比特幣：從高峰到年末動盪

2024 年，在「川普暴漲」的推動下，比特幣價格達到 108,000 美元的歷史新高，成為頭條新聞。但從那時起，這種興奮已經消退：旗艦加密貨幣現在的價格在 92,500 美元到 99,000 美元之間。

As 2024 draws to a close, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, seems to have put its flamboyance away for the festive season. With a price hovering around $93,000, investors are taking a pause. However, some are hoping for a spectacular awakening for the crypto market as the inauguration of Donald Trump approaches in January. A look back at a tumultuous week and the weak but crucial signals.

隨著 2024 年接近尾聲，旗艦加密貨幣比特幣似乎在節日期間收起了華麗的色彩。由於價格徘徊在 93,000 美元左右，投資者正在暫停。然而，隨著唐納德·川普 (Donald Trump) 一月份就職典禮的臨近，有些人希望加密貨幣市場能夠出現驚人的覺醒。回顧動蕩的一周以及微弱但至關重要的信號。

Bitcoin: from peaks to year-end turbulence

比特幣：從高峰到年末動盪

In 2024, the price of bitcoin made headlines by reaching a historic high of $108,000, powered by the “Trump Bump.” But since then, the euphoria has faded: the flagship cryptocurrency now navigates between $92,500 and $99,000, weighed down by sluggish activity related to the holidays and thus plummeting transactions.

2024 年，在「川普暴漲」的推動下，比特幣價格達到 108,000 美元的歷史新高，成為頭條新聞。但從那時起，這種樂觀情緒已經消退：旗艦加密貨幣目前在 92,500 美元至 99,000 美元之間徘徊，受到與假期相關的活動低迷的拖累，從而導致交易量大幅下降。

According to Edul Patel, CEO of Mudrex, “Bitcoin has remained stuck in a narrow range due to declining institutional volumes.”

Mudrex 執行長 Edul Patel 表示，“由於機構交易量下降，比特幣仍停留在窄幅區間內。”

Although volatility is an old acquaintance for bitcoin, analysts note a unique momentum this year:

儘管波動性對比特幣來說是老生常談，但分析師指出，今年比特幣出現了獨特的勢頭：

“This year, however, we've seen an interesting dynamic, with bitcoin showing less volatility compared to previous years, despite the presence of macroeconomic events and anticipation of a potential Trump Bump 2.0.”

「然而，今年我們看到了一個有趣的動態，儘管存在宏觀經濟事件以及對潛在的川普衝擊 2.0 的預期，但與前幾年相比，比特幣的波動性較小。”

Meanwhile, giants like MicroStrategy continue to accumulate BTC (1), having recently added 5,200 units to their treasury. This bold move raises questions about institutional intentions: strategic accumulation or risky bet against a potential rise of Trump?

與此同時，像 MicroStrategy 這樣的巨頭繼續累積 BTC (1)，最近在其金庫中增加了 5,200 個單位。這一大膽舉動引發了關於制度意圖的質疑：戰略累積還是對川普潛在崛起的冒險押注？

Crypto market: between expectations and concerns

加密市場：期望與擔憂之間

The crypto market has not been spared this week, with global capitalization slightly down to $3.27 trillion. Ethereum, the runner-up, followed the descent with a range between $3,275 and $3,535.

本週加密市場也未能倖免，全球市值小幅下跌至 3.27 兆美元。排名第二的以太幣緊隨其後，價格區間在 3,275 美元至 3,535 美元之間。

In the meantime, stablecoins and DeFi maintain relatively stable activity, representing 91.52% and 8.15% of traded volumes, respectively. However, the overall climate remains marked by cautious neutrality, illustrated by the fear and greed index frozen at 50.

同時，穩定幣和 DeFi 保持相對穩定的活躍度，分別佔交易量的 91.52% 和 8.15%。然而，整體氣氛仍然以謹慎中立為標誌，恐懼和貪婪指數凍結在 50 就說明了這一點。

Another worrying signal: hackers are becoming increasingly creative (2) in emptying investors’ wallets. Taylor Monahan has alerted to sophisticated scams where fake recruiters prompt their targets to install malware.

另一個令人擔憂的訊號是：駭客在掏空投資者錢包方面變得越來越有創意 (2)。泰勒·莫納漢 (Taylor Monahan) 已就複雜的騙局發出警報，在這些騙局中，虛假招聘人員會提示其目標安裝惡意軟體。

This climate of distrust weighs on the market, as some hope for a resurgence of interest as the inauguration of Donald Trump (3) approaches, seen as a potential catalyst for bitcoin.

這種不信任的氣氛給市場帶來了壓力，因為有些人希望隨著唐納德·川普(3)就職典禮的臨近，人們的興趣會重新燃起，這被視為比特幣的潛在催化劑。

Ryan Lee, Chief Analyst at Bitget Research, adds a fourth point:

Bitget Research 首席分析師 Ryan Lee 補充了第四點：

« One-off events should also play a role, particularly the year-end holidays, which are expected to dull market liquidity in the short term. However, conditions are likely to improve in January with the anticipated start of FTX repayments on January 3, releasing $16 billion to compensate users. This event is expected to bolster overall market liquidity. »

« 一次性事件也應該發揮作用，特別是年終假期，預計會在短期內削弱市場流動性。然而，隨著 FTX 預計於 1 月 3 日開始償還，1 月情況可能會有所改善，釋放 160 億美元來補償用戶。預計這一事件將增強整體市場流動性。 »

Finally, Arthur Hayes does not view Trump’s inauguration in a favorable light: he even anticipates a massive collapse of cryptos. While his pessimism contrasts with the prevailing wait-and-see attitude, he reminds us that surprises, good or bad, are never lacking in the universe of cryptos.

最後，阿瑟海斯 (Arthur Hayes) 並不樂觀地看待川普的就職典禮：他甚至預計加密貨幣將大規模崩潰。雖然他的悲觀主義與普遍的觀望態度形成鮮明對比，但他提醒我們，加密貨幣領域永遠不缺乏驚喜，無論好壞。

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