比特币持仓量和杠杆率大幅上升：准备好迎接影响了吗？

数据显示，近期比特币衍生品市场相关指标不断升温，这可能导致比特币价格出现更大波动。

Indicators pertaining to the Bitcoin derivatives market are heating up once again, a development that could lead to heightened volatility in BTC’s price.

与比特币衍生品市场相关的指标再次升温，这一发展可能导致比特币价格波动加剧。

Bitcoin Open Interest & Leverage Ratio Have Shot Up

比特币持仓量和杠杆率大幅上升

As noted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a recent post on X, the Bitcoin Open Interest has seen a sharp increase, coinciding with the asset’s return to levels above $100,000.

正如 CryptoQuant 社区分析师 Maartunn 最近在 X 上发表的一篇文章中指出的那样，比特币持仓量急剧增加，同时该资产也回到了 100,000 美元以上的水平。

For the uninitiated, “Open Interest” is a metric that keeps track of the total number of derivatives positions related to BTC that are currently open on all centralized exchanges.

对于外行来说，“未平仓合约”是一个指标，用于跟踪所有中心化交易所当前未平仓的与 BTC 相关的衍生品头寸总数。

The following chart shared by the analyst shows the trend in the percentage change of the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past month :

分析师分享的下图显示了过去一个月比特币持仓量百分比变化趋势：

As evident from the chart, the Bitcoin Open Interest has undergone a drastic percentage change for the better recently, indicating the opening up of a large number of positions in the market. Past instances of the indicator observing a high percentage increase have been highlighted by Maartunn in the chart.

从图表中可以看出，比特币持仓量近期出现了大幅的百分比变化，表明市场上出现了大量头寸。 Maartunn 在图表中强调了该指标过去观察到高百分比增长的实例。

Interestingly, the price seemed to experience a cooling-off period following the formation of this pattern during the past month.

有趣的是，在过去一个月这种模式形成后，价格似乎经历了一段冷静期。

Coming to the reason behind this pattern, it has to do with the fact that a higher number of positions usually indicate the presence of a greater amount of leverage in the sector.

谈到这种模式背后的原因，它与以下事实有关：头寸数量越高，通常表明该行业存在更大的杠杆。

In such circumstances, a market event known as a squeeze becomes more likely to occur.

在这种情况下，称为挤压的市场事件更有可能发生。

During a squeeze, a massive number of positions get liquidated at once, feeding into the price move that caused them. The elongated price move then leads to a cascade of further liquidations.

在紧缩期间，大量头寸立即被清算，从而导致价格波动。长期的价格走势会导致一系列进一步的清算。

A squeeze is more likely to affect the side of the market that has the more leveraged positions. Since the past increases in Open Interest came during rallies, the new positions were likely long ones. This may be why the market ended up experiencing a long squeeze to wipe out these excess positions.

紧缩更有可能影响市场中杠杆率较高的一方。由于过去未平仓合约的增加是在反弹期间出现的，因此新的头寸可能是多头头寸。这可能就是市场最终经历多头挤压以消除这些多余头寸的原因。

It’s possible that the latest Open Interest increase could also lead to a similar outcome for Bitcoin, considering that these fresh positions have also come up during a rally.

考虑到这些新头寸也在反弹期间出现，最新的未平仓合约增加也可能导致比特币出现类似的结果。

However, it all depends on whether or not these positions are overleveraged.

然而，这完全取决于这些头寸是否过度杠杆化。

Unfortunately for the cryptocurrency, this requirement also seems to be fulfilled, as data for the Estimated Leverage Ratio shared by CryptoQuant author IT Tech in an X post suggests.

不幸的是，对于加密货币来说，这一要求似乎也得到了满足，正如 CryptoQuant 作者 IT Tech 在 X 帖子中分享的估计杠杆率数据所表明的那样。

As the name implies, the Estimated Leverage Ratio tells us the average amount of leverage that the users on the derivatives market are opting for.

顾名思义，估计杠杆率告诉我们衍生品市场用户选择的平均杠杆金额。

Considering that this metric has also spiked sharply, coinciding with the Open Interest increase, the new positions that have appeared could be carrying significant leverage.

考虑到该指标也大幅飙升，与未平仓合约的增加同时发生，出现的新头寸可能具有巨大的杠杆作用。

It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin will develop in the coming days, especially in light of the potential overheated conditions that have developed in these derivatives indicators.

现在，比特币在未来几天将如何发展还有待观察，特别是考虑到这些衍生品指标可能出现的过热状况。

BTC Price

比特币价格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $100,400, having risen by over 2% during the past seven days.

截至撰写本文时，比特币的价值约为 100,400 美元，在过去 7 天内上涨了 2% 以上。