谷歌声称取得突破，比特币面临量子威胁

奥西波维奇

A recent breakthrough in quantum computing technology could pose a significant threat to bitcoin's security, researchers and analysts warn.

研究人员和分析师警告说，量子计算技术最近的突破可能对比特币的安全构成重大威胁。

The nascent technology, which drew attention this month after Google claimed a breakthrough with its new Willow quantum-computing chip, could one day enable hackers to break the encryption that keeps bitcoin secure. Such a hack could torpedo bitcoin’s price, by allowing thieves to swipe coins out of supposedly secure digital wallets.

这项新兴技术本月在谷歌声称其新型 Willow 量子计算芯片取得突破后引起了人们的关注，有一天可能使黑客能够破解保证比特币安全的加密技术。这种黑客攻击可能会导致窃贼从所谓安全的数字钱包中盗取比特币，从而破坏比特币的价格。

Researchers say a quantum device powerful enough to crack bitcoin is likely a decade or more away. Still, advances in the technology pose a long-term risk, unless bitcoin’s fractious community of developers beef up its technology in a time-consuming upgrade.

研究人员表示，强大到足以破解比特币的量子设备可能还需要十年或更长时间。尽管如此，技术的进步仍会带来长期风险，除非比特币的开发者社区通过耗时的升级来加强其技术。

A quantum-powered attack on bitcoin could have harmful spillover effects on traditional financial markets, analysts warn.

分析师警告称，针对比特币的量子攻击可能会对传统金融市场产生有害的溢出效应。

“What you’ve got here is a time bomb waiting to explode, if and when someone gets that ability to develop quantum-computer hacking and decides to use that to target cryptocurrencies,” said Arthur Herman, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

哈德逊研究所高级研究员阿瑟·赫尔曼 (Arthur Herman) 表示：“如果有人具备开发量子计算机黑客技术并决定利用其来攻击加密货币，那么这就是一颗等待爆炸的定时炸弹。”总部位于华盛顿特区的智囊团

A 2022 Hudson Institute study estimated that a quantum hack of bitcoin would cause more than $3 trillion in losses across crypto and other markets and trigger a deep recession. Herman said the likely costs of a quantum hack have swelled since the study came out, as bitcoin has climbed to near $100,000 and grown into an increasingly mainstream investment asset.

哈德逊研究所 2022 年的一项研究估计，比特币的量子黑客攻击将给加密货币和其他市场造成超过 3 万亿美元的损失，并引发深度衰退。赫尔曼表示，自该研究发表以来，量子黑客的可能成本已经上升，因为比特币已攀升至近 10 万美元并成长为日益主流的投资资产。

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to create a strategic reserve for the government’s bitcoin holdings, a sort of digital Fort Knox. Quantum computing could allow thieves to raid that Fort Knox.

当选总统唐纳德·特朗普承诺为政府持有的比特币建立战略储备，类似于数字诺克斯堡。量子计算可以让窃贼袭击诺克斯堡。

Unlike standard computers, in which all data is fundamentally represented in either zeros or ones, quantum computers use the quirky properties of subatomic particles to represent data in “qubits,” which can exist in a continuum of states that are mixtures of zeros and ones.

标准计算机中所有数据基本上都用 0 或 1 表示，而量子计算机则不同，它使用亚原子粒子的奇特特性来表示“量子位”中的数据，“量子位”可以存在于由 0 和 1 混合而成的连续状态中。

That allows quantum computers to race through tasks that would take standard computers far longer than a human lifetime to solve. Such tasks could include discovering new medicines, forecasting weather—or cracking the encryption used to protect sensitive data.

这使得量子计算机能够完成一些标准计算机需要比人类寿命长得多的任务才能完成的任务。此类任务可能包括发现新药、预测天气或破解用于保护敏感数据的加密。

For instance, one common encryption method involves very large numbers called public keys, which are multiples of two big prime numbers. The two primes can be combined to generate what is known as the private key. Data can be encoded with the public key, and decoded with the private key. As the names suggest, users keep their private keys secret, but public keys might be shared.

例如，一种常见的加密方法涉及称为公钥的非常大的数字，它们是两个大素数的倍数。这两个素数可以组合起来生成所谓的私钥。数据可以使用公钥进行编码，并使用私钥进行解码。顾名思义，用户将私钥保密，但公钥可能会被共享。

The strength of this method is that it takes a vast amount of time for a standard computer to derive the private key from the public key, because of the difficulty of factoring—figuring out the primes that can be multiplied to yield the public key.

