比特幣第四次減半：重塑加密貨幣動態與價格前景

預計將於 2024 年 4 月 19 日左右即將到來的比特幣減半標誌著加密貨幣產業的重大事件。這次減半事件意味著每個開採區塊的礦工獎勵減少，逐漸減少比特幣供應並影響其估值。從歷史上看，由於供需規律，減半事件與比特幣價格飆升有關。隨著比特幣採用率的提高，減半機制確保供應動態持續影響資產價值。

Bitcoin's Fourth Halving: A Paradigm Shift in Cryptocurrency Dynamics

比特幣第四次減半：加密貨幣動態的典範轉移

Chicago, March 1, 2023 - The anticipated fourth Bitcoin halving event, projected to transpire on or around April 19, 2024, heralds a transformative juncture in the cryptocurrency milieu. This quadrennial occurrence entails a diminution in the compensation bestowed upon miners for each block forged on the Bitcoin blockchain, effectively the block subsidy.

芝加哥，2023 年 3 月 1 日 - 預計第四次比特幣減半事件預計將於 2024 年 4 月 19 日左右發生，預示著加密貨幣環境的變革時刻。這種每四年一次的事件意味著在比特幣區塊鏈上鍛造的每個區塊給予礦工的補償減少，實際上是區塊補貼。

Predetermined to occur approximately every four years, or after every 210,000 blocks, halving events will continue until the complete supply of 21 million bitcoins has been mined, estimated to occur around 2140.

減半事件預定大約每四年發生一次，或每 21 萬個區塊後發生一次，減半​​事件將持續進行，直到 2,100 萬個比特幣的全部供應被開採完為止，預計發生在 2140 年左右。

Integral to Bitcoin's deflationary approach towards its finite supply, the forthcoming halving will witness a reduction in the block subsidy from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, thereby fostering a more constrained supply landscape.

與比特幣針對其有限供應的通貨緊縮方法相結合，即將到來的減半將使區塊補貼從 6.25 BTC 減少到 3.125 BTC，從而形成更有限的供應格局。

By gradually curtailing the number of bitcoins entering circulation, and provided that Bitcoin adoption continues to expand over time, the halving mechanism ensures that the principles of supply and demand will exert a consistent influence on the asset's valuation.

透過逐步減少進入流通的比特幣數量，隨著時間的推移，比特幣的採用率不斷擴大，減半機制可確保供需原則對資產估值產生一致的影響。

Impact on Price Dynamics

對價格動態的影響

Historically, each halving event has been associated with a substantial surge in Bitcoin's price in the months preceding and following the occurrence.

從歷史上看，每次減半事件都與事件發生前後幾個月比特幣價格的大幅上漲有關。

Notably, in the 365 calendar days subsequent to the halving of November 28, 2012, Bitcoin prices exhibited an extraordinary 8,447% increase, coinciding with the reduction in block reward from 50 BTC to 25 BTC. The halving of July 9, 2016, resulted in a more modest yet still impressive price increase of 283% in the ensuing year, with the block reward reduced to 12.5 BTC. Similarly, in the 12 months following the halving of May 11, 2020, where the reward was halved to 6.25 BTC per block, Bitcoin's price surged by 527%.

值得注意的是，在 2012 年 11 月 28 日減半後的 365 個日曆日里，比特幣價格出現了 8,447% 的驚人上漲，同時區塊獎勵從 50 BTC 減少到 25 BTC。 2016 年 7 月 9 日的減半導致接下來的一年價格上漲 283%，雖然較為溫和，但仍令人印象深刻，區塊獎勵減少至 12.5 BTC。同樣，在 2020 年 5 月 11 日減半後的 12 個月內，獎勵減半至每塊 6.25 BTC，比特幣的價格飆升了 527%。

While the pre-halving rally has shown a diminishing trend over time, potentially attributable to miners selling off their Bitcoin holdings to secure profits in anticipation of the impending reward reduction, historical patterns suggest the potential for Bitcoin to attain new all-time highs in the aftermath of the 2024 halving.

雖然減半前的漲勢隨著時間的推移呈現減弱的趨勢，這可能是由於礦商在預期獎勵即將減少的情況下拋售比特幣持有量以確保利潤，但歷史模式表明比特幣有可能在未來一段時間達到新的歷史高點。2024 年減半後。

Impact of Bitcoin Spot ETFs

比特幣現貨 ETF 的影響

The Bitcoin landscape has evolved significantly, particularly with the advent of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the influx of institutional capital into the market.

比特幣格局已經發生了巨大變化，特別是隨著現貨比特幣 ETF 的出現和機構資本湧入市場。

These ETFs have generated substantial daily demand, surpassing the pace of new Bitcoin supply even before the halving and possessing the capacity to absorb a considerable portion of the limited new issuance.

這些 ETF 產生了大量的日常需求，甚至在減半之前就超過了新比特幣供應的速度，並且有能力吸收相當一部分有限的新發行量。

To provide context, at the current rate of block rewards, the Bitcoin network generates approximately 900 new coins per day, equivalent to roughly $54 million worth of Bitcoin (assuming an average price per coin of $60,000). In April 2024, issuance will be halved to 450 coins, or approximately $27 million worth of Bitcoin.

為了提供背景信息，按照當前的區塊獎勵率，比特幣網路每天產生約 900 個新幣，相當於價值約 5400 萬美元的比特幣（假設每個幣的平均價格為 60,000 美元）。 2024 年 4 月，發行量將減半至 450 枚，即價值約 2,700 萬美元的比特幣。

During February, net inflows into the US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs averaged $208 million per day, far exceeding the pace of new supply, even prior to the halving.

