比特币的市场结构正在发展，其曾经可预测的四年周期可能不再具有相同的相关性

比特币的市场结构正在发展，其曾经可预测的四年周期可能不再具有相同的相关性。

Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving, and its once-predictable four-year cycles may no longer hold the same relevance. In a recent conversation with Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Mitchell Askew, Head Analyst at Blockware Solutions, shared his perspective on how Bitcoin ETFs, mining advancements, and institutional adoption are shaping the asset’s price behavior.

比特币的市场结构正在发展，其曾经可预测的四年周期可能不再具有相同的相关性。在与马特·克罗斯比（Matt Crosby）的最近对话中，Blockware Solutions的Bitcoin Magazine Pro的首席分析师Mitchell Askew分析了他对比特币ETF，采矿和采用机构采用的看法，正在塑造资产的价格行为。

According to Askew, Bitcoin’s historical pattern of parabolic price increases followed by steep drawdowns is changing as institutional investors enter the market. At the same time, the mining industry is becoming more efficient and stable, creating new dynamics that affect Bitcoin’s supply and price trends.

根据Askew的说法，随着机构投资者进入市场，比特币的抛物线价格上涨的历史模式随之而来。同时，采矿业变得越来越有效和稳定，创造了影响比特币供应和价格趋势的新动态。

Askew suggests that Bitcoin may no longer experience the extreme cycles of past bull and bear markets. Historically, halving events reduced miner rewards, triggered supply shocks, and fueled rapid price increases, often followed by corrections of 70% or more. However, the increasing presence of institutional investors is leading to a more structured, macro-driven market.

Askew建议比特币可能不再经历过去的牛市和熊市的极端周期。从历史上看，将事件减少减少矿工的奖励，触发供应冲击并加剧价格上涨，然后校正70％或以上。但是，机构投资者的存在日益增加，导致了一个更具结构化的宏观驱动市场。

He explains that Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are bringing consistent demand into Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of extreme boom-and-bust price movements. Unlike retail traders, who tend to buy in euphoria and panic-sell during downturns, institutions are more likely to sell into strength and accumulate Bitcoin on dips.

他解释说，现货比特币ETF和公司财政部分配给比特币带来了一致的需求，从而减少了极端繁荣和狂暴的价格变动的可能性。与零售商交易员倾向于在低迷期间在Euphoria和Panic-Sell中购买，机构更有可能将其销售成强度并在下降中累积比特币。

Askew also notes that since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, price movements have become more measured, with longer consolidation periods before continued growth. This suggests Bitcoin is beginning to behave more like a traditional financial asset, rather than a speculative high-volatility market.

Askew还指出，自比特币ETF于2024年1月推出以来，价格变动已经越来越多，在持续增长之前的合并期更长。这表明比特币的行为开始更像是传统的金融资产，而不是投机性的高挥发性市场。

As a mining analyst at Blockware Solutions, Askew provides insight into how Bitcoin mining dynamics influence price trends. He notes that while many assume a rising hash rate is always bullish, the reality is more complex.

作为Blockware Solutions的采矿分析师，Askew提供了对比特币采矿动态如何影响价格趋势的见解。他指出，尽管许多人认为哈希速度的上升总是看好的，但现实却更为复杂。

In the short term, increasing hash rate can be bearish, as it leads to higher competition among miners and more Bitcoin being sold to cover electricity costs. However, over the long term, a rising hash rate reflects greater investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and network security.

在短期内，增加的哈希速率可能是看跌，因为这会导致矿工之间的竞争更高，并且出售更多的比特币以支付电力成本。但是，从长远来看，哈希速率上升反映了对比特币基础设施和网络安全的投资。

Another key observation from Askew is that Bitcoin’s hash rate growth lags behind price growth by 3-12 months. When Bitcoin’s price rises sharply, mining profitability increases, prompting more capital to flow into mining infrastructure. However, deploying new mining rigs and setting up facilities takes time, leading to a delayed impact on hash rate expansion.

Askew的另一个主要观察结果是，比特币的哈希率增长落后于价格增长3-12个月。当比特币的价格急剧上升时，采矿盈利能力会提高，促使更多的资本流入采矿基础设施。但是，部署新的采矿钻机并建立设施需要时间，从而延迟了对哈希税率的扩大影响。

Askew also highlights that mining hardware efficiency is reaching a plateau, which has significant implications for miners and Bitcoin’s supply structure.

