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比特幣與美國股市的相關性一直很高,但這兩天,又出現了背離。
The correlation between Bitcoin and the US stock market has always been high. However, in the past two days, a divergence has occurred again. On October 10, US stocks closed higher, with the Dow Jones and S&P 500 indices both hitting record highs. Against the backdrop of US stocks reaching new highs, Bitcoin has seen a continuous decline. What is the reason behind this?
比特幣與美國股市的相關性一直很高。然而這兩天,分歧再次出現。 10月10日,美國股市收高,道瓊斯指數和標準普爾500指數雙雙創下歷史新高。在美股屢創新高的背景下,比特幣卻持續下跌。這背後的原因是什麼?
The global financial market is like a pool of water; wherever there is a profit-making effect, it will become a gathering place for capital. There are clear signs of capital fleeing the crypto market to the A-share market. Recently, a wave of wealth-making in the A-share market has swept the globe. On October 8, the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges broke 3 trillion yuan for the first time in history, reaching 3.45 trillion yuan, a significant increase of over 800 billion yuan compared to September 30. Almost all sectors rose, with brokers and semiconductors experiencing a collective surge. The market saw a broad upward trend, with 5,029 stocks rising, 791 stocks hitting the daily limit, and 291 stocks declining. Even more rarely, on that morning, hundreds of broad-based ETFs hit their daily limit, while ETF market transactions expanded.
全球金融市場就像一潭水;凡是有獲利效應的地方,就會成為資本的聚集地。資本逃離加密貨幣市場流向A股市場的跡象十分明顯。近期,A股市場一股致富熱潮席捲全球。 10月8日,滬深股市成交量歷史首次突破3兆元,達到3.45兆元,較9月30日大幅增加超8,000億元。大盤整體呈普漲走勢,上漲個股5029只,漲停個股791只,下跌個股291只。更罕見的是,當天上午,數百隻基礎廣泛的ETF觸及漲停板,而ETF市場交易則擴大。
The latest weekly data from global capital flow monitoring agency EPFR shows that as of the week ending October 2, emerging market equity funds tracked by EPFR recorded the second-largest weekly inflow of funds this year, marking the 18th consecutive week of net inflows, with almost all of these funds flowing into the Chinese market. David Skarica, a senior strategist at Gain Capital, told reporters that the flow of funds is always crucial, and currently, global investors still have relatively light positions in the Chinese stock market. He cited Goldman Sachs channel data, stating that although hedge funds have rapidly increased their exposure to the Chinese market recently, it is still at the 55th percentile of the five-year range, while this figure reached the 91st percentile in January 2023. This also means that sudden market changes may lead to foreign capital continuing to increase its allocation to the Chinese stock market.
全球資本流向監測機構EPFR最新週度數據顯示,截至10月2日當週,EPFR追蹤的新興市場股票基金錄得今年第二大單週資金流入,連續第18週淨流入,這些資金幾乎全部流入中國市場。嘉盛資深策略師David Skarica對記者表示,資金流向始終至關重要,目前全球投資人在中國股市的持股仍相對較輕。他引述高盛通路數據稱,雖然對沖基金近期快速增加了對中國市場的敞口,但仍處於五年區間的第55個百分位,而這一數字在2023年1月達到了第91個百分位。
In addition to the continuous inflow of funds, positive policies have also been consistently introduced in China. Most people in the A-share market believe this will lead to an unprecedented bull market. In addition to the two structural monetary policy tools established by the central bank, to implement the new "Nine National Policies," on September 24, the China Securities Regulatory Commission issued "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Mergers and Acquisitions Market for Listed Companies," further stimulating the vitality of the mergers and acquisitions market and supporting listed companies in injecting quality assets to enhance investment value; the "Guidelines for the Supervision of Listed Companies No. 10 - Market Value Management (Draft for Comments)" was publicly solicited for opinions, requiring listed companies to enhance their quality as a basis for promoting the increase in investment value. Furthermore, on September 26, the Central Financial Office and the China Securities Regulatory Commission jointly issued "Guiding Opinions on Promoting Long-term Capital into the Market," aiming to unblock the barriers for social security, insurance, and wealth management funds to enter the market and strive to boost the capital market.
除了資金不斷流入,國內利好政策也不斷出台。 A股市場多數人士認為,這將帶來前所未有的多頭市場。除了央行設立的兩項結構性貨幣政策工具外,為落實新“九大政策”,9月24日,證監會發布《關於深化上市公司併購市場改革的意見》進一步激發併購市場活力,支持上市公司注入優質資產提升投資價值; 《上市公司監理指引第10號-市值管理(徵詢意見稿)》公開徵詢意見,要求上市公司提升自身品質,作為促進投資價值提升的基礎。此外,9月26日,中央金融辦、證監會聯合發布《關於促進長期資金入市的指導意見》,旨在暢通社保、保險、理財資金進入市場的障礙。
Currently, the A-share market is seen as an investment haven in the global financial market, showing clear signs of capital inflow, which has also led to noticeable capital flight from the crypto market. This is specifically reflected in the continuous negative premium of USDT and the outflow of Bitcoin ETF funds. However, with the recent surge in A-shares, the market is experiencing a correction, and it is expected that A-shares will need to undergo a period of adjustment, which may slow the outflow of capital from the crypto market. Nevertheless, considering the currently low valuation of A-shares, it cannot be ruled out that capital may further flee from the crypto market or reduce investments in crypto assets, which would undoubtedly be detrimental to Bitcoin's rise.
目前,A股市場被視為全球金融市場的投資天堂,資本流入跡像明顯,也導致了加密貨幣市場明顯的資本外逃。這具體體現在USDT的持續負溢價和比特幣ETF資金的流出。不過,隨著近期A股的大漲,市場正在經歷回調,預計A股將需要經歷一段調整期,這可能會減緩加密貨幣市場的資金流出。不過,考慮到目前A股估值較低,不排除資本可能進一步逃離加密市場或減少對加密資產的投資,這無疑不利於比特幣的上漲。
Since June this year, a major wave of selling in Bitcoin has come from the German government, the US government, and the sequential selling pressure from Mt. Gox compensation. Recently, expectations of selling pressure from the US government may also become a potential factor weighing on Bitcoin. According to Lookonchain, the US government seems to be free to sell 69,370 Bitcoins seized from Silk Road. On October 7, the US Supreme Court refused to hear the case regarding the ownership of the 69,370 BTC (approximately $4.33 billion) seized from Silk Road, allowing the government to have complete control over the seized funds.
今年6月以來,比特幣的一大波拋售浪潮來自於德國政府、美國政府以及Mt.Gox補償帶來的連續拋售壓力。近期,來自美國政府拋售壓力的預期也可能成為打壓比特幣的潛在因素。據 Lookonchain 稱,美國政府似乎可以隨意出售從 Silk Road 查獲的 69,370 枚比特幣。 10 月 7 日,美國最高法院拒絕審理有關從 Silk Road 扣押的 69,370 BTC(約 43.3 億美元)所有權的案件,從而使政府能夠完全控制扣押的資金。
The author believes that the Biden administration may not be very friendly towards the crypto market, and the US government seems likely to sell. The last time the US government sold was two months ago when it moved 29,800 BTC
筆者認為,拜登政府對加密貨幣市場可能不太友好,美國政府似乎很可能會拋售。美國政府上次出售是在兩個月前,當時轉移了 29,800 BTC
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