2 月份，美國上市現貨比特幣 ETF 的淨流入量平均每天為 2.08 億美元，遠遠超過新增供應的速度，甚至在減半之前也是如此。

This pronounced imbalance between burgeoning demand and limited new issuance has likely contributed to the robust upward pressure on the price.

不斷增長的需求與有限的新發行量之間的明顯不平衡可能導致了價格的強勁上行壓力。

Evolution of a Large Liquid Derivatives Market

大型流動性衍生性商品市場的演變

The emergence of a robust, regulated derivatives market has introduced a fundamental shift in the narrative surrounding the halving for three key reasons: it enables price risks to be hedged, it facilitates the management of Bitcoin demand risk, and it provides market participants with actionable price discovery.

一個強大、受監管的衍生性商品市場的出現，使圍繞減半的敘述發生了根本性轉變，原因有三：它使價格風險得以對沖，促進比特幣需求風險的管理，並為市場參與者提供可操作的價格發現。

Historically, miners would typically sell their Bitcoin for fiat currency upon mining them, primarily to cover operational costs. This constant selling exerted a dampening effect on price appreciation. However, after a halving event, miners would possess fewer bitcoins to sell, potentially leading to a price increase.

從歷史上看，礦工通常會在開採比特幣後將其出售為法定貨幣，主要是為了支付營運成本。這種持續的拋售對價格上漲產生了抑製作用。然而，減半事件發生後，礦工可出售的比特幣將減少，可能導致價格上漲。

Mining is now dominated by larger, frequently publicly traded corporations. The advent of a liquid regulated derivatives market enables these firms to hedge and secure future Bitcoin prices to cover expenses without the necessity of selling their coins.

採礦業現在由規模較大、經常上市的公司主導。流動性受監管的衍生性商品市場的出現使這些公司能夠對沖並確保未來的比特幣價格來支付費用，而無需出售其代幣。

Should this strategy become prevalent, selling pressure from miners is less likely to act as a drag on Bitcoin prices going forward.

如果這種策略變得普遍，來自礦商的拋售壓力不太可能拖累比特幣價格的未來。

A higher number of investors and traders translates to enhanced liquidity and improved price stability for Bitcoin. Notably, Bitcoin's volatility has diminished in recent years, with fewer extreme price movements in both upward and downward directions.

投資者和交易者數量的增加意味著比特幣的流動性增強和價格穩定性提高。值得注意的是，近年來比特幣的波動性減弱，向上和向下的極端價格波動都減少了。

Impact on Miners

對礦工的影響

The impending halving presents both challenges and opportunities for miners, as evidenced by shifts in miner behavior and industry dynamics.

即將到來的減半對礦工來說既是挑戰也是機遇，礦工行為和產業動態的變化證明了這一點。

The dwindling Bitcoin reserves held by miners, coupled with heightened competition and record high hash rates, underscore the urgent need for operational efficiency and strategic adaptation.

礦商持有的比特幣儲備不斷減少，加上競爭加劇和算力創歷史新高，凸顯了營運效率和策略調整的迫切需求。

The number of bitcoins held in wallets associated with miners has declined to its lowest level since July 2021, suggesting that miners may be capitalizing on Bitcoin's recent price surge by depleting their inventory ahead of the halving or leveraging them to raise capital for upgrading machinery and mining facilities.

與礦工相關的錢包中持有的比特幣數量已降至2021 年7 月以來的最低水平，這表明礦工可能會利用比特幣最近的價格飆升，在減半之前耗盡庫存，或利用庫存籌集資金來升級機械和挖礦設施。

In previous cycles, the mining landscape consisted of a smaller number of large-scale miners and even fewer publicly traded ones. The halving may catalyze merger and acquisition activities among mining firms, driving industry consolidation and encouraging innovation in sustainable mining practices.

在先前的周期中，採礦業由數量較少的大型礦商組成，公開交易的礦商甚至更少。減半可能會促進礦業公司之間的併購活動，推動產業整合並鼓勵永續採礦實踐的創新。

The Rise of Ordinals

序數的興起

The recent surge in retail demand can be partially attributed to the rise of Bitcoin Ordinals BRC-20 tokens, which are reshaping the crypto landscape.

最近零售需求的激增部分歸因於比特幣 Ordinals BRC-20 代幣的崛起，這些代幣正在重塑加密貨幣格局。

These tokens, often likened to "NFTs for Bitcoin," have the potential to drive on-chain activity and increase transaction fees, thereby bolstering miners' revenue streams amidst declining block rewards post-halving.

這些代幣通常被比作“比特幣的 NFT”，有可能推動鏈上活動並增加交易費用，從而在減半後區塊獎勵下降的情況下增加礦工的收入流。

Long-Term Outlook

長期展望

Bitcoin's designation as "digital gold" underscores its role as a store of value, particularly amid the scarcity reinforced by halving events.

比特幣被稱為“數位黃金”，強調了其作為價值儲存手段的作用，特別是在減半事件加劇的稀缺性情況下。

Institutional investors who view Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation may find the halving supportive of its perceived value.

將比特幣視為通膨對沖工具的機構投資者可能會發現減半對其感知價值的支撐。

Shifts in central bank policies, such as prolonged higher interest rates and potential quantitative easing measures, could further bolster Bitcoin's appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.

央行政策的轉變，例如長期升息和潛在的量化寬鬆措施，可能會進一步增強比特幣作為貨幣貶值對沖工具的吸引力。

Looking ahead, the implication of Bitcoin's programmed scarcity intersecting with evolving demand dynamics remains intriguing. While past having cycles, with the associated price

展望未來，比特幣的程序性稀缺性與不斷變化的需求動態相交叉的影響仍然令人著迷。雖然過去有周期，但相關價格