比特幣因美國經濟數據而下跌

當比特幣似乎正朝著 75,000 美元邁進時，最新的美國經濟數據突然打斷了這一上漲趨勢。面對個人消費不變

As Bitcoin appeared poised to ascend towards the $75,000 level, the latest U.S. economic data abruptly intervened to halt this trajectory. Faced with stagnant personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation and significant underlying inflation, hopes for a monetary easing by the Federal Reserve are dwindling, plunging investors into doubt. This tense macroeconomic context, coupled with the cautious reactions of institutional actors, exacerbates the pressure on long positions and amplifies price volatility.

當比特幣似乎準備升至 75,000 美元水平時，最新的美國經濟數據突然介入，阻止了這一趨勢。面對個人消費支出（PCE）通膨停滯和顯著的潛在通膨，聯準會放鬆貨幣政策的希望正在減弱，令投資者陷入懷疑。這種緊張的宏觀經濟環境，加上機構參與者的謹慎反應，加劇了多頭部位的壓力，並放大了價格波動。

Bitcoin Declines in Response to U.S. Economic Data

比特幣因美國經濟數據而下跌

While the Bitcoin price hovered around $72,000 on October 31, 2024, the latest U.S. data on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) failed to revitalize the market, leaving it in a retreating dynamic. The September report shows that personal consumption expenditures inflation, the Fed’s preferred indicator for tracking inflation, fell to 2.1 %, in line with expectations. In contrast, core inflation (Core PCE) remained unchanged at 2.7 %, slightly above the 2.6 % forecast.

儘管2024年10月31日比特幣價格徘徊在72,000美元左右，但美國最新的個人消費支出（PCE）數據未能重振市場，使其陷入回落動態。 9月報告顯示，聯準會追蹤通膨的首選指標個人消費支出通膨率降至2.1%，符合預期。相較之下，核心通膨（Core PCE）維持在 2.7% 不變，略高於預測的 2.6%。

It is worth noting that it has now been six months since core inflation has not declined, raising concerns about the effectiveness of the Fed’s tightening policy. Such a situation has prompted the trading resource The Kobeissi Letter to react. “The Fed rate cut has once again been delayed,” it stated on X. Thus, the market had hoped for a sign of easing from the Fed’s policies, but this expectation was thwarted by persistently high indicators. The PCE rate, closely watched by investors for its implications on the Fed’s decisions, has only reinforced the idea of strict monetary policy in the immediate term.

值得注意的是，核心通膨至今已有六個月未下降，引發人們對聯準會緊縮政策有效性的擔憂。這樣的情況促使交易資源The Koheissi Letter做出反應。其於X日表示，「聯準會降息再次被延後」。 PCE利率因其對聯準會決策的影響而受到投資者密切關注，它只會強化短期內嚴格貨幣政策的想法。

Meanwhile, the probability of a pause in rate hikes at the Fed’s meeting on November 7 has consolidated to 96 %, leaving little room for adjustments favorable to risk assets like Bitcoin. This context has put the crypto market in a waiting mode, with increasing pressure on long positions. For investors, it is the U.S. jobs report on November 1 that could bring the next wave of volatility for BTC, reminding us that macroeconomic risks still influence the asset’s trajectory.

同時，聯準會11月7日會議暫停升息的可能性已鞏固至96%，對比特幣等風險資產有利的調整空間已所剩無幾。這種背景使加密貨幣市場處於等待模式，多頭部位的壓力越來越大。對投資人來說，11月1日的美國就業報告可能會為比特幣帶來下一波波動，提醒我們宏觀經濟風險仍影響著該資產的走勢。

The Market Actors’ Reaction and Implications for Bitcoin

市場參與者的反應和對比特幣的影響

In light of this discouraging economic situation, the “whales” and other institutional investors have quickly adjusted their positions. Market order data shows a marked decrease in the exposure of large BTC holders, indicating increased caution in the face of economic uncertainties. Over $500 million in open interest has already disappeared with only a 2 % price drop. This reduction in open interest, combined with whale behaviors, reflects a loss of confidence in Bitcoin’s ability to sustainably surpass the $70,000 threshold in this context.

鑑於經濟形勢令人沮喪，「鯨魚」和其他機構投資者迅速調整了部位。市場訂單數據顯示，大型比特幣持有者的風險敞口明顯下降，顯示面對經濟不確定性的謹慎態度增強。超過 5 億美元的未平倉合約已經消失，價格僅下跌 2%。未平倉合約的減少，加上鯨魚的行為，反映出人們對比特幣在這種情況下持續突破 7 萬美元門檻的能力失去了信心。

With the monthly close approaching, Bitcoin is nearing its key resistance level, having risen over 13 % in October. However, volatility seems to be intensifying in the coming days, making price movements difficult to predict. The influence of the Fed, combined with the cautious behaviors of major players, hardly suggests an immediate surge.

隨著月度收盤的臨近，比特幣已接近其關鍵阻力位，10 月已上漲超過 13%。然而，未來幾天波動似乎會加劇，導致價格走勢難以預測。聯準會的影響力，加上主要參與者的謹慎行為，很難顯示經濟會立即飆升。

In summary, macroeconomic pressure and the heightened caution of influential actors create a conducive environment for increasing volatility. Upcoming events, particularly economic releases and Fed decisions, will be crucial to assess whether Bitcoin can truly reach or even sustainably maintain the $70,000 mark.

總之，宏觀經濟壓力和有影響力的參與者的高度謹慎為加劇波動創造了有利的環境。即將發生的事件，特別是經濟數據發布和聯準會決定，對於評估比特幣是否能夠真正達到甚至可持續維持 7 萬美元大關至關重要。