比特幣：比美國公債更“避風港”

比特幣的價格波動長期以來呈現與傳統金融市場截然不同的兩個趨勢

Bitcoin has long exhibited two contrasting price trends compared to traditional financial markets, driven by distinct narratives.

與傳統金融市場相比，在不同的敘述驅動下，比特幣長期以來表現出兩種截然不同的價格趨勢。

During periods of high market sentiment and increased risk appetite, Bitcoin tends to move in tandem with U.S. stocks, displaying a high positive correlation. This is largely attributed to the participation of institutional investors, whose capital flow patterns align with other high-risk assets.

在市場情緒高漲、風險偏好上升的時期，比特幣往往與美股走勢同步，呈現較高的正相關。這很大程度上歸功於機構投資者的參與，其資本流動模式與其他高風險資產一致。

However, during times of market panic or the occurrence of risk events, Bitcoin often decouples from U.S. stock trends and may even show negative correlation, especially when investors lose confidence in the traditional financial system.

然而，在市場恐慌或風險事件發生時，比特幣往往與美股走勢脫鉤，甚至可能呈現負相關性，尤其是當投資人對傳統金融體系失去信心時。

This dual narrative poses a unique challenge in defining Bitcoin's role—is it a part of risk assets or a potential safe-haven asset? Which narrative will prevail, particularly in the current scenario with Trump's presidency?

這種雙重敘事對定義比特幣的角色提出了獨特的挑戰——它是風險資產的一部分還是潛在的避險資產？哪一種說法會佔上風，特別是在川普擔任總統的當前情況下？

Price Correlation: More "Safe-Haven" than U.S. Treasuries

物價相關性：比美國國債更“避險”

According to TradingView statistics, over the past decade, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index has been 0.17, lower than other alternative assets.

根據TradingView統計，過去十年，比特幣與標普500指數的相關性為0.17，低於其他另類資產。

For instance, the correlation between the S&P Goldman Sachs Commodity Index and the S&P 500 during the same period was 0.42. While Bitcoin's correlation with the stock market has historically been low, this correlation has increased in recent years. In the past five years, its correlation has risen to 0.41.

例如，同期標普高盛商品指數與標普500指數之間的相關性為0.42。雖然比特幣與股市的相關性歷來較低，但近年來這種相關性有所增加。近五年來，其相關性已升至0.41。

However, given Bitcoin's strong volatility, this correlation data may not be fully reliable: the relationship between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 showed a negative correlation of -0.76 on November 11, 2023 (around the FTX incident), but by January 2024, it had reached a positive correlation of 0.57.

然而，鑑於比特幣的強烈波動性，這種相關性數據可能並不完全可靠：比特幣與標準普爾500 指數之間的關係在2023 年11 月11 日（FTX 事件前後）呈現-0.76 的負相關性，但到2024 年1 月，它已經達到0.57的正相關性。

In contrast, the S&P 500 has performed relatively steadily, with an annual return rate of about 9% to 10%, serving as a benchmark for the U.S. economy. Although the overall return rate of the S&P 500 may be lower than that of Bitcoin, it excels in stability and lower volatility.

相較之下，標普500指數表現相對穩定，年報酬率約9%至10%，成為美國經濟的風向標。雖然標普500指數的整體回報率可能低於比特幣，但它在穩定性和波動性較低方面表現出色。

Logarithmic comparison of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index. Source: FRED

比特幣和納斯達克指數的對數比較。來源：弗雷德

It can be observed that during macro hot events, the two usually exhibit strong correlation: for example, during the market recovery after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, both showed significant upward trends. This may reflect an increased demand for risk assets against the backdrop of loose monetary policy.

可以觀察到，在宏觀熱點事件期間，兩者通常表現出較強的相關性：例如，在2020年COVID-19大流行後的市場復甦期間，兩者都呈現出明顯的上升趨勢。這可能反映出寬鬆貨幣政策背景下風險資產需求增加。

However, during other periods (such as 2022), the trends of Bitcoin and the Nasdaq diverged significantly, showing a weakening correlation, especially during periods of black swan events specific to the crypto market, where Bitcoin experienced unilateral crashes.

但在其他時期（如2022年），比特幣與納斯達克的走勢出現明顯背離，相關性減弱，尤其是在加密市場特有的黑天鵝事件時期，比特幣出現單邊崩盤。

Of course, in terms of periodic returns, Bitcoin can easily outperform the Nasdaq by a wide margin. However, purely from the perspective of price correlation data, the correlation between the two is indeed increasing.

當然，就週期性回報而言，比特幣可以輕鬆大幅超越那斯達克指數。不過，單純從價格相關性數據來看，兩者的相關性確實在增強。

A report released by WisdomTree also highlighted a similar observation, stating that although the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks is not high in absolute terms, recently this correlation is lower than the return correlation between the S&P 500 index and U.S. Treasuries.

WisdomTree發布的報告也強調了類似的觀察，指出雖然比特幣與美國股票之間的絕對相關性並不高，但近期這種相關性低於標準普爾500指數與美國國債之間的回報相關性。

Trillions of dollars in assets globally use the S&P 500 index as a benchmark or attempt to track its performance, making it one of the most closely watched indices in the world. If an asset can be found that has a -1.0 (completely inverse) and relatively stable correlation with the S&P 500 index, it would be highly sought after. This characteristic means that when the S&P 500 index performs negatively, this asset could potentially provide positive returns, demonstrating hedging characteristics.

全球數兆美元的資產使用標準普爾 500 指數作為基準或試圖追蹤其表現，使其成為全球最受關注的指數之一。如果能發現一種資產與標準普爾500指數具有-1.0（完全反向）且相對穩定的相關性，那麼它將受到高度追捧。這項特徵意味著，當標準普爾 500 指數表現不佳時，該資產可能會提供正回報，展現出對沖特性。

Although stocks are generally considered risk assets, U.S. Treasuries are viewed by many as closer to "risk-free" assets. The U.S. government can fulfill its debt obligations by printing money, although the market value of U.S. Treasuries, especially long-term ones, may still fluctuate.

儘管股票通常被視為風險資產，但許多人認為美國國債更接近「無風險」資產。美國政府可以透過印鈔票來履行債務義務，儘管美國國債尤其是長期國債的市場價值可能仍會波動。

A significant discussion point for 2024 is that the correlation coefficient between the S&P 500 index and U.S. Treasuries is approaching 1.0 (positive correlation 1.0). This means that both asset classes may rise or fall simultaneously during the same period.

2024年的一個重要討論點是標普500指數與美國國債之間的相關係數接近1.0（正相關1.0）。這意味著兩種資產類別可能在同一時期同時上漲或下跌。

The simultaneous rise or fall of assets is contrary to the original intention of hedging. This phenomenon is similar to 2022, when both stocks and bonds recorded negative returns, contradicting many investors' expectations of risk diversification.

資產同時上漲或下跌，與避險的初衷相悖。這現象與2022年類似，當時股票和債券都錄得負收益，與許多投資人分散風險的預期相矛盾。

Currently, Bitcoin does not show strong hedging capabilities against the return rate of the S&P 500 index. From the data, the correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 index is not significant. However, recently, the

目前，比特幣對標普500指數收益率的對沖能力並不強。從數據來看，比特幣與標普500指數的相關性並不顯著。然而，最近，