比特币减半后一年：一个周期与其他任何人不同

这个比特币周期的展现与以前的周期明显不同，这表明市场对减半事件的反应可能发生了变化。

Bitcoin (BTC) is now one year past its most recent halving, and this cycle is shaping up to be unlike any before it.

比特币（BTC）现在已经过去了一年，而这个周期正与之前的任何一个不同。

Unlike previous cycles where explosive rallies followed the halving, BTC has seen a far more muted gain, up just 31%, compared to 436% over the same timeframe in the last cycle.

与以前的爆炸性集会之后的周期不同，BTC的收益率高得多，仅为31％，而在上一个周期中相同的时间范围则为436％。

At the same time, long-term holder metrics like the MVRV ratio are signaling a sharp decline in unrealized profits, pointing to a maturing market with compressing upside. Together, these shifts suggest Bitcoin may be entering a new era, defined less by parabolic peaks and more by gradual, institution-driven growth.

同时，像MVRV比率这样的长期持有人指标表明，未实现的利润急剧下降，指出了一个成熟的市场，并带有压缩上涨空间。这些转变共同表明，比特币可能正在进入一个新时代，而抛物线峰的定义较少，而逐渐以机构为导向的增长来定义。

A Year After the Bitcoin Halving: A Cycle Unlike Any Other

比特币减半后一年：一个周期与其他任何人不同

This Bitcoin cycle is unfolding noticeably differently than previous ones, signaling a potential shift in how the market responds to halving events.

这个比特币周期的展现与以前的周期明显不同，这表明市场对减半事件的反应可能发生了变化。

In earlier cycles—most notably from 2012 to 2016 and again from 2016 to 2020—Bitcoin tended to rally aggressively around this stage. The post-halving period was often marked by strong upward momentum and parabolic price action, largely fueled by retail enthusiasm and speculative demand.

在较早的周期中，尤其是从2012年到2016年，从2016年到2020年，Bitcoin倾向于在此阶段积极地集会。备受期间的时期通常以强劲的向上势头和抛物线价格行动为特征，在很大程度上以零售热情和投机性需求推动。

However, the current cycle has taken a different route. Instead of the price surge beginning after the halving, it began earlier, in October and December 2024, followed by consolidation in January 2025 and a correction in late February.

但是，当前周期采取了不同的路线。它不是在减半之后开始的价格上涨，而是从2024年10月和12月开始的，随后在2025年1月进行合并，并于2月下旬进行了更正。

This front-loaded behavior diverges sharply from historical patterns where halvings typically acted as the catalyst for major rallies.

这种前载的行为与历史模式急剧不同，在历史模式下，中度通常是主要集会的催化剂。

Several factors are contributing to this shift. Bitcoin is no longer just a retail-driven speculative asset—it’s increasingly seen as a maturing financial instrument. The growing involvement of institutional investors, coupled with macroeconomic pressures and structural changes in the market, has led to a more measured and complex response.

有几个因素导致了这一转变。比特币不再仅仅是零售驱动的投机资产，它越来越被视为一种成熟的金融工具。机构投资者的参与日益加剧，再加上宏观经济压力和市场的结构变化，导致了更加衡量和复杂的反应。

Another clear sign of this evolution is the weakening strength of each successive cycle. The explosive gains of the early years have become harder to replicate as Bitcoin’s market cap has grown. For instance, in the 2020–2024 cycle, Bitcoin had climbed 436% one year after the halving.

这种演变的另一个明显迹象是每个连续周期的强度降低。随着比特币的市值不断增长，早期的爆炸性收益变得越来越难复制。例如，在2020-2024周期中，比特币在减半后一年攀升了436％。

In contrast, this cycle has seen a much more modest 31% increase over the same timeframe.

相比之下，这个周期比同一时间表增加了31％。

This shift could mean Bitcoin is entering a new chapter. One with less wild volatility and more steady, long-term growth. The halving may no longer be the main driver. Other forces are taking over—rates, liquidity, and institutional money.

