比特幣的市場結構正在發展，其曾經可預測的四年周期可能不再具有相同的相關性

比特幣的市場結構正在發展，其曾經可預測的四年周期可能不再具有相同的相關性。

Bitcoin’s market structure is evolving, and its once-predictable four-year cycles may no longer hold the same relevance. In a recent conversation with Matt Crosby, lead analyst at Bitcoin Magazine Pro, Mitchell Askew, Head Analyst at Blockware Solutions, shared his perspective on how Bitcoin ETFs, mining advancements, and institutional adoption are shaping the asset’s price behavior.

比特幣的市場結構正在發展，其曾經可預測的四年周期可能不再具有相同的相關性。在與馬特·克羅斯比（Matt Crosby）的最近對話中，Blockware Solutions的Bitcoin Magazine Pro的首席分析師Mitchell Askew分析了他對比特幣ETF，採礦和採用機構採用的看法，正在塑造資產的價格行為。

According to Askew, Bitcoin’s historical pattern of parabolic price increases followed by steep drawdowns is changing as institutional investors enter the market. At the same time, the mining industry is becoming more efficient and stable, creating new dynamics that affect Bitcoin’s supply and price trends.

根據Askew的說法，隨著機構投資者進入市場，比特幣的拋物線價格上漲的歷史模式隨之而來。同時，採礦業變得越來越有效和穩定，創造了影響比特幣供應和價格趨勢的新動態。

Askew suggests that Bitcoin may no longer experience the extreme cycles of past bull and bear markets. Historically, halving events reduced miner rewards, triggered supply shocks, and fueled rapid price increases, often followed by corrections of 70% or more. However, the increasing presence of institutional investors is leading to a more structured, macro-driven market.

Askew建議比特幣可能不再經歷過去的牛市和熊市的極端週期。從歷史上看，將事件減少減少礦工的獎勵，觸發供應衝擊並加劇價格上漲，然後校正70％或以上。但是，機構投資者的存在日益增加，導致了一個更具結構化的宏觀驅動市場。

He explains that Spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations are bringing consistent demand into Bitcoin, reducing the likelihood of extreme boom-and-bust price movements. Unlike retail traders, who tend to buy in euphoria and panic-sell during downturns, institutions are more likely to sell into strength and accumulate Bitcoin on dips.

他解釋說，現貨比特幣ETF和公司財政部分配給比特幣帶來了一致的需求，從而減少了極端繁榮和狂暴的價格變動的可能性。與零售商交易員傾向於在低迷期間在Euphoria和Panic-Sell中購買，機構更有可能將其銷售成強度並在下降中累積比特幣。

Askew also notes that since Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024, price movements have become more measured, with longer consolidation periods before continued growth. This suggests Bitcoin is beginning to behave more like a traditional financial asset, rather than a speculative high-volatility market.

Askew還指出，自比特幣ETF於2024年1月推出以來，價格變動已經越來越多，在持續增長之前的合併期更長。這表明比特幣的行為開始更像是傳統的金融資產，而不是投機性的高揮發性市場。

As a mining analyst at Blockware Solutions, Askew provides insight into how Bitcoin mining dynamics influence price trends. He notes that while many assume a rising hash rate is always bullish, the reality is more complex.

作為Blockware Solutions的採礦分析師，Askew提供了對比特幣採礦動態如何影響價格趨勢的見解。他指出，儘管許多人認為哈希速度的上升總是看好的，但現實卻更為複雜。

In the short term, increasing hash rate can be bearish, as it leads to higher competition among miners and more Bitcoin being sold to cover electricity costs. However, over the long term, a rising hash rate reflects greater investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and network security.

在短期內，增加的哈希速率可能是看跌，因為這會導致礦工之間的競爭更高，並且出售更多的比特幣以支付電力成本。但是，從長遠來看，哈希速率上升反映了對比特幣基礎設施和網絡安全的投資。

Another key observation from Askew is that Bitcoin’s hash rate growth lags behind price growth by 3-12 months. When Bitcoin’s price rises sharply, mining profitability increases, prompting more capital to flow into mining infrastructure. However, deploying new mining rigs and setting up facilities takes time, leading to a delayed impact on hash rate expansion.

Askew的另一個主要觀察結果是，比特幣的哈希率增長落後於價格增長3-12個月。當比特幣的價格急劇上升時，採礦盈利能力會提高，促使更多的資本流入採礦基礎設施。但是，部署新的採礦鑽機並建立設施需要時間，從而延遲了對哈希稅率的擴大影響。

Askew also highlights that mining hardware efficiency is reaching a plateau, which has significant implications for miners and Bitcoin’s supply structure.

