比特币：比美国国债更“避风港”

与传统金融市场相比，比特币的价格波动早已呈现出两种完全不同的趋势

Bitcoin has long exhibited two contrasting price trends compared to traditional financial markets, driven by distinct narratives.

与传统金融市场相比，在不同的叙述驱动下，比特币长期以来表现出两种截然不同的价格趋势。

During periods of high market sentiment and increased risk appetite, Bitcoin tends to move in tandem with U.S. stocks, displaying a high positive correlation. This is largely attributed to the participation of institutional investors, whose capital flow patterns align with other high-risk assets.

在市场情绪高涨、风险偏好上升的时期，比特币往往与美股走势同步，呈现出较高的正相关性。这很大程度上归功于机构投资者的参与，其资本流动模式与其他高风险资产一致。

However, during times of market panic or the occurrence of risk events, Bitcoin often decouples from U.S. stock trends and may even show negative correlation, especially when investors lose confidence in the traditional financial system.

然而，在市场恐慌或风险事件发生时，比特币往往与美股走势脱钩，甚至可能呈现负相关性，尤其是当投资者对传统金融体系失去信心时。

This dual narrative poses a unique challenge in defining Bitcoin's role—is it a part of risk assets or a potential safe-haven asset? Which narrative will prevail, particularly in the current scenario with Trump's presidency?

这种双重叙述对定义比特币的角色提出了独特的挑战——它是风险资产的一部分还是潜在的避险资产？哪种说法会占上风，特别是在特朗普担任总统的当前情况下？

Price Correlation: More "Safe-Haven" than U.S. Treasuries

价格相关性：比美国国债更“避险”

According to TradingView statistics, over the past decade, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has been 0.17, lower than other alternative assets.

据TradingView统计，过去十年，比特币与标普500指数的相关性为0.17，低于其他另类资产。

For instance, the correlation between the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and the S&P 500 during the same period was 0.42. While Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market has historically been low, this correlation has increased in recent years. In the past five years, its correlation has risen to 0.41.

例如，同期标普高盛商品指数与标普500指数之间的相关性为0.42。虽然比特币与股市的相关性历来较低，但近年来这种相关性有所增加。近五年来，其相关性已升至0.41。

However, given Bitcoin's strong volatility, this correlation data may not be fully reliable: the relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 showed a negative correlation of -0.76 on November 11, 2023 (around the FTX incident), but by January 2024, it had reached a positive correlation of 0.57.

然而，鉴于比特币的强烈波动性，这种相关性数据可能并不完全可靠：比特币与标准普尔 500 指数之间的关系在 2023 年 11 月 11 日（FTX 事件前后）呈现出 -0.76 的负相关性，但到 2024 年 1 月，它已经达到0.57的正相关性。

In contrast, the S&P 500 has performed relatively steadily, with an annual return rate of about 9% to 10%, serving as a benchmark for the U.S. economy. Although the overall return rate of the S&P 500 may be lower than that of Bitcoin, it excels in stability and lower volatility.

相比之下，标普500指数表现相对稳定，年回报率约为9%至10%，成为美国经济的风向标。虽然标普500指数的整体回报率可能低于比特币，但它在稳定性和波动性较低方面表现出色。

Logarithmic comparison of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index. Source: FRED

比特币和纳斯达克指数的对数比较。资料来源：弗雷德

It can be observed that during macro hot events, the two usually exhibit strong correlation: for example, during the market recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, both showed significant upward trends. This may reflect an increased demand for risk assets against the backdrop of loose monetary policy.

可以观察到，在宏观热点事件期间，两者通常表现出较强的相关性：例如，在2020年COVID-19大流行后的市场复苏期间，两者都呈现出明显的上升趋势。这可能反映出宽松货币政策背景下风险资产需求增加。

However, during other periods (such as 2022), the trends of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq diverged significantly, showing a weakening correlation, especially during periods of black swan events specific to the crypto market, where Bitcoin experienced unilateral crashes.

但在其他时期（如2022年），比特币与纳斯达克的走势出现明显背离，相关性减弱，尤其是在加密市场特有的黑天鹅事件时期，比特币出现单边崩盘。

Of course, in terms of periodic returns, Bitcoin can easily outperform the Nasdaq by a wide margin. However, purely from the perspective of price correlation data, the correlation between the two is indeed increasing.

当然，就周期性回报而言，比特币可以轻松大幅超越纳斯达克指数。不过，单纯从价格相关性数据来看，两者的相关性确实在增强。

A report released by WisdomTree also highlighted a similar observation, stating that although the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks is not high in absolute terms, recently this correlation is lower than the return correlation between the S&P 500 index and U.S. Treasuries.

WisdomTree发布的一份报告也强调了类似的观察，指出虽然比特币与美国股票之间的绝对相关性并不高，但近期这种相关性低于标准普尔500指数与美国国债之间的回报相关性。

Trillions of dollars in assets globally use the S&P 500 index as a benchmark or attempt to track its performance, making it one of the most closely watched indices in the world. If an asset can be found that has a -1.0 (completely inverse) and relatively stable correlation with the S&P 500 index, it would be highly sought after. This characteristic means that when the S&P 500 index performs negatively, this asset could potentially provide positive returns, demonstrating hedging characteristics.

全球数万亿美元的资产使用标准普尔 500 指数作为基准或试图跟踪其表现，使其成为全球最受关注的指数之一。如果能发现一种资产与标准普尔500指数具有-1.0（完全反向）且相对稳定的相关性，那么它将受到高度追捧。这一特征意味着，当标准普尔 500 指数表现不佳时，该资产可能会提供正回报，展现出对冲特性。

Although stocks are generally considered risk assets, U.S. Treasuries are viewed by many as closer to "risk-free" assets. The U.S. government can fulfill its debt obligations by printing money, although the market value of U.S. Treasuries, especially long-term ones, may still fluctuate.

尽管股票通常被视为风险资产，但许多人认为美国国债更接近“无风险”资产。美国政府可以通过印钞来履行债务义务，尽管美国国债尤其是长期国债的市场价值可能仍会波动。

A significant discussion point for 2024 is that the correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index and U.S. Treasuries is approaching 1.0 (positive correlation 1.0). This means that both asset classes may rise or fall simultaneously during the same period.

2024年的一个重要讨论点是标普500指数与美国国债之间的相关系数接近1.0（正相关1.0）。这意味着两种资产类别可能在同一时期同时上涨或下跌。

The simultaneous rise or fall of assets is contrary to the original intention of hedging. This phenomenon is similar to 2022, when both stocks and bonds recorded negative returns, contradicting many investors' expectations of risk diversification.

资产同时上涨或下跌，与套期保值的初衷相悖。这一现象与2022年类似，当时股票和债券均录得负收益，与许多投资者分散风险的预期相矛盾。

Currently, Bitcoin does not show strong hedging capabilities against the return rate of the S&P 500 index. From the data, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index is not significant. However, recently, the

目前，比特币对标普500指数收益率的对冲能力并不强。从数据来看，比特币与标普500指数的相关性并不显着。然而，最近，