比特币第四次减半：重塑加密货币动态和价格前景

预计将于 2024 年 4 月 19 日左右即将到来的比特币减半标志着加密货币行业的重大事件。这次减半事件意味着每个开采区块的矿工奖励减少，逐渐减少比特币供应并影响其估值。从历史上看，由于供求规律，减半事件与比特币价格飙升有关。随着比特币采用率的提高，减半机制确保供应动态继续影响资产价值。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: A Paradigm Shift in Cryptocurrency Dynamics

比特币第四次减半：加密货币动态的范式转变

Chicago, March 1, 2023 - The anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event, projected to transpire on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a transformative juncture in the cryptocurrency milieu. This quadrennial occurrence entails a diminution in the compensation bestowed upon miners for each block forged on the Bitcoin blockchain, effectively the block subsidy.

芝加哥，2023 年 3 月 1 日 - 预计第四次比特币减半事件预计将于 2024 年 4 月 19 日左右发生，预示着加密货币环境的变革时刻。这种每四年一次的事件意味着在比特币区块链上锻造的每个区块给予矿工的补偿减少，实际上是区块补贴。

Predetermined to occur approximately every four years, or after every 210,000 blocks, halving events will continue until the complete supply of 21 million bitcoins has been mined, estimated to occur around 2140.

减半事件预定大约每四年发生一次，或者每 210,000 个区块后发生一次，减半事件将持续进行，直到 2100 万个比特币的全部供应被开采完为止，预计发生在 2140 年左右。

Integral to Bitcoin's deflationary approach towards its finite supply, the forthcoming halving will witness a reduction in the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thereby fostering a more constrained supply landscape.

与比特币针对其有限供应的通货紧缩方法相结合，即将到来的减半将使区块补贴从 6.25 BTC 减少到 3.125 BTC，从而形成更加有限的供应格局。

By gradually curtailing the number of bitcoins entering circulation, and provided that Bitcoin adoption continues to expand over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the principles of supply and demand will exert a consistent influence on the asset's valuation.

通过逐步减少进入流通的比特币数量，并且随着时间的推移，比特币的采用率不断扩大，减半机制可确保供需原则对资产估值产生一致的影响。

Impact on Price Dynamics

对价格动态的影响

Historically, each halving event has been associated with a substantial surge in Bitcoin's price in the months preceding and following the occurrence.

从历史上看，每次减半事件都与事件发生前后几个月比特币价格的大幅上涨有关。

Notably, in the 365 calendar days subsequent to the halving of November 28, 2012, Bitcoin prices exhibited an extraordinary 8,447% increase, coinciding with the reduction in block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. The halving of July 9, 2016, resulted in a more modest yet still impressive price increase of 283% in the ensuing year, with the block reward reduced to 12.5 BTC. Similarly, in the 12 months following the halving of May 11, 2020, where the reward was halved to 6.25 BTC per block, Bitcoin's price surged by 527%.

值得注意的是，在 2012 年 11 月 28 日减半后的 365 个日历日里，比特币价格出现了 8,447% 的惊人上涨，同时区块奖励从 50 BTC 减少到 25 BTC。 2016 年 7 月 9 日的减半导致接下来的一年价格上涨 283%，虽然较为温和，但仍然令人印象深刻，区块奖励减少至 12.5 BTC。同样，在 2020 年 5 月 11 日减半后的 12 个月内，奖励减半至每块 6.25 BTC，比特币的价格飙升了 527%。

While the pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, potentially attributable to miners selling off their Bitcoin holdings to secure profits in anticipation of the impending reward reduction, historical patterns suggest the potential for Bitcoin to attain new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving.

虽然减半前的涨势随着时间的推移呈现出减弱的趋势，这可能是由于矿商在预期奖励即将减少的情况下抛售比特币持有量以确保利润，但历史模式表明比特币有可能在未来一段时间达到新的历史高点。 2024 年减半之后。

Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs

比特币现货 ETF 的影响

The Bitcoin landscape has evolved significantly, particularly with the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market.

比特币格局已经发生了巨大变化，特别是随着现货比特币 ETF 的出现和机构资本涌入市场。

These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new Bitcoin supply even before the halving and possessing the capacity to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance.

这些 ETF 产生了大量的日常需求，甚至在减半之前就超过了新比特币供应的速度，并且有能力吸收相当一部分有限的新发行量。

To provide context, at the current rate of block rewards, the Bitcoin network generates approximately 900 new coins per day, equivalent to roughly $54 million worth of Bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60,000). In April 2024, issuance will be halved to 450 coins, or approximately $27 million worth of Bitcoin.

