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加密貨幣新聞文章

ETF 推出後,比特幣在美國交易時間之外的漲幅飆升

2024/04/05 12:01

自從現貨比特幣 ETF 推出以來,比特幣的大部分每日漲幅都發生在美國交易時間之外,這為交易者提供了機會。這一趨勢標誌著過去兩年的逆轉,過去兩年的漲幅通常集中在美國時段。分析師表示,投資者可以透過在美國交易時間之前購買比特幣並在幾個小時後出售來利用微薄的利潤。

ETF 推出後,比特幣在美國交易時間之外的漲幅飆升

Bitcoin Gains Predominantly Outside U.S. Trading Hours Post-Spot ETF Launch

現貨 ETF 推出後,比特幣主要在美國交易時間之外上漲

Since the advent of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), a notable shift has occurred in the temporal distribution of Bitcoin's daily gains, with the majority now accruing outside U.S. trading hours. This trend, which represents a departure from the pattern observed over the past two years, presents potential opportunities for traders who seek to capitalize on the frequent small margins of profit that arise during these periods.

自從現貨比特幣交易所交易基金(ETF)出現以來,比特幣每日收益的時間分佈發生了顯著的變化,其中大部分現在是在美國交易時間之外累積的。這一趨勢與過去兩年觀察到的模式有所不同,為那些尋求利用這些時期頻繁出現的小額利潤的交易者提供了潛在的機會。

Markus Thielen, a researcher at digital research firm 10x Research, has observed this recent trend and suggests that investors can take advantage of the information by purchasing Bitcoin prior to the commencement of U.S. trading hours and selling a few hours later.

數位研究公司 10x Research 的研究員 Markus Thielen 觀察到了這一近期趨勢,並建議投資者可以利用這一信息,在美國交易時間開始之前購買比特幣,並在幾個小時後出售。

"Traders can take advantage of this information and buy Bitcoin ahead of the US trading hours and sell a few hours later," Thielen explained to Cointelegraph.

「交易者可以利用這一訊息,在美國交易時間之前購買比特幣,並在幾個小時後出售,」蒂倫向 Cointelegraph 解釋道。

On April 4th, Bitcoin witnessed an approximate 2.6% rally outside U.S. trading hours, while price increases during U.S. hours were limited to around 0.6%. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas also corroborated this trend, indicating in an April 5th post on X that "the vast majority of the 40% gains" in Bitcoin since the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs on January 11th have transpired outside regular U.S. market trading hours.

4 月 4 日,比特幣在美國交易時間以外上漲了約 2.6%,而美國交易時間期間的價格漲幅僅限於 0.6% 左右。彭博ETF 分析師Eric Balchunas 也證實了這一趨勢,他在4 月5 日的X 帖子中表示,自1 月11 日推出現貨比特幣ETF 以來,比特幣“40% 的漲幅”中的大部分都是在美國市場常規交易時間之外發生的。

U.S. trading hours encompass the operating hours of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Nasdaq stock exchange, which run from 2.30 pm to 9 pm UTC.

美國交易時間包括紐約證券交易所 (NYSE) 和納斯達克證券交易所的營業時間,即世界標準時間下午 2.30 至晚上 9 點。

At the time of publication, Bitcoin is trading at $68,400, having experienced a remarkable 64% growth in the first quarter of 2024, as reported by Cointelegraph.

根據 Cointelegraph 報導,截至發稿時,比特幣交易價格為 68,400 美元,在 2024 年第一季經歷了 64% 的驚人成長。

Pre-Market Purchases and ETF Inflows

盤前購買和 ETF 流入

Thielen attributed the pre-market surge in Bitcoin prices to the anticipation of increased ETF inflows among investors, including those from various time zones.

蒂倫將比特幣盤前價格飆升歸因於投資者(包括來自不同時區的投資者)對 ETF 資金流入增加的預期。

"We also noticed through our data analysis that Bitcoin tends to rise during the 1-4 hours before U.S. ETFs start trading on that day, a sign that there is likely front running of the ETF flow occurring," he added.

他補充說:“我們還通過數據分析注意到,比特幣往往會在美國 ETF 當天開始交易前 1-4 小時內上漲,這表明 ETF 流量可能會出現搶先交易。”

On April 4th, Bitcoin experienced a modest 2.6% increase in the four hours preceding the opening of the U.S. market, rising from $65,593 to $67,308.

4 月 4 日,比特幣在美國市場開盤前四個小時內小幅上漲 2.6%,從 65,593 美元升至 67,308 美元。

Arbitrage and Market Spread

套利和市價差

Thielen remarked that U.S. investors tend to capitalize on the market spread between the spot market and the futures market.

蒂倫表示,美國投資者傾向於利用現貨市場和期貨市場之間的市價差。

"The buying flow during US trading hours appears mostly arbitrage - buying Bitcoin Spot ETFs but selling CME-listed Bitcoin futures as hedge funds pocked the futures premium," Thielen stated.

蒂倫表示:“美國交易時段的購買流主要是套利——買入比特幣現貨 ETF,但賣出在 CME 上市的比特幣期貨,因為對沖基金擠出了期貨溢價。”

Historical Precedents and Other Markets

歷史先例和其他市場

The current trend in Bitcoin gains outside U.S. trading hours is not an isolated phenomenon. In June 2022, two ETF funds, the NightShares 500 ETF and the NightShares 2000 (NIWM), were launched to capitalize on overnight increases in U.S. stocks. However, these products were subsequently discontinued in July 2023 due to the diminished performance caused by off-hours announcements, data releases, and earnings reports.

當前比特幣在美國交易時間以外上漲的趨勢並不是一個孤立的現象。 2022 年 6 月,推出了兩檔 ETF 基金:NightShares 500 ETF 和 NightShares 2000 (NIWM),以利用美國股市隔夜上漲的機會。然而,由於非工作時間公告、數據發布和收益報告導致效能下降,這些產品隨後於 2023 年 7 月停產。

Prior to the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs, it was widely recognized that Asian investors constituted the primary source of selling during Asian market hours. In March 2022, Cointelegraph reported that investors based in Asia generally sold while those in the U.S. and EU acted as buyers in the two preceding years.

在推出現貨比特幣 ETF 之前,人們普遍認為亞洲投資者是亞洲市場時段的主要拋售來源。 2022 年 3 月,Cointelegraph 報道稱,前兩年,亞洲投資者普遍拋售,而美國和歐盟投資者則充當買家。

Glassnode researcher and report writer "Checkmate" highlighted the consistent bid support provided by U.S. and European investors over the past two years. However, Asian markets typically exhibited weaker buying support during Q1-Q3 of 2021 and were associated with substantial selling pressure.

Glassnode 研究員兼報告撰稿人「Checkmate」強調了過去兩年美國和歐洲投資者提供的持續收購支持。然而,亞洲市場在 2021 年第一季至第三季通常表現出較弱的買盤支持,並伴隨著巨大的拋售壓力。

In conclusion, the recent trend of Bitcoin gains predominantly occurring outside U.S. trading hours presents a unique opportunity for traders to capitalize on frequent small profit margins. This shift, coupled with the insights provided by 10x Research and other analysts, enables traders to make informed decisions and optimize their strategies accordingly.

總而言之,近期比特幣上漲趨勢主要發生在美國交易時間之外,為交易者提供了一個獨特的機會,可以利用頻繁的小額利潤。這種轉變,再加上 10x Research 和其他分析師提供的見解,使交易者能夠做出明智的決策並相應地優化其策略。

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