ETF 推出后，比特币在美国交易时间之外的涨幅飙升

自现货比特币 ETF 推出以来，比特币的大部分每日涨幅都发生在美国交易时间之外，这为交易者提供了机会。这一趋势标志着过去两年的逆转，过去两年的涨幅通常集中在美国时段。分析师表示，投资者可以通过在美国交易时间之前购买比特币并在几个小时后出售来利用微薄的利润。

Bitcoin Gains Predominantly Outside U.S. Trading Hours Post-Spot ETF Launch

现货 ETF 推出后，比特币主要在美国交易时间之外上涨

Since the advent of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a notable shift has occurred in the temporal distribution of Bitcoin's daily gains, with the majority now accruing outside U.S. trading hours. This trend, which represents a departure from the pattern observed over the past two years, presents potential opportunities for traders who seek to capitalize on the frequent small margins of profit that arise during these periods.

自从现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）出现以来，比特币每日收益的时间分布发生了显着的变化，其中大部分现在是在美国交易时间之外累积的。这一趋势与过去两年观察到的模式有所不同，为那些寻求利用这些时期频繁出现的小额利润的交易者提供了潜在的机会。

Markus Thielen, a researcher at digital research firm 10x Research, has observed this recent trend and suggests that investors can take advantage of the information by purchasing Bitcoin prior to the commencement of U.S. trading hours and selling a few hours later.

数字研究公司 10x Research 的研究员 Markus Thielen 观察到了这一近期趋势，并建议投资者可以利用这一信息，在美国交易时间开始之前购买比特币，并在几个小时后出售。

"Traders can take advantage of this information and buy Bitcoin ahead of the US trading hours and sell a few hours later," Thielen explained to Cointelegraph.

“交易者可以利用这一信息，在美国交易时间之前购买比特币，并在几个小时后出售，”蒂伦向 Cointelegraph 解释道。

On April 4th, Bitcoin witnessed an approximate 2.6% rally outside U.S. trading hours, while price increases during U.S. hours were limited to around 0.6%. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also corroborated this trend, indicating in an April 5th post on X that "the vast majority of the 40% gains" in Bitcoin since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11th have transpired outside regular U.S. market trading hours.

4 月 4 日，比特币在美国交易时间以外上涨了约 2.6%，而美国交易时间期间的价格涨幅仅限于 0.6% 左右。彭博 ETF 分析师 Eric Balchunas 也证实了这一趋势，他在 4 月 5 日的 X 帖子中表示，自 1 月 11 日推出现货比特币 ETF 以来，比特币“40% 的涨幅”中的大部分都是在美国市场常规交易时间之外发生的。

U.S. trading hours encompass the operating hours of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq stock exchange, which run from 2.30 pm to 9 pm UTC.

美国交易时间包括纽约证券交易所 (NYSE) 和纳斯达克证券交易所的营业时间，即世界标准时间下午 2.30 至晚上 9 点。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $68,400, having experienced a remarkable 64% growth in the first quarter of 2024, as reported by Cointelegraph.

据 Cointelegraph 报道，截至发稿时，比特币交易价格为 68,400 美元，在 2024 年第一季度经历了 64% 的惊人增长。

Pre-Market Purchases and ETF Inflows

盘前购买和 ETF 流入

Thielen attributed the pre-market surge in Bitcoin prices to the anticipation of increased ETF inflows among investors, including those from various time zones.

蒂伦将比特币盘前价格飙升归因于投资者（包括来自不同时区的投资者）对 ETF 资金流入增加的预期。

"We also noticed through our data analysis that Bitcoin tends to rise during the 1-4 hours before U.S. ETFs start trading on that day, a sign that there is likely front running of the ETF flow occurring," he added.

他补充道：“我们还通过数据分析注意到，比特币往往会在美国 ETF 当天开始交易前 1-4 小时内上涨，这表明 ETF 流量可能会出现抢先交易。”

On April 4th, Bitcoin experienced a modest 2.6% increase in the four hours preceding the opening of the U.S. market, rising from $65,593 to $67,308.

4 月 4 日，比特币在美国市场开盘前四个小时内小幅上涨 2.6%，从 65,593 美元升至 67,308 美元。

Arbitrage and Market Spread

套利和市场价差

Thielen remarked that U.S. investors tend to capitalize on the market spread between the spot market and the futures market.

蒂伦表示，美国投资者倾向于利用现货市场和期货市场之间的市场价差。

"The buying flow during US trading hours appears mostly arbitrage - buying Bitcoin Spot ETFs but selling CME-listed Bitcoin futures as hedge funds pocked the futures premium," Thielen stated.

蒂伦表示：“美国交易时段的购买流主要是套利——买入比特币现货 ETF，但卖出在 CME 上市的比特币期货，因为对冲基金挤走了期货溢价。”

Historical Precedents and Other Markets

历史先例和其他市场

The current trend in Bitcoin gains outside U.S. trading hours is not an isolated phenomenon. In June 2022, two ETF funds, the NightShares 500 ETF and the NightShares 2000 (NIWM), were launched to capitalize on overnight increases in U.S. stocks. However, these products were subsequently discontinued in July 2023 due to the diminished performance caused by off-hours announcements, data releases, and earnings reports.

当前比特币在美国交易时间以外上涨的趋势并不是一个孤立的现象。 2022 年 6 月，推出了两只 ETF 基金：NightShares 500 ETF 和 NightShares 2000 (NIWM)，以利用美国股市隔夜上涨的机会。然而，由于非工作时间公告、数据发布和收益报告导致性能下降，这些产品随后于 2023 年 7 月停产。

Prior to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, it was widely recognized that Asian investors constituted the primary source of selling during Asian market hours. In March 2022, Cointelegraph reported that investors based in Asia generally sold while those in the U.S. and EU acted as buyers in the two preceding years.

在推出现货比特币 ETF 之前，人们普遍认为亚洲投资者是亚洲市场时段的主要抛售来源。 2022 年 3 月，Cointelegraph 报道称，前两年，亚洲投资者普遍抛售，而美国和欧盟投资者则充当买家。

Glassnode researcher and report writer "Checkmate" highlighted the consistent bid support provided by U.S. and European investors over the past two years. However, Asian markets typically exhibited weaker buying support during Q1-Q3 of 2021 and were associated with substantial selling pressure.

Glassnode 研究员兼报告撰稿人“Checkmate”强调了过去两年美国和欧洲投资者提供的持续收购支持。然而，亚洲市场在 2021 年第一季度至第三季度通常表现出较弱的买盘支持，并伴随着巨大的抛售压力。

In conclusion, the recent trend of Bitcoin gains predominantly occurring outside U.S. trading hours presents a unique opportunity for traders to capitalize on frequent small profit margins. This shift, coupled with the insights provided by 10x Research and other analysts, enables traders to make informed decisions and optimize their strategies accordingly.

总之，近期比特币上涨趋势主要发生在美国交易时间之外，为交易者提供了一个独特的机会，可以利用频繁的小额利润。这种转变，再加上 10x Research 和其他分析师提供的见解，使交易者能够做出明智的决策并相应地优化其策略。