为了提供背景信息，按照当前的区块奖励率，比特币网络每天会生成约 900 个新币，相当于价值约 5400 万美元的比特币（假设每个币的平均价格为 60,000 美元）。 2024 年 4 月，发行量将减半至 450 枚，即价值约 2700 万美元的比特币。

During February, net inflows into the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far exceeding the pace of new supply, even prior to the halving.

2 月份，美国上市现货比特币 ETF 的净流入量平均每天为 2.08 亿美元，远远超过新增供应的速度，甚至在减半之前也是如此。

This pronounced imbalance between burgeoning demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the robust upward pressure on the price.

不断增长的需求与有限的新发行量之间的明显不平衡可能导致了价格的强劲上行压力。

Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market

大型流动性衍生品市场的演变

The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market has introduced a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, it facilitates the management of Bitcoin demand risk, and it provides market participants with actionable price discovery.

一个强大、受监管的衍生品市场的出现，使围绕减半的叙述发生了根本性转变，原因有三个：它使价格风险得以对冲，促进比特币需求风险的管理，并为市场参与者提供可操作的价格发现。

Historically, miners would typically sell their Bitcoin for fiat currency upon mining them, primarily to cover operational costs. This constant selling exerted a dampening effect on price appreciation. However, after a halving event, miners would possess fewer bitcoins to sell, potentially leading to a price increase.

从历史上看，矿工通常会在开采比特币后将其出售为法定货币，主要是为了支付运营成本。这种持续的抛售对价格上涨产生了抑制作用。然而，减半事件发生后，矿工可出售的比特币将减少，可能导致价格上涨。

Mining is now dominated by larger, frequently publicly traded corporations. The advent of a liquid regulated derivatives market enables these firms to hedge and secure future Bitcoin prices to cover expenses without the necessity of selling their coins.

采矿业现在由规模较大、经常上市的公司主导。流动性受监管的衍生品市场的出现使这些公司能够对冲并确保未来的比特币价格来支付费用，而无需出售其代币。

Should this strategy become prevalent, selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on Bitcoin prices going forward.

如果这种策略变得普遍，来自矿商的抛售压力不太可能拖累比特币价格的未来。

A higher number of investors and traders translates to enhanced liquidity and improved price stability for Bitcoin. Notably, Bitcoin's volatility has diminished in recent years, with fewer extreme price movements in both upward and downward directions.

投资者和交易者数量的增加意味着比特币的流动性增强和价格稳定性提高。值得注意的是，近年来比特币的波动性有所减弱，向上和向下的极端价格波动都减少了。

Impact on Miners

对矿工的影响

The impending halving presents both challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics.

即将到来的减半对矿工来说既是挑战也是机遇，矿工行为和行业动态的变化就证明了这一点。

The dwindling Bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hash rates, underscore the urgent need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation.

矿商持有的比特币储备不断减少，加上竞争加剧和算力创历史新高，凸显了运营效率和战略调整的迫切需要。

The number of bitcoins held in wallets associated with miners has declined to its lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners may be capitalizing on Bitcoin's recent price surge by depleting their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities.

与矿工相关的钱包中持有的比特币数量已降至 2021 年 7 月以来的最低水平，这表明矿工可能会利用比特币最近的价格飙升，在减半之前耗尽库存，或利用库存筹集资金来升级机械和挖矿设施。

In previous cycles, the mining landscape consisted of a smaller number of large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and encouraging innovation in sustainable mining practices.

在之前的周期中，采矿业由数量较少的大型矿商组成，公开交易的矿商甚至更少。减半可能会促进矿业公司之间的并购活动，推动行业整合并鼓励可持续采矿实践的创新。

The Rise of Ordinals

序数的兴起

The recent surge in retail demand can be partially attributed to the rise of Bitcoin Ordinals BRC-20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape.

最近零售需求的激增部分归因于比特币 Ordinals BRC-20 代币的崛起，这些代币正在重塑加密货币格局。

These tokens, often likened to "NFTs for Bitcoin," have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners' revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving.

这些代币通常被比作“比特币的 NFT”，有可能推动链上活动并增加交易费用，从而在减半后区块奖励下降的情况下增加矿工的收入流。

Long-Term Outlook

长期展望

Bitcoin's designation as "digital gold" underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amid the scarcity reinforced by halving events.

比特币被称为“数字黄金”，强调了其作为价值储存手段的作用，特别是在减半事件加剧的稀缺性情况下。

Institutional investors who view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value.

将比特币视为通胀对冲工具的机构投资者可能会发现减半对其感知价值的支撑。

Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.

央行政策的转变，例如长期加息和潜在的量化宽松措施，可能会进一步增强比特币作为货币贬值对冲工具的吸引力。

Looking ahead, the implication of Bitcoin's programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. While past having cycles, with the associated price

展望未来，比特币的程序性稀缺性与不断变化的需求动态相交叉的影响仍然令人着迷。虽然过去有周期，但相关价格