比特幣價格下跌可能與前總統唐納德·川普贏得即將到來的總統選舉的機會下降有關

據 CoinDesk 稱，週五早些時候，比特幣價格約為 70,400 美元，低於週二的 72,723.76 美元，當時比特幣有望突破 73,084 美元的歷史高點。

Bitcoin dropped more than three percent in recent days from a near record high, moving in parallel with a decrease in former President Donald Trump's chances of winning the upcoming presidential election, according to multiple metrics.

根據多個指標，比特幣最近幾天從接近歷史高點下跌了超過 3%，與前總統唐納德·川普贏得即將到來的總統選舉的機會下降同時發生。

Bitcoin was priced around $70,400 early Friday, according to CoinDesk, as opposed to $72,723.76 on Tuesday when it appeared to be heading towards surpassing its record high of $73,084.

根據 CoinDesk 的數據，週五早些時候，比特幣的價格約為 70,400 美元，而週二的價格為 72,723.76 美元，當時比特幣似乎正在突破 73,084 美元的歷史新高。

At the same time, Trump's odds of winning the race to the White House have dropped, according to PredictIt, an online prediction market.

同時，根據線上預測市場 PredictIt 的數據，川普入主白宮的幾率已經下降。

Trump has promoted policies favorable to digital assets, envisioning the U.S. as a leader in the crypto industry, which has drawn support from certain parts of the market. His Democratic opponent Kamala Harris meanwhile, while supportive of the industry, has taken a less laissez-faire approach. The vice president said in September that she would encourage digital assets "while protecting our consumers and investors."

川普推行了有利於數位資產的政策，將美國視為加密貨幣行業的領導者，這得到了市場某些部分的支持。與此同時，他的民主黨對手卡瑪拉·哈里斯在支持該行業的同時，也採取了不那麼自由放任的態度。這位副總統在 9 月表示，她將鼓勵數位資產「同時保護我們的消費者和投資者」。

"While Bitcoin would likely fall if Harris wins the election, its response to a Trump presidency is harder to gauge," Ed Yardeni of Yardeni Research said in a note shared with Bloomberg.

亞德尼研究公司(Yardeni Research) 的埃德·亞德尼(Ed Yardeni) 在與彭博社分享的一份報告中表示：「雖然如果哈里斯贏得選舉，比特幣可能會下跌，但它對特朗普總統任期的反應更難衡量。

Political and digital currency experts who spoke with Newsweek were also uncertain as to whether there was a direct link between Trump's election performance and the price of cryptocurrencies.

接受《新聞周刊》採訪的政治和數位貨幣專家也不確定川普的選舉表現與加密貨幣價格之間是否有直接關聯。

"We have seen fluctuations in Bitcoin with various announcements by Trump and he has certainly embraced the industry with a lot of enthusiasm," said Catherine Mulligan, advanced research fellow at Imperial College London's Institute of Security Science and Technology.

倫敦帝國學院安全科學技術研究所高級研究員凱瑟琳·穆里根表示：“隨著川普的各種聲明，我們看到了比特幣的波動，他無疑以極大的熱情擁抱了這個行業。”

Mulligan added that the links between Trump's ratings and the price of Bitcoin should be seen as a "wakeup call" for not just those who buy and sell the asset, but those in governments and regulators.

Mulligan 補充說，川普的評級與比特幣價格之間的聯繫不僅應該被視為對購買和出售該資產的人的“警鐘”，而且對那些政府和監管機構的人來說也是一個“警鐘」。

Thomas Gift, who heads the Center on U.S. Politics at University College London, U.K., argued that Bitcoin's performance is tied to too many factors to pin its recent drop on Trump's odds of winning.

英國倫敦大學學院美國政治中心主任托馬斯·吉夫特認為，比特幣的表現與太多因素有關，不能將其最近的下跌歸咎於川普獲勝的可能性。

"We know that Bitcoin is one of the most volatile commodities there is, and it's not clearly correlated with political business cycles," Gift said.

「我們知道比特幣是最不穩定的商品之一，它與政治商業週期沒有明顯的相關性，」吉夫特說。

"While bets on the upcoming U.S. election could have some impact on Bitcoin's price, so could many other factors, especially projections about global liquidity, Federal Reserve policy, and other international macro trends."

「雖然對即將到來的美國大選的押注可能會對比特幣的價格產生一些影響，但許多其他因素也會對比特幣價格產生一些影響，特別是對全球流動性、聯準會政策和其他國際宏觀趨勢的預測。

What Has Donald Trump Said About Cryptocurrency?

唐納德·川普對加密貨幣說了些什麼？

Donald Trump has shown a significant shift in his stance toward cryptocurrency over recent years, now embracing it as part of his campaign platform. At a recent appearance, he committed to making the U.S. the "crypto capital of the planet," aligning himself closely with Bitcoin advocates and pledging to boost the digital asset sector. He proposed that if elected, he would include Bitcoin in a "strategic reserve," akin to the national gold reserves, to help reduce national debt and stabilize the economy.

近年來，唐納德·川普對加密貨幣的立場發生了重大轉變，現在將其作為其競選綱領的一部分。在最近的一次露面中，他承諾將美國打造成“地球的加密貨幣之都”，與比特幣倡導者緊密合作，並承諾推動數位資產產業的發展。他提議，如果當選，他將把比特幣納入“戰略儲備”，類似於國家黃金儲備，以幫助減少國家債務並穩定經濟。

Previously, Trump criticized Bitcoin as a "scam" in 2021, but he now opposes central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), which he claims pose a threat to U.S. financial stability. This pro-crypto stance includes opposition to strict regulatory measures, contrasting sharply with the approach of his opponent, Kamala Harris.

此前，川普在2021年批評比特幣是“騙局”，但現在他反對央行數位貨幣（CBDC），他聲稱這對美國金融穩定構成威脅。這種支持加密貨幣的立場包括反對嚴格的監管措施，與他的對手卡馬拉·哈里斯的做法形成鮮明對比。