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歐洲央行(ECB)的兩位經濟學家 Ulrich Bindseil 和 Jürgen Schaaf 發表了對比特幣的批判性分析,警告即使在比特幣價格持續上漲的情況下,加密貨幣也會為社會帶來重大風險。
Two economists from the European Central Bank (ECB) have issued a critical analysis of Bitcoin, warning that even in a scenario where Bitcoin prices continue to rise, the cryptocurrency poses significant risks to society. The economists, in a paper titled ‘The Distributional Consequences of Bitcoin’, argue that Bitcoin’s wealth redistribution effects, which benefit early adopters, come at the direct expense of latecomers and non-holders, leading to social and economic inequality.
歐洲央行(ECB)的兩位經濟學家對比特幣發表了批評性分析,警告稱,即使在比特幣價格持續上漲的情況下,加密貨幣也會為社會帶來重大風險。經濟學家在題為「比特幣的分配後果」的論文中認為,比特幣的財富再分配效應有利於早期採用者,但卻直接損害了後來者和非持有者的利益,從而導致社會和經濟不平等。
According to Bindseil and Schaaf, the rapid rise in Bitcoin prices enriches early adopers but impoverishes those who enter the market later or do not invest at all. They describe this as a “zero-sum game,” where the wealth and consumption increases of early Bitcoin investors are funded by the diminishing consumption and financial losses of non-holders.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 認為,比特幣價格的快速上漲使早期採用者變得富有,但使後來進入市場或根本不投資的人陷入貧困。他們將其描述為“零和遊戲”,早期比特幣投資者的財富和消費增加是由非持有者消費和財務損失的減少提供資金的。
Early adopters vs late comers
早期採用者與後來者
The economists emphasize that this redistribution is a serious societal concern, as it leads to frustration and malaise among those left behind, potentially deepening societal divisions. They conclude that Bitcoin’s wealth effects are not linked to an increase in the economy’s production potential, and that the rising prices of the cryptocurrency have no benefit to the broader economy.
經濟學家強調,這種再分配是一個嚴重的社會問題,因為它會導致那些留下來的人感到沮喪和不適,並可能加深社會分歧。他們的結論是,比特幣的財富效應與經濟生產潛力的增加無關,而且加密貨幣價格的上漲對更廣泛的經濟沒有任何好處。
“In absolute terms, early adopters exactly increase their real wealth and consumption at the expense of the real wealth and consumption of those who do not hold Bitcoin or who invest in it only at a later stage.
「從絕對值來看,早期採用者確實增加了他們的真實財富和消費,但犧牲了那些不持有比特幣或僅在後期投資比特幣的人的真實財富和消費。
“At some stage, the Bitcoin holdings are equally spread amongst the two subsets of the population we assume in section 4 (or have largely converged to this state), such that subsequent valuation increases of Bitcoin will be neutral (and have no effects at all on relative consumption, and none on total consumption unless consumption crowds out investments and therefore undermines growth),” the economists wrote.
「在某個階段,比特幣持有量平均分佈在我們在第4 節中假設的兩個人口子集中(或已基本收斂到這種狀態),因此比特幣的後續估值上漲將是中性的(並且根本沒有影響)經濟學家寫道:“我們只關注相對消費,而不關注總消費,除非消費排擠投資並因此破壞增長。”
Political implications and election influence
政治影響與選舉影響
Bindseil and Schaaf also raise concerns about Bitcoin’s influence on politics, noting that the growing number of crypto investors could sway election outcomes. They point to the ongoing U.S. presidential elections, where some candidates are actively courting crypto voters to secure their support. The economists argue that pro-Bitcoin political campaigns may further exacerbate wealth redistribution, as early adopers have a vested interest in promoting policies that maintain or increase Bitcoin prices.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 也對比特幣對政治的影響表示擔憂,並指出,越來越多的加密貨幣投資者可能會影響選舉結果。他們指出正在進行的美國總統選舉,一些候選人正在積極爭取加密貨幣選民以確保他們的支持。經濟學家認為,支持比特幣的政治運動可能會進一步加劇財富再分配,因為早期採用者在推動維持或提高比特幣價格的政策方面擁有既得利益。
What you should know
你應該知道什麼
Bindseil and Schaaf’s paper comes as a stark reminder that Bitcoin, often touted as a revolutionary financial innovation, may have far-reaching consequences that extend beyond individual investment returns. In this respect, those who got in at relatively low prices and/or sold at high prices have made high profits and those who bought and held bitcoins at low prices and did not sell them have high imputed profits.
Bindseil 和 Schaaf 的論文嚴厲提醒人們,經常被譽為革命性金融創新的比特幣可能會產生超出個人投資回報的深遠影響。在這方面,那些以相對較低的價格買入和/或以高價出售的人獲得了高額利潤,而那些以低價購買和持有比特幣而不出售的人則獲得了高額的推算利潤。
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