尽管比特币在4月1日获得2.2％的收益，但自3月7日以来，BTC（BTC）的交易尚未超过89,000美元。

尽管比特币在4月1日的增长率为2.2％，但自3月7日以来，BTC（BTC）的交易尚未超过89,000美元。尽管最近的价格弱点通常与美国领导的全球贸易战的升级有关，但在唐纳德宣布唐纳德（Donald Trump）宣布关税之前很久，已经有几个因素对投资者的情绪一直在压重。

Despite Bitcoin’s 2.2% gains on April 1, BTC (BTC) has yet to trade above $89,000 since March 7.

尽管比特币在4月1日的增长率为2.2％，但自3月7日以来，BTC（BTC）尚未交易超过89,000美元。

While the recent price weakness has been linked to the escalating US-led global trade war, several factors had already been impacting investor sentiment long before President Donald Trump announced the tariffs.

尽管最近的价格疲软与美国领导的全球贸易战的升级有关，但在唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布关税之前很久，已经有几个因素影响了投资者的情绪。

Some market participants have claimed that Strategy’s $5.25 billion Bitcoin purchases since February are the primary reason BTC has held above the $80,000 support.

一些市场参与者声称，自2月以来，策略的购买是52.5亿美元的比特币购买，这是BTC持有的主要原因以高于80,000美元的支持。

But, regardless of who has been buying, the reality is that Bitcoin was already showing limited upside before President Trump announced the 10% Chinese import tariffs on Jan. 21.

但是，无论是谁购买的，现实情况是，在特朗普总统在1月21日宣布中国进口关税之前，比特币已经显示出有限的上涨空间。

Gold/USD (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

黄金/美元（左）与比特币/美元（右）。资料来源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

The S&P 500 index hit an all-time high on Feb. 19, exactly 30 days after the trade war began, while Bitcoin had repeatedly failed to hold above $100,000 for the previous three months.

标准普尔500指数在2月19日开始时有历史新高，恰好是贸易战争开始的30天，而比特币在过去三个月中曾多次未能持有超过100,000美元。

Although the trade war certainly affected investor risk appetite, strong evidence suggests Bitcoin’s price weakness started well before President Trump took office on Jan. 20.

尽管贸易战无疑影响了投资者的风险食欲，但有力的证据表明，比特币的价格疲软始于特朗普总统于1月20日上任。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows, strategic Bitcoin reserve expectations and inflationary trends

现场比特币ETF流入，战略比特币预期和通货膨胀趋势

Another data point that weakens the relation with tariffs is the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $2.75 billion in net inflows during the three weeks following Jan. 21.

削弱与关税关系的另一个数据点是现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），在1月21日之后的三周内，净流入量为27.5亿美元。

By Feb. 18, the US had announced plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and the European Union and China had already retaliated. In essence, institutional demand for Bitcoin persisted even as the trade war escalated.

到2月18日，美国宣布了计划对加拿大和墨西哥进口的关税征收关税，欧盟和中国已经进行了报复。从本质上讲，即使贸易战升级，对比特币的机构需求仍然存在。

Part of Bitcoin traders’ disappointment after Jan. 21 stems from excessive expectations surrounding President Trump’s campaign promise of a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile,” mentioned at the Bitcoin Conference in July 2024. As investors grew impatient, their frustration peaked when the actual executive order was issued on March 6.

比特币交易员在1月21日之后的失望的一部分是由于特朗普总统竞选承诺“战略性国家比特币库存”的期望过高，这是2024年7月的比特币会议上提到的。随着投资者的不耐烦，当他们的挫败感在3月6日发出实际行政命令时，他们的挫败感达到了顶峰。

A key factor behind Bitcoin’s struggle to break above $89,000 is an inflationary trend, reflecting a relatively successful strategy by global central banks. In February, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.5% year-over-year, while the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.2% in March.

比特币争取超过89,000美元的努力的关键因素是通货膨胀趋势，这反映了全球中央银行的相对成功的战略。 2月，美国个人消费支出（PCE）价格指数同比增长2.5％，而欧元区消费者价格指数（CPI）在3月增加了2.2％。

Investors turn more risk-averse following weak job market data

在工作市场数据疲软之​​后，投资者变得更加厌恶风险

In the second half of 2022, Bitcoin’s gains were driven by inflation surging above 5%, suggesting that businesses and families turned to cryptocurrency as a hedge against monetary debasement.

在2022年的下半年，比特币的收益受到通货膨胀率飙升至5％以上的驱动，这表明企业和家庭转向加密货币作为对冲货币贬低的对冲。

However, if inflation remains relatively under control in 2025, lower interest rates would favor real estate and the stock markets more directly than Bitcoin, as reduced financing costs propel those sectors.

但是，如果通货膨胀在2025年相对受到控制，那么较低的利率将有利于房地产，而股票市场比比特币更直接，因为降低的融资成本推动了这些部门。

US CPI inflation (left) vs. US 2-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView

美国CPI通货膨胀（左）与美国2年国库收益率（右）。资料来源：TradingView

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The weakening job market also dampens traders’ demand for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. In February, the US Labor Department reported job openings nearing a four-year low.

疲软的就业市场还削弱了交易者对包括比特币在内的风险资产的需求。 2月，美国劳工部报告的职位空缺接近四年。

Similarly, yields on the US 2-year Treasury fell to a six-month low, with investors accepting a modest 3.88% return for the safety of government-backed instruments. This data suggests a burgeoning choice for risk aversion, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin.

同样，美国2年的美国财政部的收益率下降到六个月的低点，投资者为政府支持的工具的安全而接受了3.88％的回报。该数据表明，风险规避的选择是一种新兴的选择，这对比特币不利。

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price weakness stems from investors’ unrealistic expectations of BTC acquisitions by the US Treasury, decreasing inflation potential supporting interest rate cuts, and a more risk-off macroeconomic environment as investors turn to short-term government bonds.

最终，比特币的价格疲软源于投资者对美国财政部对BTC收购的不切实际的期望，降低了通货膨胀潜在的支撑降低利率，并且随着投资者转向短期政府债券的风险较高的宏观经济环境。

While the trade war has had negative effects, Bitcoin was already showing signs of weakness before it began.

尽管贸易战争产生了负面影响，但比特币在开始之前已经显示出虚弱的迹象。