这种转变可能意味着比特币正在进入新的章节。一个野生动荡较小，长期增长较小。减半可能不再是主要驱动程序。其他部队正在接管利率，流动性和机构资金。

The game is changing. And so is the way Bitcoin moves.

游戏正在改变。比特币移动的方式也是如此。

Nonetheless, it’s important to note that previous cycles also featured periods of consolidation and correction before resuming their uptrend. While this phase may feel slower or less exciting, it could still represent a healthy reset before the next move higher.

尽管如此，重要的是要注意，以前的周期在恢复上升趋势之前还具有巩固和校正的时期。尽管此阶段可能会感到越来越慢或更令人兴奋，但在下一步更高之前，它仍然可以代表健康的重置。

That said, the possibility remains that this cycle will continue to diverge from historical patterns. Instead of a dramatic blow-off top, the outcome may be a more prolonged and structurally supported uptrend—less driven by hype, more by fundamentals.

也就是说，这个周期将继续与历史模式不同。该结果不是戏剧性的吹风顶部，而是更延长且结构上支持的上升趋势 - 不受炒作的驱动，而不是基本面。

What Long-Term Holder MVRV Reveals About Bitcoin’s Maturing Market

长期持有人MVRV揭示了比特币的成熟市场

The Long-Term Holder (LTH) MVRV ratio has always been a solid measure of unrealized profits. It shows how much long-term investors are sitting on before they start selling. But over time, this number is falling.

长期持有人（LTH）MVRV比率一直是未实现的利润的坚实衡量。它显示了在开始销售之前坐着多少长期投资者。但是随着时间的流逝，这个数字正在下降。

In the 2016–2020 cycle, LTH MVRV peaked at 35.8. That signaled massive paper profits and a clear top forming. By the 2016–2020 cycle, the peak dropped sharply to 12.2. This happened even as Bitcoin price hit fresh all-time highs.

在2016 - 2020年的周期中，LTH MVRV以35.8达到峰值。这表明了大量纸张利润和清晰的顶部形成。到2016 - 2020年周期，峰值急剧下降至12.2。即使比特币价格达到新鲜的高潮，这也是如此。

In the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV so far is just 4.35. That’s a massive drop. It shows long-term holders aren’t seeing the same kind of gains. The trend is clear: each cycle delivers smaller multiples.

在当前周期中，到目前为止，最高的LTH MVRV仅为4.35。那是一个大量的下降。它表明长期持有人没有看到相同的收益。趋势很明显：每个周期都会提供较小的倍数。

Bitcoin’s explosive upside is compressing. The market is maturing.

比特币的爆炸性上升空间正在压缩。市场正在成熟。

Now, in the current cycle, the highest LTH MVRV reading so far has been 4.35. This stark drop suggests long-term holders are experiencing much lower multiples on their holdings compared to previous cycles, even with substantial price appreciation. The pattern points to one conclusion: Bitcoin’s upside is compressing.

现在，在当前周期中，到目前为止，最高的LTH MVRV读数为4.35。这种鲜明的下降表明，与以前的周期相比，长期持有人的持有量也要低得多，即使价格很大。模式指出了一个结论：比特币的上升空间正在压缩。

This isn’t just a fluke. As the market matures, explosive gains are naturally harder to come by. The days of extreme, cycle-driven profit multiples may be fading, replaced by more moderate—but potentially more stable—growth.

这不仅仅是flu虫。随着市场的成熟，爆炸性的收益自然很难获得。极端，循环驱动的利润倍数的日子可能正在逐渐消失，取而代之的是更温和的（但可能更稳定）的成长。

A growing market cap means it takes exponentially more capital to move the price significantly.

不断增长的市值意味着要大幅提高价格需要大量资本。

Still, it’s not definitive proof that this cycle has already topped out. Previous cycles often included extended periods of sideways movement or modest pullbacks before new

尽管如此，这个周期已经达到了最佳状态并不是明确的证据。以前的周期通常包括横向运动的长时间或新的回调