Askew還強調，採礦硬件效率達到了高原，這對礦工和比特幣的供應結構具有重大影響。

If you're thinking about Bitcoin mining, you MUST watch this clip.There's a trend developing in mining hardware that will bode extremely well for miners:– Longer machine lifespans– Slowing hashrate growth– Increased lag between price growth and hashrate growthBitcoin… pic.twitter.com/H0ZjsCm7Rc

如果您正在考慮比特幣開採，則必須觀看此剪輯。採礦硬件的發展趨勢會非常適合礦工： - 較長的機器壽命 - 放大哈希底層增長 - 價格增長和哈希酸鹽生長中的滯後和增加的滯後...

In Bitcoin’s early years, new mining machines offered dramatic efficiency improvements, forcing miners to upgrade hardware every 1-2 years to remain competitive. Today, however, new models are only about 10% more efficient than the previous generation. As a result, mining rigs can now remain profitable for 4-8 years, reducing the pressure on miners to continuously reinvest in new equipment.

在比特幣的早期，新的採礦機提供了巨大的效率提高，迫使礦工每1 - 2年升級硬件以保持競爭力。但是，如今，新型號的效率僅比上一代高約10％。結果，採礦鑽機現在可以保持4 - 8年的盈利，從而減少了礦工不斷再投資新設備的壓力。

Electricity costs remain the biggest factor in mining profitability, and Askew explains that miners are increasingly seeking low-cost power sources to maintain long-term sustainability. Many companies, including Blockware Solutions, operate in rural U.S. locations with stable energy prices, ensuring better profitability even during market downturns.

電力成本仍然是採礦盈利能力的最大因素，Askew解釋說，礦工越來越多地尋求低成本的電源來維持長期可持續性。許多公司，包括阻止軟件解決方案，在美國農村地區的能源價格穩定的地點運營，從而確保甚至在市場衰退期間也可以更好地盈利能力。

Another important discussion point raised by Askew is the potential for a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). Some policymakers have proposed that the U.S. government accumulate Bitcoin in the same way it holds gold reserves, recognizing its potential as a global store of value.

Askew提出的另一個重要的討論點是美國戰略比特幣儲備（SBR）的潛力。一些政策制定者提出，美國政府以其持有黃金儲量的方式積累了比特幣，並承認其作為全球價值存儲的潛力。

Askew explains that if such a reserve were implemented, it could create a massive supply shock, pushing Bitcoin’s price significantly higher. However, he cautions that government action is slow and would likely involve gradual accumulation rather than sudden large-scale purchases.

Askew解釋說，如果實施了這樣的儲備金，它可能會造成巨大的供應衝擊，從而將比特幣的價格明顯更高。但是，他警告政府行動緩慢，可能涉及逐漸積累，而不是突然的大規模購買。

Even if implemented over several years, such a program could further reinforce Bitcoin’s long-term bullish trajectory by removing available supply from the market.

即使實施了幾年，這種計劃也可以通過消除市場可用的供應來進一步加強比特幣的長期看漲軌跡。

Based on current trends, Askew remains bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term price trajectory, though he believes the market’s behavior is shifting toward more gradual, sustained growth rather than extreme speculative cycles.

根據當前的趨勢，Askew仍然對比特幣的長期價格軌跡看漲，儘管他認為市場的行為正在轉移到更逐漸，持續的增長而不是極端投機性週期。

According to Askew, Bitcoin’s price is likely to continue increasing in the long run due to several key factors:

根據Askew的數據，由於幾個關鍵因素，從長遠來看，比特幣的價格可能會繼續上漲：

* Steady institutional demand from ETFs and corporate treasuries.

* ETF和公司國庫的穩定機構需求。

* Reduced mining hardware upgrades, leading to a more stable industry.

*減少了採礦硬件升級，導致了更穩定的行業。

* Potential government involvement in Bitcoin reserves.

*潛在的政府參與比特幣儲備。

* Macroeconomic conditions such as interest rates, inflation, and global liquidity cycles.

*宏觀經濟狀況，例如利率，通貨膨脹和全球流動性週期。

Askew's analysis suggests that as Bitcoin's market structure matures, it may become less susceptible to sharp price swings, making it a more attractive long-term asset for institutions

Askew的分析表明，隨著比特幣的市場結構的成熟，它可能不太容易出現急劇的價格波動，這使其成為機構的更具吸引力的長期資產