比特币：从高峰到年末动荡

2024 年，在“特朗普暴涨”的推动下，比特币价格达到 108,000 美元的历史新高，成为头条新闻。但从那时起，这种兴奋已经消退：旗舰加密货币现在的价格在 92,500 美元到 99,000 美元之间。

As 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, seems to have put its flamboyance away for the festive season. With a price hovering around $93,000, investors are taking a pause. However, some are hoping for a spectacular awakening for the crypto market as the inauguration of Donald Trump approaches in January. A look back at a tumultuous week and the weak but crucial signals.

随着 2024 年接近尾声，旗舰加密货币比特币似乎在节日期间收起了华丽的色彩。由于价格徘徊在 93,000 美元左右，投资者正在暂停。然而，随着唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 一月份就职典礼的临近，一些人希望加密货币市场能够出现惊人的觉醒。回顾动荡的一周以及微弱但至关重要的信号。

Bitcoin: from peaks to year-end turbulence

比特币：从高峰到年末动荡

In 2024, the price of bitcoin made headlines by reaching a historic high of $108,000, powered by the “Trump Bump.” But since then, the euphoria has faded: the flagship cryptocurrency now navigates between $92,500 and $99,000, weighed down by sluggish activity related to the holidays and thus plummeting transactions.

2024 年，在“特朗普暴涨”的推动下，比特币价格达到 108,000 美元的历史新高，成为头条新闻。但从那时起，这种乐观情绪已经消退：旗舰加密货币目前在 92,500 美元至 99,000 美元之间徘徊，受到与假期相关的活动低迷的拖累，从而导致交易量大幅下降。

According to Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, “Bitcoin has remained stuck in a narrow range due to declining institutional volumes.”

Mudrex 首席执行官 Edul Patel 表示，“由于机构交易量下降，比特币仍停留在窄幅区间内。”

Although volatility is an old acquaintance for bitcoin, analysts note a unique momentum this year:

尽管波动性对比特币来说是老生常谈，但分析师指出，今年比特币出现了独特的势头：

“This year, however, we've seen an interesting dynamic, with bitcoin showing less volatility compared to previous years, despite the presence of macroeconomic events and anticipation of a potential Trump Bump 2.0.”

“然而，今年我们看到了一个有趣的动态，尽管存在宏观经济事件以及对潜在的特朗普冲击 2.0 的预期，但与前几年相比，比特币的波动性较小。”

Meanwhile, giants like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate BTC (1), having recently added 5,200 units to their treasury. This bold move raises questions about institutional intentions: strategic accumulation or risky bet against a potential rise of Trump?

与此同时，像 MicroStrategy 这样的巨头继续积累 BTC (1)，最近在其金库中增加了 5,200 个单位。这一大胆举动引发了关于制度意图的质疑：战略积累还是对特朗普潜在崛起的冒险押注？

Crypto market: between expectations and concerns

加密市场：期望与担忧之间

The crypto market has not been spared this week, with global capitalization slightly down to $3.27 trillion. Ethereum, the runner-up, followed the descent with a range between $3,275 and $3,535.

本周加密市场也未能幸免，全球市值小幅下跌至 3.27 万亿美元。排名第二的以太坊紧随其后，价格区间在 3,275 美元至 3,535 美元之间。

In the meantime, stablecoins and DeFi maintain relatively stable activity, representing 91.52% and 8.15% of traded volumes, respectively. However, the overall climate remains marked by cautious neutrality, illustrated by the fear and greed index frozen at 50.

与此同时，稳定币和 DeFi 保持相对稳定的活跃度，分别占交易量的 91.52% 和 8.15%。然而，整体气氛仍然以谨慎中立为标志，恐惧和贪婪指数冻结在 50 就说明了这一点。

Another worrying signal: hackers are becoming increasingly creative (2) in emptying investors’ wallets. Taylor Monahan has alerted to sophisticated scams where fake recruiters prompt their targets to install malware.

另一个令人担忧的信号是：黑客在掏空投资者钱包方面变得越来越有创意 (2)。泰勒·莫纳汉 (Taylor Monahan) 已就复杂的骗局发出警报，在这些骗局中，虚假招聘人员会提示其目标安装恶意软件。

This climate of distrust weighs on the market, as some hope for a resurgence of interest as the inauguration of Donald Trump (3) approaches, seen as a potential catalyst for bitcoin.

这种不信任的气氛给市场带来了压力，因为一些人希望随着唐纳德·特朗普(3)就职典礼的临近，人们的兴趣会重新燃起，这被视为比特币的潜在催化剂。

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, adds a fourth point:

Bitget Research 首席分析师 Ryan Lee 补充了第四点：

« One-off events should also play a role, particularly the year-end holidays, which are expected to dull market liquidity in the short term. However, conditions are likely to improve in January with the anticipated start of FTX repayments on January 3, releasing $16 billion to compensate users. This event is expected to bolster overall market liquidity. »

« 一次性事件也应该发挥作用，特别是年终假期，预计会在短期内削弱市场流动性。然而，随着 FTX 预计于 1 月 3 日开始偿还，1 月份情况可能会有所改善，释放 160 亿美元来补偿用户。预计这一事件将增强整体市场流动性。 »

Finally, Arthur Hayes does not view Trump’s inauguration in a favorable light: he even anticipates a massive collapse of cryptos. While his pessimism contrasts with the prevailing wait-and-see attitude, he reminds us that surprises, good or bad, are never lacking in the universe of cryptos.

最后，阿瑟·海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 并不乐观地看待特朗普的就职典礼：他甚至预计加密货币将大规模崩溃。虽然他的悲观主义与普遍的观望态度形成鲜明对比，但他提醒我们，加密货币领域永远不缺乏惊喜，无论好坏。

Maximize your Cointribune experience with our "Read to Earn" program! For every article you read, earn points and access exclusive rewards. Sign up now and start earning benefits.

通过我们的“阅读赚钱”计划最大化您的 Cointribune 体验！对于您阅读的每一篇文章，均可赚取积分并获得独家奖励。立即注册并开始赚取福利。

La révolution blockchain et crypto est en marche ! Et le jour où les impacts se feront ressentir sur l’économie la plus vulnérable de ce Monde, contre toute espérance, je dirai que j’y étais pour quelque chose

区块链和加密革命正在进行中！当世界上最脆弱的经济体感受到影响的那一天，尽管万般希望，我会说我与它有关