儘管比特幣在4月1日獲得2.2％的收益，但自3月7日以來，BTC（BTC）的交易尚未超過89,000美元。

儘管比特幣在4月1日的增長率為2.2％，但自3月7日以來，BTC（BTC）的交易尚未超過89,000美元。儘管最近的價格弱點通常與美國領導的全球貿易戰的升級有關，但在唐納德宣布唐納德（Donald Trump）宣布關稅之前很久，已經有幾個因素對投資者的情緒一直在壓重。

Despite Bitcoin’s 2.2% gains on April 1, BTC (BTC) has yet to trade above $89,000 since March 7.

儘管比特幣在4月1日的增長率為2.2％，但自3月7日以來，BTC（BTC）尚未交易超過89,000美元。

While the recent price weakness has been linked to the escalating US-led global trade war, several factors had already been impacting investor sentiment long before President Donald Trump announced the tariffs.

儘管最近的價格疲軟與美國領導的全球貿易戰的升級有關，但在唐納德·特朗普總統宣布關稅之前很久，已經有幾個因素影響了投資者的情緒。

Some market participants have claimed that Strategy’s $5.25 billion Bitcoin purchases since February are the primary reason BTC has held above the $80,000 support.

一些市場參與者聲稱，自2月以來，策略的購買是52.5億美元的比特幣購買，這是BTC持有的主要原因以高於80,000美元的支持。

But, regardless of who has been buying, the reality is that Bitcoin was already showing limited upside before President Trump announced the 10% Chinese import tariffs on Jan. 21.

但是，無論是誰購買的，現實情況是，在特朗普總統在1月21日宣布中國進口關稅之前，比特幣已經顯示出有限的上漲空間。

Gold/USD (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

黃金/美元（左）與比特幣/美元（右）。資料來源：TradingView / Cointelegraph

The S&P 500 index hit an all-time high on Feb. 19, exactly 30 days after the trade war began, while Bitcoin had repeatedly failed to hold above $100,000 for the previous three months.

標準普爾500指數在2月19日開始時有歷史新高，恰好是貿易戰爭開始的30天，而比特幣在過去三個月中曾多次未能持有超過100,000美元。

Although the trade war certainly affected investor risk appetite, strong evidence suggests Bitcoin’s price weakness started well before President Trump took office on Jan. 20.

儘管貿易戰無疑影響了投資者的風險食慾，但有力的證據表明，比特幣的價格疲軟始於特朗普總統於1月20日上任。

Spot Bitcoin ETFs inflows, strategic Bitcoin reserve expectations and inflationary trends

現場比特幣ETF流入，戰略比特幣預期和通貨膨脹趨勢

Another data point that weakens the relation with tariffs is the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which saw $2.75 billion in net inflows during the three weeks following Jan. 21.

削弱與關稅關係的另一個數據點是現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF），在1月21日之後的三週內，淨流入量為27.5億美元。

By Feb. 18, the US had announced plans to impose tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and the European Union and China had already retaliated. In essence, institutional demand for Bitcoin persisted even as the trade war escalated.

到2月18日，美國宣布了計劃對加拿大和墨西哥進口的關稅徵收關稅，歐盟和中國已經進行了報復。從本質上講，即使貿易戰升級，對比特幣的機構需求仍然存在。

Part of Bitcoin traders’ disappointment after Jan. 21 stems from excessive expectations surrounding President Trump’s campaign promise of a “strategic national Bitcoin stockpile,” mentioned at the Bitcoin Conference in July 2024. As investors grew impatient, their frustration peaked when the actual executive order was issued on March 6.

比特幣交易員在1月21日之後的失望的一部分是由於特朗普總統競選承諾“戰略性國家比特幣庫存”的期望過高，這是2024年7月的比特幣會議上提到的。隨著投資者的不耐煩，當他們的挫敗感在3月6日發出實際行政命令時，他們的挫敗感達到了頂峰。

A key factor behind Bitcoin’s struggle to break above $89,000 is an inflationary trend, reflecting a relatively successful strategy by global central banks. In February, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose 2.5% year-over-year, while the eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.2% in March.

比特幣爭取超過89,000美元的努力的關鍵因素是通貨膨脹趨勢，這反映了全球中央銀行的相對成功的戰略。 2月，美國個人消費支出（PCE）價格指數同比增長2.5％，而歐元區消費者價格指數（CPI）在3月增加了2.2％。

Investors turn more risk-averse following weak job market data

在工作市場數據疲軟之​​後，投資者變得更加厭惡風險

In the second half of 2022, Bitcoin’s gains were driven by inflation surging above 5%, suggesting that businesses and families turned to cryptocurrency as a hedge against monetary debasement.

在2022年的下半年，比特幣的收益受到通貨膨脹率飆升至5％以上的驅動，這表明企業和家庭轉向加密貨幣作為對沖貨幣貶低的對沖。

However, if inflation remains relatively under control in 2025, lower interest rates would favor real estate and the stock markets more directly than Bitcoin, as reduced financing costs propel those sectors.

但是，如果通貨膨脹在2025年相對受到控制，那麼較低的利率將有利於房地產，而股票市場比比特幣更直接，因為降低的融資成本推動了這些部門。

US CPI inflation (left) vs. US 2-year Treasury yield (right). Source: TradingView

美國CPI通貨膨脹（左）與美國2年國庫收益率（右）。資料來源：TradingView

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The weakening job market also dampens traders’ demand for risk-on assets, including Bitcoin. In February, the US Labor Department reported job openings nearing a four-year low.

疲軟的就業市場還削弱了交易者對包括比特幣在內的風險資產的需求。 2月，美國勞工部報告的職位空缺接近四年。

Similarly, yields on the US 2-year Treasury fell to a six-month low, with investors accepting a modest 3.88% return for the safety of government-backed instruments. This data suggests a burgeoning choice for risk aversion, which is unfavorable for Bitcoin.

同樣，美國2年的美國財政部的收益率下降到六個月的低點，投資者為政府支持的工具的安全而接受了3.88％的回報。該數據表明，風險規避的選擇是一種新興的選擇，這對比特幣不利。

Ultimately, Bitcoin’s price weakness stems from investors’ unrealistic expectations of BTC acquisitions by the US Treasury, decreasing inflation potential supporting interest rate cuts, and a more risk-off macroeconomic environment as investors turn to short-term government bonds.

最終，比特幣的價格疲軟源於投資者對美國財政部對BTC收購的不切實際的期望，降低了通貨膨脹潛在的支撐降低利率，並且隨著投資者轉向短期政府債券的風險較高的宏觀經濟環境。

While the trade war has had negative effects, Bitcoin was already showing signs of weakness before it began.

儘管貿易戰爭產生了負面影響，但比特幣在開始之前已經顯示出虛弱的跡象。