这种方法的优点在于，标准计算机需要花费大量时间从公钥导出私钥，因为分解（找出可以相乘以产生公钥的素数）的困难。

Quantum computing makes factoring far easier. An algorithm devised by a U.S. mathematician in 1994 makes it possible to factor huge numbers in minutes—provided that you have a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.

量子计算使因式分解变得更加容易。一位美国数学家于 1994 年设计的一种算法可以在几分钟内分解巨大的数字——前提是你有一台足够强大的量子计算机。

Such a breakthrough would threaten not just bitcoin, but traditional finance, because many online banking systems use variants of public-key cryptography. But bitcoin could be a particularly tempting target for quantum thieves, security experts warn.

这样的突破不仅会威胁比特币，还会威胁传统金融，因为许多网上银行系统都使用公钥加密的变体。但安全专家警告称，对于量子窃贼来说，比特币可能是一个特别诱人的目标。

“Bitcoin is going to get targeted like crazy,” said Skip Sanzeri, co-founder of QuSecure, a startup specializing in quantum-safe cybersecurity. “Banks have some regulation, some defense mechanisms and the ability to cover their clients, whereas bitcoin is the Wild West. Your wallet’s not going to reimburse you if your bitcoin gets stolen.”

“比特币将疯狂地成为攻击目标，”专注于量子安全网络安全的初创公司 QuSecure 的联合创始人 Skip Sanzeri 表示。 “银行有一些监管、一些防御机制以及保护客户的能力，而比特币则是狂野的西部。如果你的比特币被盗，你的钱包不会补偿你。”

While hackers have stolen bitcoin before, their attacks generally involved gaining unauthorized access to crypto exchanges. A quantum attack would be more insidious, because it would cast doubt on the security of the entire bitcoin network, not just on a few crypto exchanges with poor security.

虽然黑客以前曾窃取过比特币，但他们的攻击通常涉及未经授权访问加密货币交易所。量子攻击会更加阴险，因为它会让人们对整个比特币网络的安全性产生怀疑，而不仅仅是少数安全性较差的加密货币交易所。

Some troves of bitcoin are particularly susceptible to quantum thievery. In bitcoin’s early days, it was held in addresses with exposed public keys, including the roughly one million coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin’s mysterious creator. Some 1.72 million bitcoins—valued at more than $160 billion at current prices—are held in such addresses, which were later phased out, according to Galaxy Digital.

一些比特币宝藏特别容易受到量子盗窃。在比特币的早期，它保存在公开密钥的地址中，其中包括据信属于比特币神秘创造者中本聪的大约一百万枚比特币。据 Galaxy Digital 称，这些地址中保存着约 172 万枚比特币（按当前价格计算，价值超过 1600 亿美元），但这些地址后来被逐步淘汰。

Ultimately, all bitcoins are at risk once quantum computers become powerful enough. That is because hackers could steal coins being moved from one address to another during the 10-minute window that it takes for the bitcoin network to confirm such transfers.

最终，一旦量子计算机变得足够强大，所有比特币都将面临风险。这是因为，在比特币网络确认此类转移所需的 10 分钟时间内，黑客可能会窃取从一个地址转移到另一个地址的代币。

Some crypto veterans say there is still plenty of time for bitcoin to fix its vulnerabilities.

一些加密货币资深人士表示，比特币仍有足够的时间来修复其漏洞。

“There is definitely a quantum apocalypse on the horizon at some point in the future, but that point is a sufficiently long time away that there is no need for panic,” said Emin Gün Sirer, founder of the Avalanche cryptocurrency.

Avalanche 加密货币创始人 Emin Gün Sirer 表示：“未来某个时刻肯定会出现量子灾难，但距离那个时刻已经足够长了，所以没有必要恐慌。”

Bitcoin could be secured by adopting newer forms of encryption that can’t easily be cracked by quantum computers—but such an overhaul could take years, crypto executives say. Because of bitcoin’s decentralized nature, changing its technology requires broad consensus among people

加密行业高管表示，可以通过采用量子计算机不易破解的新型加密方式来保护比特币的安全，但这种彻底改革可能需要数年时间。由于比特币的去中心化性质，改变其技术需要人们的广泛共识