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比特币与美国股市的相关性一直很高,但这两天,又出现了背离。
The correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market has always been high. However, in the past two days, a divergence has occurred again. On October 10, US stocks closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices both hitting record highs. Against the backdrop of US stocks reaching new highs, Bitcoin has seen a continuous decline. What is the reason behind this?
比特币与美国股市的相关性一直很高。然而这两天,分歧再次出现。 10月10日,美国股市收高,道琼斯指数和标准普尔500指数双双创下历史新高。在美股屡创新高的背景下,比特币却持续下跌。这背后的原因是什么?
The global financial market is like a pool of water; wherever there is a profit-making effect, it will become a gathering place for capital. There are clear signs of capital fleeing the crypto market to the A-share market. Recently, a wave of wealth-making in the A-share market has swept the globe. On October 8, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges broke 3 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 3.45 trillion yuan, a significant increase of over 800 billion yuan compared to September 30. Almost all sectors rose, with brokers and semiconductors experiencing a collective surge. The market saw a broad upward trend, with 5,029 stocks rising, 791 stocks hitting the daily limit, and 291 stocks declining. Even more rarely, on that morning, hundreds of broad-based ETFs hit their daily limit, while ETF market transactions expanded.
全球金融市场就像一潭水;凡是有盈利效应的地方,就会成为资本的聚集地。资本逃离加密货币市场流向A股市场的迹象十分明显。近期,A股市场一股致富热潮席卷全球。 10月8日,沪深股市成交量历史首次突破3万亿元,达到3.45万亿元,较9月30日大幅增长超8000亿元。板块几乎全部上涨,其中券商和半导体经历集体飙升。大盘整体呈普涨走势,上涨个股5029只,涨停个股791只,下跌个股291只。更罕见的是,当天上午,数百只基础广泛的ETF触及涨停,同时ETF市场交易扩大。
The latest weekly data from global capital flow monitoring agency EPFR shows that as of the week ending October 2, emerging market equity funds tracked by EPFR recorded the second-largest weekly inflow of funds this year, marking the 18th consecutive week of net inflows, with almost all of these funds flowing into the Chinese market. David Skarica, a senior strategist at Gain Capital, told reporters that the flow of funds is always crucial, and currently, global investors still have relatively light positions in the Chinese stock market. He cited Goldman Sachs channel data, stating that although hedge funds have rapidly increased their exposure to the Chinese market recently, it is still at the 55th percentile of the five-year range, while this figure reached the 91st percentile in January 2023. This also means that sudden market changes may lead to foreign capital continuing to increase its allocation to the Chinese stock market.
全球资本流向监测机构EPFR最新周度数据显示,截至10月2日当周,EPFR追踪的新兴市场股票基金录得今年第二大单周资金流入,连续第18周净流入,这些资金几乎全部流入中国市场。嘉盛高级策略师David Skarica对记者表示,资金流向始终至关重要,目前全球投资者在中国股市的持仓仍相对较轻。他援引高盛渠道数据称,虽然对冲基金近期快速增加了对中国市场的敞口,但仍处于五年区间的第55个百分位,而这一数字在2023年1月达到了第91个百分位。这也意味着市场突变可能导致外资继续加大对中国股市的配置。
In addition to the continuous inflow of funds, positive policies have also been consistently introduced in China. Most people in the A-share market believe this will lead to an unprecedented bull market. In addition to the two structural monetary policy tools established by the central bank, to implement the new "Nine National Policies," on September 24, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Mergers and Acquisitions Market for Listed Companies," further stimulating the vitality of the mergers and acquisitions market and supporting listed companies in injecting quality assets to enhance investment value; the "Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management (Draft for Comments)" was publicly solicited for opinions, requiring listed companies to enhance their quality as a basis for promoting the increase in investment value. Furthermore, on September 26, the Central Financial Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Long-term Capital into the Market," aiming to unblock the barriers for social security, insurance, and wealth management funds to enter the market and strive to boost the capital market.
除了资金不断流入,国内利好政策也不断出台。 A股市场多数人士认为,这将带来前所未有的牛市。除了央行设立的两项结构性货币政策工具外,为落实新“九大政策”,9月24日,证监会发布《关于深化上市公司并购市场改革的意见》进一步激发并购市场活力,支持上市公司注入优质资产提升投资价值; 《上市公司监管指引第10号——市值管理(征求意见稿)》公开征求意见,要求上市公司提升自身质量,作为促进投资价值提升的基础。此外,9月26日,中央金融办、证监会联合发布《关于促进长期资金入市的指导意见》,旨在畅通社保、保险、理财资金进入市场的障碍。着力提振资本市场。
Currently, the A-share market is seen as an investment haven in the global financial market, showing clear signs of capital inflow, which has also led to noticeable capital flight from the crypto market. This is specifically reflected in the continuous negative premium of USDT and the outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds. However, with the recent surge in A-shares, the market is experiencing a correction, and it is expected that A-shares will need to undergo a period of adjustment, which may slow the outflow of capital from the crypto market. Nevertheless, considering the currently low valuation of A-shares, it cannot be ruled out that capital may further flee from the crypto market or reduce investments in crypto assets, which would undoubtedly be detrimental to Bitcoin's rise.
目前,A股市场被视为全球金融市场的投资天堂,资本流入迹象明显,这也导致了加密货币市场明显的资本外逃。这具体体现在USDT的持续负溢价和比特币ETF资金的流出上。不过,随着近期A股的大涨,市场正在经历回调,预计A股将需要经历一段调整期,这可能会减缓加密货币市场的资金流出。不过,考虑到目前A股估值较低,不排除资本可能进一步逃离加密市场或减少对加密资产的投资,这无疑不利于比特币的上涨。
Since June this year, a major wave of selling in Bitcoin has come from the German government, the US government, and the sequential selling pressure from Mt. Gox compensation. Recently, expectations of selling pressure from the US government may also become a potential factor weighing on Bitcoin. According to Lookonchain, the US government seems to be free to sell 69,370 Bitcoins seized from Silk Road. On October 7, the US Supreme Court refused to hear the case regarding the ownership of the 69,370 BTC (approximately $4.33 billion) seized from Silk Road, allowing the government to have complete control over the seized funds.
今年6月以来,比特币的一大波抛售浪潮来自于德国政府、美国政府以及Mt.Gox补偿带来的连续抛售压力。近期,来自美国政府抛售压力的预期也可能成为打压比特币的潜在因素。据 Lookonchain 称,美国政府似乎可以随意出售从 Silk Road 查获的 69,370 枚比特币。 10 月 7 日,美国最高法院拒绝审理有关从 Silk Road 扣押的 69,370 BTC(约合 43.3 亿美元)所有权的案件,从而使政府能够完全控制扣押的资金。
The author believes that the Biden administration may not be very friendly towards the crypto market, and the US government seems likely to sell. The last time the US government sold was two months ago when it moved 29,800 BTC
笔者认为,拜登政府对加密货币市场可能不太友好,美国政府似乎很可能会抛售。美国政府上次出售是在两个月前,当时转移了 29,800 BTC
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