比特币因美国经济数据而下跌

当比特币似乎正向 75,000 美元迈进时，最新的美国经济数据突然打断了这一上涨趋势。面对个人消费不变

As Bitcoin appeared poised to ascend towards the $75,000 level, the latest U.S. economic data abruptly intervened to halt this trajectory. Faced with stagnant personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation and significant underlying inflation, hopes for a monetary easing by the Federal Reserve are dwindling, plunging investors into doubt. This tense macroeconomic context, coupled with the cautious reactions of institutional actors, exacerbates the pressure on long positions and amplifies price volatility.

当比特币似乎准备升至 75,000 美元水平时，最新的美国经济数据突然介入，阻止了这一趋势。面对个人消费支出（PCE）通胀停滞和显着的潜在通胀，美联储放松货币政策的希望正在减弱，令投资者陷入怀疑。这种紧张的宏观经济环境，加上机构参与者的谨慎反应，加剧了多头头寸的压力，并放大了价格波动。

Bitcoin Declines in Response to U.S. Economic Data

比特币因美国经济数据而下跌

While the Bitcoin price hovered around $72,000 on October 31, 2024, the latest U.S. data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) failed to revitalize the market, leaving it in a retreating dynamic. The September report shows that personal consumption expenditures inflation, the Fed’s preferred indicator for tracking inflation, fell to 2.1 %, in line with expectations. In contrast, core inflation (Core PCE) remained unchanged at 2.7 %, slightly above the 2.6 % forecast.

尽管2024年10月31日比特币价格徘徊在72,000美元左右，但美国最新的个人消费支出（PCE）数据未能重振市场，使其陷入回落动态。 9月报告显示，美联储跟踪通胀的首选指标个人消费支出通胀率降至2.1%，符合预期。相比之下，核心通胀（Core PCE）维持在 2.7% 不变，略高于预测的 2.6%。

It is worth noting that it has now been six months since core inflation has not declined, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the Fed’s tightening policy. Such a situation has prompted the trading resource The Kobeissi Letter to react. “The Fed rate cut has once again been delayed,” it stated on X. Thus, the market had hoped for a sign of easing from the Fed’s policies, but this expectation was thwarted by persistently high indicators. The PCE rate, closely watched by investors for its implications on the Fed’s decisions, has only reinforced the idea of strict monetary policy in the immediate term.

值得注意的是，核心通胀至今已有六个月未下降，引发人们对美联储紧缩政策有效性的担忧。这样的情况促使交易资源The Koheissi Letter做出反应。其于X日表示，“美联储降息再次被推迟”。因此，市场原本希望美联储政策有放松的迹象，但持续高位的指标却挫伤了这一预期。 PCE利率因其对美联储决策的影响而受到投资者密切关注，它只会强化短期内严格货币政策的想法。

Meanwhile, the probability of a pause in rate hikes at the Fed’s meeting on November 7 has consolidated to 96 %, leaving little room for adjustments favorable to risk assets like Bitcoin. This context has put the crypto market in a waiting mode, with increasing pressure on long positions. For investors, it is the U.S. jobs report on November 1 that could bring the next wave of volatility for BTC, reminding us that macroeconomic risks still influence the asset’s trajectory.

与此同时，美联储11月7日会议暂停加息的可能性已巩固至96%，对比特币等风险资产有利的调整空间已所剩无几。这种背景使加密货币市场处于等待模式，多头头寸的压力越来越大。对于投资者来说，11月1日的美国就业报告可能会给比特币带来下一波波动，提醒我们宏观经济风险仍然影响着该资产的走势。

The Market Actors’ Reaction and Implications for Bitcoin

市场参与者的反应和对比特币的影响

In light of this discouraging economic situation, the “whales” and other institutional investors have quickly adjusted their positions. Market order data shows a marked decrease in the exposure of large BTC holders, indicating increased caution in the face of economic uncertainties. Over $500 million in open interest has already disappeared with only a 2 % price drop. This reduction in open interest, combined with whale behaviors, reflects a loss of confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to sustainably surpass the $70,000 threshold in this context.

鉴于经济形势令人沮丧，“鲸鱼”和其他机构投资者迅速调整了仓位。市场订单数据显示，大型比特币持有者的风险敞口明显下降，表明面对经济不确定性的谨慎态度有所增强。超过 5 亿美元的未平仓合约已经消失，价格仅下跌 2%。未平仓合约的减少，加上鲸鱼的行为，反映出人们对比特币在这种情况下持续突破 70,000 美元门槛的能力失去了信心。

With the monthly close approaching, Bitcoin is nearing its key resistance level, having risen over 13 % in October. However, volatility seems to be intensifying in the coming days, making price movements difficult to predict. The influence of the Fed, combined with the cautious behaviors of major players, hardly suggests an immediate surge.

随着月度收盘的临近，比特币已接近其关键阻力位，10 月份已上涨超过 13%。然而，未来几天波动似乎会加剧，导致价格走势难以预测。美联储的影响力，加上主要参与者的谨慎行为，很难表明经济会立即飙升。

In summary, macroeconomic pressure and the heightened caution of influential actors create a conducive environment for increasing volatility. Upcoming events, particularly economic releases and Fed decisions, will be crucial to assess whether Bitcoin can truly reach or even sustainably maintain the $70,000 mark.

总之，宏观经济压力和有影响力的参与者的高度谨慎为加剧波动创造了有利的环境。即将发生的事件，特别是经济数据发布和美联储决定，对于评估比特币是否能够真正达到甚至可持续维持 70,000 美元大关至关重要。