比特币将如何促进激进创新

随着比特币现在向机构投资者开放，这将提高资本的机会成本。大型机构投资者总是寻求将资金投入最高的风险调整回报。

Bitcoin's Impact on Innovation: A Radical Shift

比特币对创新的影响：彻底的转变

There is an ongoing debate within the Bitcoin community regarding the nature of its innovation—whether it is radical or incremental. Some argue that Bitcoin is merely the aggregation of several existing technologies, such as public key cryptography, computer networking, economic incentives, and social computing, each of which has been around for decades. Hence, they contend that while each individual component may have been a radical innovation in its own right, their combination in Bitcoin does not constitute a radical innovation.

比特币社区内部一直在争论其创新的本质——激进的还是渐进的。一些人认为，比特币仅仅是几种现有技术的集合，例如公钥密码学、计算机网络、经济激励和社交计算，每一项技术都已经存在了几十年。因此，他们认为，虽然每个单独的组件本身可能是一项激进的创新，但它们在比特币中的组合并不构成一项激进的创新。

Others, however, maintain that this aggregation of knowledge is highly non-trivial and hence qualifies as a radical innovation. For instance, representing transfers of value in a chain of blocks across a distributed network of computers is the very definition of radical innovation. I personally lean more towards the latter view, as I believe that systems integration as a tactic for innovation is extremely valuable and qualifies as innovation itself. The iPhone, Tesla Model 3, James Webb telescope, and autonomous drills used in shale fracking are all prime examples of supreme systems integration. Perhaps the best counterexamples of radical innovations that did not involve “just” systems integration would be the atomic bomb, airplane, and transistor, although I think a case could still be made.

然而，其他人则认为，这种知识的聚合非常重要，因此可以称为激进的创新。例如，在分布式计算机网络上的区块链中表示价值转移就是激进创新的定义。我个人更倾向于后一种观点，因为我相信系统集成作为一种创新策略是非常有价值的，并且可以算是创新本身。 iPhone、特斯拉 Model 3、詹姆斯·韦伯望远镜和页岩压裂中使用的自动钻机都是最高系统集成的典型例子。也许不涉及“仅仅”系统集成的激进创新的最佳反例是原子弹、飞机和晶体管，尽管我认为仍然可以举出例子。

However, I do not believe that Bitcoin's impact on innovation will come from replicating blockchain technology or inspiring new forms of distributed computing or cryptography. Instead, Bitcoin's primary impact will flow through its monetary innovation, which will raise the opportunity cost of innovation capital.

然而，我不认为比特币对创新的影响将来自复制区块链技术或激发新形式的分布式计算或密码学。相反，比特币的主要影响将通过其货币创新产生，这将提高创新资本的机会成本。

Financing Innovation

创新融资

Today, there are broadly three loci of innovation: startups, large corporations, and academia/non-profit labs. All of these places do not operate independently but require capital. That capital buys equipment, hires talent, and can ease and circumvent bureaucracy.

如今，创新大致分为三个领域：初创企业、大公司和学术界/非营利实验室。所有这些地方都不是独立运作的，而是需要资金的。这些资本可以购买设备、雇用人才，并可以缓解和规避官僚主义。

Venture capital (VC), the chief instrument for financing startups, gathers money from institutional investors (like sovereign wealth funds, university endowments, and pension funds) and reallocates it to innovative startups. Hence, VCs are financial intermediaries; the head of the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority does not know the differences between the latest spate of San Francisco AI companies. We can debate whether the capitalists are fairly or properly compensated, but they have played a role in the world economy in the last 50 years, and I do not see that vanishing anytime soon.

风险投资 (VC) 是初创企业融资的主要工具，它从机构投资者（如主权财富基金、大学捐赠基金和养老基金）收集资金，并将其重新分配给创新型初创企业。因此，风险投资公司是金融中介机构；阿布扎比投资局局长并不了解旧金山最新一批人工智能公司之间的差异。我们可以争论资本家是否得到了公平或适当的补偿，但他们在过去 50 年里在世界经济中发挥了作用，而且我认为这种作用不会很快消失。

The model of venture capital has historically consisted of a handful of winners that pay for a bevy of losers. It's impossible to know ex-ante who will be the next Facebook, and so VCs put their chips on the table with many different companies. The best VCs probabilistically have more wins than other VCs, where a win is an exit of some kind, either an IPO or acquisition.

