a cryptocurrency, but its value is fixed by the central bank and is equivalent to the country's fiat currency.

它類似於加密貨幣，但其價值由中央銀行固定，相當於該國的法定貨幣。

It also needs to have a strong security system and needs a backup plan in case the internet system crashes, he added.

他補充說，它還需要擁有強大的安全系統，並需要一個備份計劃，以防網路系統崩潰。

"The former premier may have seen that many people are interested in Bitcoin, so he thinks this is the right time to push through such a policy," he said.

「前總理可能看到很多人對比特幣感興趣，所以他認為現在是推動這樣一項政策的正確時機，」他說。

In his view, Thailand might first need to examine the lessons learned in other countries because if the country were to make a mistake in rolling out such a policy, it would damage the credibility of the government and the Bank of Thailand. Therefore, the country must consider it carefully.

他認為，泰國可能首先需要吸取其他國家的經驗教訓，因為如果該國在推出此類政策時犯了錯誤，將會損害政府和泰國銀行的信譽。因此，國家必須慎重考慮。

"If we try to do it in a small project like a sandbox, if there is a mistake, it can still be controlled and if it doesn't work, we can just stop the project," said Mr Thanatat.

「如果我們嘗試在像沙箱這樣的小項目中做到這一點，如果出現錯誤，它仍然可以控制，如果不起作用，我們可以停止該項目，」塔納塔先生說。

Meanwhile, the reason behind the proposal for issuing a coin backed by government bonds has not yet become fully apparent.

與此同時，發行政府債券支持的硬幣的提議背後的原因尚未完全明朗。

"Maybe the government want to encourage the use of Bitcoin and other digital currencies. It is very difficult to guess what form it would take. We will have to wait for further details."

“也許政府想鼓勵使用比特幣和其他數位貨幣。很難猜測它會採取什麼形式。我們將不得不等待進一步的細節。”

Mr Thanatat said he believes Bitcoin investments will continue to grow next year, thanks to President-elect Trump's policy to support it. But, according to a recent survey, some Bitcoins have been mislaid, or cannot be recovered.

塔納塔特表示，他相信明年比特幣投資將持續成長，這要歸功於當選總統川普的支持政策。但是，根據最近的一項調查，一些比特幣已經遺失，或者無法找回。

Several early adopters of Bitcoin say they do not collect them seriously and it is estimated that around 5 million Bitcoins have been "lost".

一些比特幣的早期採用者表示，他們並沒有認真收集比特幣，估計大約有 500 萬個比特幣已經「遺失」。

It has been estimated that there are over 10 million Bitcoins currently in circulation. New mining each year accounts for around 100,000 coins each year. If the US seriously promotes Bitcoin, other countries may follow the trend adopted by the world's major economic power, he said.

據估計，目前流通的比特幣數量超過 1,000 萬枚。每年新開採的貨幣數量約為 10 萬個。他說，如果美國認真推廣比特幣，其他國家可能會效法世界主要經濟大國的趨勢。

Asadej Kongsiri, president of the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET), said the SET so far has no policy to support cryptocurrency trading. However, the bourse is studying the possibility of developing Thailand into a digital token trading centre.

泰國證券交易所（SET）總裁Asadej Kongsiri表示，SET迄今沒有支援加密貨幣交易的政策。然而，該交易所正在研究將泰國發展成為數位代幣交易中心的可能性。

NO CLEAR BENEFITS

沒有明顯的好處

Phuket has been put forward as a candidate for the pilot project, which would enable cryptocurrency holders to spend their digital coins for transactions carried out within the province.

普吉島已被提議作為試點計畫的候選者，該計畫將使加密貨幣持有者能夠使用他們的數位硬幣在該省內進行交易。

Thanet Tantipiriyakit

薩尼特·坦蒂皮里亞吉特