Askew还强调，采矿硬件效率达到了高原，这对矿工和比特币的供应结构具有重大影响。

If you're thinking about Bitcoin mining, you MUST watch this clip.There's a trend developing in mining hardware that will bode extremely well for miners:– Longer machine lifespans– Slowing hashrate growth– Increased lag between price growth and hashrate growthBitcoin… pic.twitter.com/H0ZjsCm7Rc

如果您正在考虑比特币开采，则必须观看此剪辑。采矿硬件的发展趋势会非常适合矿工： - 较长的机器寿命 - 放大哈希底层增长 - 价格增长和哈希酸盐生长中的滞后和增加的滞后...

In Bitcoin’s early years, new mining machines offered dramatic efficiency improvements, forcing miners to upgrade hardware every 1-2 years to remain competitive. Today, however, new models are only about 10% more efficient than the previous generation. As a result, mining rigs can now remain profitable for 4-8 years, reducing the pressure on miners to continuously reinvest in new equipment.

在比特币的早期，新的采矿机提供了巨大的效率提高，迫使矿工每1 - 2年升级硬件以保持竞争力。但是，如今，新型号的效率仅比上一代高约10％。结果，采矿钻机现在可以保持4 - 8年的盈利，从而减少了矿工不断再投资新设备的压力。

Electricity costs remain the biggest factor in mining profitability, and Askew explains that miners are increasingly seeking low-cost power sources to maintain long-term sustainability. Many companies, including Blockware Solutions, operate in rural U.S. locations with stable energy prices, ensuring better profitability even during market downturns.

电力成本仍然是采矿盈利能力的最大因素，Askew解释说，矿工越来越多地寻求低成本的电源来维持长期可持续性。许多公司，包括阻止软件解决方案，在美国农村地区的能源价格稳定的地点运营，从而确保甚至在市场衰退期间也可以更好地盈利能力。

Another important discussion point raised by Askew is the potential for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Some policymakers have proposed that the U.S. government accumulate Bitcoin in the same way it holds gold reserves, recognizing its potential as a global store of value.

Askew提出的另一个重要的讨论点是美国战略比特币储备（SBR）的潜力。一些政策制定者提出，美国政府以其持有黄金储量的方式积累了比特币，并承认其作为全球价值存储的潜力。

Askew explains that if such a reserve were implemented, it could create a massive supply shock, pushing Bitcoin’s price significantly higher. However, he cautions that government action is slow and would likely involve gradual accumulation rather than sudden large-scale purchases.

Askew解释说，如果实施了这样的储备金，它可能会造成巨大的供应冲击，从而将比特币的价格明显更高。但是，他警告政府行动缓慢，可能涉及逐渐积累，而不是突然的大规模购买。

Even if implemented over several years, such a program could further reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory by removing available supply from the market.

即使实施了几年，这种计划也可以通过消除市场可用的供应来进一步加强比特币的长期看涨轨迹。

Based on current trends, Askew remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, though he believes the market’s behavior is shifting toward more gradual, sustained growth rather than extreme speculative cycles.

根据当前的趋势，Askew仍然对比特币的长期价格轨迹看涨，尽管他认为市场的行为正在转移到更逐渐，持续的增长而不是极端投机性周期。

According to Askew, Bitcoin’s price is likely to continue increasing in the long run due to several key factors:

根据Askew的数据，由于几个关键因素，从长远来看，比特币的价格可能会继续上涨：

* Steady institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.

* ETF和公司国库的稳定机构需求。

* Reduced mining hardware upgrades, leading to a more stable industry.

*减少了采矿硬件升级，导致了更稳定的行业。

* Potential government involvement in Bitcoin reserves.

*潜在的政府参与比特币储备。

* Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, inflation, and global liquidity cycles.

*宏观经济状况，例如利率，通货膨胀和全球流动性周期。

Askew's analysis suggests that as Bitcoin's market structure matures, it may become less susceptible to sharp price swings, making it a more attractive long-term asset for institutions

Askew的分析表明，随着比特币的市场结构的成熟，它可能不太容易出现急剧的价格波动，这使其成为机构的更具吸引力的长期资产