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欧洲央行(ECB)的两位经济学家 Ulrich Bindseil 和 Jürgen Schaaf 发表了对比特币的批判性分析,警告称即使在比特币价格持续上涨的情况下,加密货币也会给社会带来重大风险。
Two economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) have issued a critical analysis of Bitcoin, warning that even in a scenario where Bitcoin prices continue to rise, the cryptocurrency poses significant risks to society. The economists, in a paper titled ‘The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin’, argue that Bitcoin’s wealth redistribution effects, which benefit early adopters, come at the direct expense of latecomers and non-holders, leading to social and economic inequality.
欧洲央行(ECB)的两位经济学家对比特币发表了批评性分析,警告称,即使在比特币价格持续上涨的情况下,加密货币也会给社会带来重大风险。经济学家在题为“比特币的分配后果”的论文中认为,比特币的财富再分配效应有利于早期采用者,但却直接损害了后来者和非持有者的利益,从而导致社会和经济不平等。
According to Bindseil and Schaaf, the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices enriches early adopers but impoverishes those who enter the market later or do not invest at all. They describe this as a “zero-sum game,” where the wealth and consumption increases of early Bitcoin investors are funded by the diminishing consumption and financial losses of non-holders.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 认为,比特币价格的快速上涨使早期采用者变得富有,但使后来进入市场或根本不投资的人陷入贫困。他们将其描述为“零和游戏”,早期比特币投资者的财富和消费增加是由非持有者消费和财务损失的减少提供资金的。
Early adopters vs late comers
早期采用者与后来者
The economists emphasize that this redistribution is a serious societal concern, as it leads to frustration and malaise among those left behind, potentially deepening societal divisions. They conclude that Bitcoin’s wealth effects are not linked to an increase in the economy’s production potential, and that the rising prices of the cryptocurrency have no benefit to the broader economy.
经济学家强调,这种再分配是一个严重的社会问题,因为它会导致那些留下来的人感到沮丧和不适,并可能加深社会分歧。他们的结论是,比特币的财富效应与经济生产潜力的增加无关,而且加密货币价格的上涨对更广泛的经济没有任何好处。
“In absolute terms, early adopters exactly increase their real wealth and consumption at the expense of the real wealth and consumption of those who do not hold Bitcoin or who invest in it only at a later stage.
“从绝对值来看,早期采用者确实增加了他们的真实财富和消费,但牺牲了那些不持有比特币或仅在后期投资比特币的人的真实财富和消费。
“At some stage, the Bitcoin holdings are equally spread amongst the two subsets of the population we assume in section 4 (or have largely converged to this state), such that subsequent valuation increases of Bitcoin will be neutral (and have no effects at all on relative consumption, and none on total consumption unless consumption crowds out investments and therefore undermines growth),” the economists wrote.
“在某个阶段,比特币持有量平均分布在我们在第 4 节中假设的两个人口子集中(或已基本收敛到这种状态),因此比特币的后续估值上涨将是中性的(并且根本没有影响)经济学家们写道:“我们只关注相对消费,而不关注总消费,除非消费排挤投资并因此破坏增长。”
Political implications and election influence
政治影响和选举影响
Bindseil and Schaaf also raise concerns about Bitcoin’s influence on politics, noting that the growing number of crypto investors could sway election outcomes. They point to the ongoing U.S. presidential elections, where some candidates are actively courting crypto voters to secure their support. The economists argue that pro-Bitcoin political campaigns may further exacerbate wealth redistribution, as early adopers have a vested interest in promoting policies that maintain or increase Bitcoin prices.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 还对比特币对政治的影响表示担忧,并指出,越来越多的加密货币投资者可能会影响选举结果。他们指出正在进行的美国总统选举,一些候选人正在积极争取加密货币选民以确保他们的支持。经济学家认为,支持比特币的政治运动可能会进一步加剧财富再分配,因为早期采用者在推动维持或提高比特币价格的政策方面拥有既得利益。
What you should know
你应该知道什么
Bindseil and Schaaf’s paper comes as a stark reminder that Bitcoin, often touted as a revolutionary financial innovation, may have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond individual investment returns. In this respect, those who got in at relatively low prices and/or sold at high prices have made high profits and those who bought and held bitcoins at low prices and did not sell them have high imputed profits.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 的论文严厉提醒人们,经常被誉为革命性金融创新的比特币可能会产生超出个人投资回报的深远影响。在这方面,那些以相对较低的价格买入和/或以高价出售的人获得了高额利润,而那些以低价购买和持有比特币而不出售的人则获得了高额的推算利润。
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