谷歌聲稱有突破，比特幣面臨量子威脅

歐西波維奇

A recent breakthrough in quantum computing technology could pose a significant threat to bitcoin's security, researchers and analysts warn.

研究人員和分析師警告說，量子運算技術最近的突破可能對比特幣的安全構成重大威脅。

The nascent technology, which drew attention this month after Google claimed a breakthrough with its new Willow quantum-computing chip, could one day enable hackers to break the encryption that keeps bitcoin secure. Such a hack could torpedo bitcoin’s price, by allowing thieves to swipe coins out of supposedly secure digital wallets.

這項新興技術本月在谷歌聲稱其新型 Willow 量子計算晶片取得突破後引起了人們的關注，有一天可能使駭客能夠破解保證比特幣安全的加密技術。這種駭客攻擊可能會導致竊賊從所謂安全的數位錢包中盜取比特幣，從而破壞比特幣的價格。

Researchers say a quantum device powerful enough to crack bitcoin is likely a decade or more away. Still, advances in the technology pose a long-term risk, unless bitcoin’s fractious community of developers beef up its technology in a time-consuming upgrade.

研究人員表示，強大到足以破解比特幣的量子設備可能還需要十年或更長時間。儘管如此，技術的進步仍會帶來長期風險，除非比特幣的開發者社群透過耗時的升級來加強其技術。

A quantum-powered attack on bitcoin could have harmful spillover effects on traditional financial markets, analysts warn.

分析師警告稱，針對比特幣的量子攻擊可能會對傳統金融市場產生有害的溢出效應。

“What you’ve got here is a time bomb waiting to explode, if and when someone gets that ability to develop quantum-computer hacking and decides to use that to target cryptocurrencies,” said Arthur Herman, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, a think tank based in Washington, D.C.

哈德遜研究所高級研究員阿瑟·赫爾曼 (Arthur Herman) 表示：「如果有人具備開發量子電腦駭客技術並決定利用其來攻擊加密貨幣，那麼這就是一顆等待爆炸的定時炸彈。」總部位於華盛頓特區的智囊團

A 2022 Hudson Institute study estimated that a quantum hack of bitcoin would cause more than $3 trillion in losses across crypto and other markets and trigger a deep recession. Herman said the likely costs of a quantum hack have swelled since the study came out, as bitcoin has climbed to near $100,000 and grown into an increasingly mainstream investment asset.

哈德遜研究所 2022 年的一項研究估計，比特幣的量子駭客攻擊將對加密貨幣和其他市場造成超過 3 兆美元的損失，並引發深度衰退。赫爾曼表示，自該研究發表以來，量子駭客的可能成本已經上升，因為比特幣已攀升至近 10 萬美元並成長為日益主流的投資資產。

President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to create a strategic reserve for the government’s bitcoin holdings, a sort of digital Fort Knox. Quantum computing could allow thieves to raid that Fort Knox.

當選總統唐納德·川普承諾為政府持有的比特幣建立戰略儲備，類似於數位諾克斯堡。量子計算可以讓竊賊攻擊諾克斯堡。

Unlike standard computers, in which all data is fundamentally represented in either zeros or ones, quantum computers use the quirky properties of subatomic particles to represent data in “qubits,” which can exist in a continuum of states that are mixtures of zeros and ones.

標準計算機中所有數據基本上都用0 或1 表示，而量子計算機則不同，它使用亞原子粒子的奇特特性來表示“量子位”中的數據，“量子位”可以存在於由0 和1 混合而成的連續狀態中。

That allows quantum computers to race through tasks that would take standard computers far longer than a human lifetime to solve. Such tasks could include discovering new medicines, forecasting weather—or cracking the encryption used to protect sensitive data.

這使得量子電腦能夠完成一些標準電腦需要比人類壽命長得多的任務才能完成的任務。此類任務可能包括發現新藥、預測天氣或破解用於保護敏感資料的加密。

For instance, one common encryption method involves very large numbers called public keys, which are multiples of two big prime numbers. The two primes can be combined to generate what is known as the private key. Data can be encoded with the public key, and decoded with the private key. As the names suggest, users keep their private keys secret, but public keys might be shared.

例如，一種常見的加密方法涉及稱為公鑰的非常大的數字，它們是兩個大素數的倍數。這兩個素數可以組合起來產生所謂的私鑰。資料可以使用公鑰進行編碼，並使用私鑰進行解碼。顧名思義，用戶將私鑰保密，但公鑰可能會被分享。

The strength of this method is that it takes a vast amount of time for a standard computer to derive the private key from the public key, because of the difficulty of factoring—figuring out the primes that can be multiplied to yield the public key.

