比特币价格下跌可能与前总统唐纳德·特朗普赢得即将到来的总统选举的机会下降有关

据 CoinDesk 称，周五早些时候，比特币价格约为 70,400 美元，低于周二的 72,723.76 美元，当时比特币有望突破 73,084 美元的历史高点。

Bitcoin dropped more than three percent in recent days from a near record high, moving in parallel with a decrease in former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the upcoming presidential election, according to multiple metrics.

根据多项指标，比特币最近几天从接近历史高位下跌了超过 3%，与前总统唐纳德·特朗普赢得即将到来的总统选举的机会下降同时发生。

Bitcoin was priced around $70,400 early Friday, according to CoinDesk, as opposed to $72,723.76 on Tuesday when it appeared to be heading towards surpassing its record high of $73,084.

根据 CoinDesk 的数据，周五早些时候，比特币的价格约为 70,400 美元，而周二的价格为 72,723.76 美元，当时比特币似乎正在突破 73,084 美元的历史新高。

At the same time, Trump's odds of winning the race to the White House have dropped, according to PredictIt, an online prediction market.

与此同时，根据在线预测市场 PredictIt 的数据，特朗普入主白宫的几率已经下降。

Trump has promoted policies favorable to digital assets, envisioning the U.S. as a leader in the crypto industry, which has drawn support from certain parts of the market. His Democratic opponent Kamala Harris meanwhile, while supportive of the industry, has taken a less laissez-faire approach. The vice president said in September that she would encourage digital assets "while protecting our consumers and investors."

特朗普推行了有利于数字资产的政策，将美国视为加密货币行业的领导者，这得到了市场某些部分的支持。与此同时，他的民主党对手卡玛拉·哈里斯在支持该行业的同时，也采取了不那么自由放任的态度。这位副总统在 9 月份表示，她将鼓励数字资产“同时保护我们的消费者和投资者”。

"While Bitcoin would likely fall if Harris wins the election, its response to a Trump presidency is harder to gauge," Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said in a note shared with Bloomberg.

亚德尼研究公司 (Yardeni Research) 的埃德·亚德尼 (Ed Yardeni) 在与彭博社分享的一份报告中表示：“虽然如果哈里斯赢得选举，比特币可能会下跌，但它对特朗普总统任期的反应更难衡量。”

Political and digital currency experts who spoke with Newsweek were also uncertain as to whether there was a direct link between Trump's election performance and the price of cryptocurrencies.

接受《新闻周刊》采访的政治和数字货币专家也不确定特朗普的选举表现与加密货币价格之间是否存在直接联系。

"We have seen fluctuations in Bitcoin with various announcements by Trump and he has certainly embraced the industry with a lot of enthusiasm," said Catherine Mulligan, advanced research fellow at Imperial College London's Institute of Security Science and Technology.

伦敦帝国理工学院安全科学技术研究所高级研究员凯瑟琳·穆里根表示：“随着特朗普的各种声明，我们看到了比特币的波动，他无疑以极大的热情拥抱了这个行业。”

Mulligan added that the links between Trump's ratings and the price of Bitcoin should be seen as a "wakeup call" for not just those who buy and sell the asset, but those in governments and regulators.

Mulligan 补充说，特朗普的评级与比特币价格之间的联系不仅应该被视为对那些购买和出售该资产的人的“警钟”，而且对那些政府和监管机构的人来说也是一个“警钟”。

Thomas Gift, who heads the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London, U.K., argued that Bitcoin's performance is tied to too many factors to pin its recent drop on Trump's odds of winning.

英国伦敦大学学院美国政治中心主任托马斯·吉夫特认为，比特币的表现与太多因素有关，不能将其最近的下跌归咎于特朗普获胜的几率。

"We know that Bitcoin is one of the most volatile commodities there is, and it's not clearly correlated with political business cycles," Gift said.

“我们知道比特币是最不稳定的商品之一，它与政治商业周期没有明显的相关性，”吉夫特说。

"While bets on the upcoming U.S. election could have some impact on Bitcoin's price, so could many other factors, especially projections about global liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, and other international macro trends."

“虽然对即将到来的美国大选的押注可能会对比特币的价格产生一些影响，但许多其他因素也会对比特币价格产生一些影响，特别是对全球流动性、美联储政策和其他国际宏观趋势的预测。”

What Has Donald Trump Said About Cryptocurrency?

唐纳德·特朗普对加密货币说了些什么？

Donald Trump has shown a significant shift in his stance toward cryptocurrency over recent years, now embracing it as part of his campaign platform. At a recent appearance, he committed to making the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet," aligning himself closely with Bitcoin advocates and pledging to boost the digital asset sector. He proposed that if elected, he would include Bitcoin in a "strategic reserve," akin to the national gold reserves, to help reduce national debt and stabilize the economy.

近年来，唐纳德·特朗普对加密货币的立场发生了重大转变，现在将其作为其竞选纲领的一部分。在最近的一次露面中，他承诺将美国打造成“地球的加密货币之都”，与比特币倡导者紧密合作，并承诺推动数字资产行业的发展。他提议，如果当选，他将把比特币纳入“战略储备”，类似于国家黄金储备，以帮助减少国家债务并稳定经济。

Previously, Trump criticized Bitcoin as a "scam" in 2021, but he now opposes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which he claims pose a threat to U.S. financial stability. This pro-crypto stance includes opposition to strict regulatory measures, contrasting sharply with the approach of his opponent, Kamala Harris.

此前，特朗普在2021年批评比特币是“骗局”，但现在他反对央行数字货币（CBDC），他声称这对美国金融稳定构成威胁。这种支持加密货币的立场包括反对严格的监管措施，与他的对手卡马拉·哈里斯的做法形成鲜明对比。