从历史上看，风险投资的模式是由少数赢家为一群输家买单。事前不可能知道谁将成为下一个 Facebook，因此风险投资家将筹码放在了许多不同的公司身上。最好的风险投资公司可能比其他风险投资公司获得更多的胜利，而其他风险投资公司的胜利是某种形式的退出，无论是首次公开募股还是收购。

While it's true that a successful win can involve a return of 20, 50, and even 100x the initial investment, that is not the average return in the portfolio. The portfolio's return must include the losers, many of which return nothing, so that the average return across the portfolio is smaller. How do we know that the VC returns are not consistently north of, say, 50%? If it were, then pension funds like the Texas Teacher's Retirement System would invest only in venture capital, but it doesn't. It invests in a wide selection of assets, and so VCs compete with other assets, like equities, bonds, and real estate.

虽然成功的胜利确实可以带来初始投资 20 倍、50 倍甚至 100 倍的回报，但这并不是投资组合的平均回报。投资组合的回报必须包括亏损者，其中许多亏损者没有任何回报，因此整个投资组合的平均回报较小。我们怎么知道风险投资回报率并不总是高于 50%？如果是这样，那么像德克萨斯州教师退休系统这样的养老基金将只投资于风险投资，但事实并非如此。它投资于多种资产，因此风险投资与股票、债券和房地产等其他资产竞争。

Enter the new asset class: Bitcoin

进入新的资产类别：比特币

With Bitcoin now available to institutional investors, this will raise the opportunity cost of capital. Large institutional investors will always seek to place their money at the highest risk-adjusted return. With Bitcoin on the table, institutional investors will no longer be satisfied with the traditional returns. Ultimately, Bitcoin will raise the hurdle rate for the VC industry. Rather than expecting a 20 or 30% return, VCs will need to at least beat Bitcoin's return.

随着比特币现在可供机构投资者使用，这将提高资本的机会成本。大型机构投资者总是寻求将资金投入最高的风险调整回报。随着比特币的出现，机构投资者将不再满足于传统的回报。最终，比特币将提高风险投资行业的门槛。风投们需要至少超过比特币的回报率，而不是期望 20% 或 30% 的回报率。

This is possible, but it will transform the venture industry. For one, it will starve funding for incremental innovation, the kind that does not lead to outsize returns. And so, the glory days of B2B SaaS companies will come to an end, as those returns simply won't make the cut. Industry-changing investments like generative AI likely would clear the hurdle, and VCs will, therefore, keep an eye out for other such low probability, high return investments.

这是可能的，但它将改变风险投资行业。其一，渐进式创新的资金将会匮乏，而这种创新不会带来巨额回报。因此，B2B SaaS 公司的辉煌时代将结束，因为这些回报根本无法实现。像生成人工智能这样改变行业的投资可能会清除障碍，因此风险投资将密切关注其他此类低概率、高回报的投资。

The net effect will be that VCs will only fund world-changing innovation. This was how the venture industry started in the 1970s, funding internet infrastructure and personal computers. However, the industry took a detour into SaaS companies, social media, and mobile apps; many which returned lackluster returns. Those industries will not go away, but I don't believe they will be funded through future venture capital. Rather, they will continue through private equity or even corporate entrepreneurship.

最终的结果是风险投资只会资助改变世界的创新。这就是风险投资行业在 20 世纪 70 年代兴起的方式，为互联网基础设施和个人电脑提供资金。然而，该行业绕道进入了 SaaS 公司、社交媒体和移动应用程序；许多回报平淡。这些行业不会消失，但我不相信它们会通过未来的风险投资获得资金。相反，他们将通过私募股权甚至企业创业来继续发展。

Perhaps the biggest long-term benefit of all this will be the shift in human capital. Young people will

也许这一切的最大长期好处将是人力资本的转变。年轻人会