這種方法的優點在於，標準電腦需要花費大量時間從公鑰匯出私鑰，因為分解（找出可以相乘以產生公鑰的素數）的困難。

Quantum computing makes factoring far easier. An algorithm devised by a U.S. mathematician in 1994 makes it possible to factor huge numbers in minutes—provided that you have a sufficiently powerful quantum computer.

量子計算使因式分解變得更加容易。一位美國數學家在 1994 年設計的演算法可以在幾分鐘內分解巨大的數字——前提是你有一台足夠強大的量子電腦。

Such a breakthrough would threaten not just bitcoin, but traditional finance, because many online banking systems use variants of public-key cryptography. But bitcoin could be a particularly tempting target for quantum thieves, security experts warn.

這樣的突破不僅會威脅比特幣，還會威脅傳統金融，因為許多網路銀行系統都使用公鑰加密的變體。但安全專家警告稱，對於量子竊賊來說，比特幣可能是一個特別誘人的目標。

“Bitcoin is going to get targeted like crazy,” said Skip Sanzeri, co-founder of QuSecure, a startup specializing in quantum-safe cybersecurity. “Banks have some regulation, some defense mechanisms and the ability to cover their clients, whereas bitcoin is the Wild West. Your wallet’s not going to reimburse you if your bitcoin gets stolen.”

「比特幣將瘋狂地成為攻擊目標，」專注於量子安全網路安全的新創公司 QuSecure 的聯合創始人 Skip Sanzeri 表示。 「銀行有一些監管、一些防禦機制以及保護客戶的能力，而比特幣則是狂野的西部。如果你的比特幣被盜，你的錢包不會補償你。

While hackers have stolen bitcoin before, their attacks generally involved gaining unauthorized access to crypto exchanges. A quantum attack would be more insidious, because it would cast doubt on the security of the entire bitcoin network, not just on a few crypto exchanges with poor security.

雖然駭客以前曾經竊取過比特幣，但他們的攻擊通常涉及未經授權存取加密貨幣交易所。量子攻擊會更加陰險，因為它會讓人們對整個比特幣網路的安全性產生懷疑，而不僅僅是少數安全性較差的加密貨幣交易所。

Some troves of bitcoin are particularly susceptible to quantum thievery. In bitcoin’s early days, it was held in addresses with exposed public keys, including the roughly one million coins believed to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto, bitcoin’s mysterious creator. Some 1.72 million bitcoins—valued at more than $160 billion at current prices—are held in such addresses, which were later phased out, according to Galaxy Digital.

有些比特幣寶藏特別容易受到量子竊盜。在比特幣的早期，它保存在公開金鑰的地址中，其中包括據信屬於比特幣神秘創造者中本聰的大約一百萬枚比特幣。據 Galaxy Digital 稱，這些地址中保存著約 172 萬枚比特幣（以當前價格計算，價值超過 1,600 億美元），但這些地址後來被淘汰。

Ultimately, all bitcoins are at risk once quantum computers become powerful enough. That is because hackers could steal coins being moved from one address to another during the 10-minute window that it takes for the bitcoin network to confirm such transfers.

最終，一旦量子電腦變得足夠強大，所有比特幣都將面臨風險。這是因為，在比特幣網路確認此類轉移所需的 10 分鐘時間內，駭客可能會竊取從一個地址轉移到另一個地址的代幣。

Some crypto veterans say there is still plenty of time for bitcoin to fix its vulnerabilities.

一些加密貨幣資深人士表示，比特幣仍有足夠的時間來修復其漏洞。

“There is definitely a quantum apocalypse on the horizon at some point in the future, but that point is a sufficiently long time away that there is no need for panic,” said Emin Gün Sirer, founder of the Avalanche cryptocurrency.

Avalanche 加密貨幣創始人 Emin Gün Sirer 表示：“未來某個時刻肯定會出現量子災難，但距離那個時刻已經足夠長了，所以沒有必要恐慌。”

Bitcoin could be secured by adopting newer forms of encryption that can’t easily be cracked by quantum computers—but such an overhaul could take years, crypto executives say. Because of bitcoin’s decentralized nature, changing its technology requires broad consensus among people

加密產業高層表示，可以透過採用量子電腦不易破解的新型加密方式來保護比特幣的安全，但這種徹底改革可能需要數年時間。由於比特幣的去中心化性質，改變其技術需要人們的廣泛共識