比特幣持倉量和槓桿率大幅上升：準備好迎接影響了嗎？

數據顯示，近期比特幣衍生性商品市場相關指標不斷升溫，可能導致比特幣價格出現更大波動。

Indicators pertaining to the Bitcoin derivatives market are heating up once again, a development that could lead to heightened volatility in BTC’s price.

與比特幣衍生性商品市場相關的指標再次升溫，這項發展可能導致比特幣價格波動加劇。

Bitcoin Open Interest & Leverage Ratio Have Shot Up

比特幣持倉量和槓桿率大幅上升

As noted by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a recent post on X, the Bitcoin Open Interest has seen a sharp increase, coinciding with the asset’s return to levels above $100,000.

正如 CryptoQuant 社群分析師 Maartunn 最近在 X 上發表的一篇文章中指出的那樣，比特幣持倉量急劇增加，同時該資產也回到了 10 萬美元以上的水平。

For the uninitiated, “Open Interest” is a metric that keeps track of the total number of derivatives positions related to BTC that are currently open on all centralized exchanges.

對於外行人來說，「未平倉合約」是一個指標，用於追蹤所有中心化交易所當前未平倉的與 BTC 相關的衍生性商品頭寸總數。

The following chart shared by the analyst shows the trend in the percentage change of the Bitcoin Open Interest over the past month :

分析師分享的下圖顯示了過去一個月比特幣持倉量百分比變化趨勢：

As evident from the chart, the Bitcoin Open Interest has undergone a drastic percentage change for the better recently, indicating the opening up of a large number of positions in the market. Past instances of the indicator observing a high percentage increase have been highlighted by Maartunn in the chart.

從圖表中可以看出，比特幣持倉量近期出現了大幅的百分比變化，顯示市場上出現了大量部位。 Maartunn 在圖表中強調了該指標過去觀察到高百分比成長的實例。

Interestingly, the price seemed to experience a cooling-off period following the formation of this pattern during the past month.

有趣的是，在過去一個月這種模式形成後，價格似乎經歷了一段冷靜期。

Coming to the reason behind this pattern, it has to do with the fact that a higher number of positions usually indicate the presence of a greater amount of leverage in the sector.

談到這種模式背後的原因，它與以下事實有關：頭寸數量越高，通常表明該行業存在更大的槓桿。

In such circumstances, a market event known as a squeeze becomes more likely to occur.

在這種情況下，稱為擠壓的市場事件更有可能發生。

During a squeeze, a massive number of positions get liquidated at once, feeding into the price move that caused them. The elongated price move then leads to a cascade of further liquidations.

在緊縮期間，大量部位立即被清算，導致價格波動。價格長期波動會導致一系列進一步的清算。

A squeeze is more likely to affect the side of the market that has the more leveraged positions. Since the past increases in Open Interest came during rallies, the new positions were likely long ones. This may be why the market ended up experiencing a long squeeze to wipe out these excess positions.

緊縮更可能影響市場中槓桿率較高的一方。由於過去未平倉合約的增加是在反彈期間出現的，因此新的部位可能是多頭部位。這可能是市場最終經歷多頭擠壓以消除這些多餘頭寸的原因。

It’s possible that the latest Open Interest increase could also lead to a similar outcome for Bitcoin, considering that these fresh positions have also come up during a rally.

考慮到這些新部位也在反彈期間出現，最新的未平倉合約增加也可能導致比特幣出現類似的結果。

However, it all depends on whether or not these positions are overleveraged.

然而，這完全取決於這些部位是否過度槓桿化。

Unfortunately for the cryptocurrency, this requirement also seems to be fulfilled, as data for the Estimated Leverage Ratio shared by CryptoQuant author IT Tech in an X post suggests.

不幸的是，對於加密貨幣來說，這項要求似乎也得到了滿足，正如 CryptoQuant 作者 IT Tech 在 X 貼文中分享的估計槓桿率數據所表明的那樣。

As the name implies, the Estimated Leverage Ratio tells us the average amount of leverage that the users on the derivatives market are opting for.

顧名思義，估計槓桿率告訴我們衍生性商品市場使用者選擇的平均槓桿金額。

Considering that this metric has also spiked sharply, coinciding with the Open Interest increase, the new positions that have appeared could be carrying significant leverage.

考慮到該指標也急劇飆升，與未平倉量的增加同時發生，出現的新部位可能具有巨大的槓桿作用。

It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin will develop in the coming days, especially in light of the potential overheated conditions that have developed in these derivatives indicators.

現在，比特幣在未來幾天將如何發展還有待觀察，特別是考慮到這些衍生性商品指標可能出現的過熱狀況。

BTC Price

比特幣價格

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $100,400, having risen by over 2% during the past seven days.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣的價值約為 100,400 美元，在過去 7 天內上漲了 2% 以上。