由于特朗普政府新宣布的关税政策被消化，比特币（加密：BTC）在4月3日下跌了5.4％

由于特朗普政府新宣布的关税政策被市场消化，比特币（加密：BTC）在4月3日下跌了5.4％。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) fell by 5.4% on Monday as the Trump administration's newly announced tariff policies were digested by the market. Now, with economic uncertainty sky-high and investors looking for havens from the turmoil, it's an open question whether the tariffs might deal severe harm to the cryptocurrency sector -- or if crypto might just end up getting dragged down along with everything else.

周一，由于特朗普政府新宣布的关税政策被市场消化，比特币（加密：BTC）下跌了5.4％。现在，随着经济不确定性高高，投资者正在寻找动荡的避风港，这是一个悬而未决的问题，关税是否可能对加密货币行业造成严重伤害 - 或者是否可能最终与其他所有事情一起被拖延。

But will Bitcoin fare better than its peers as a result of its highly distributed and decentralized nature? Let's look at its exposure to the emerging set of risks and figure it out.

但是，由于其高度分布和分散的性质，比特币的表现会比同龄人更好吗？让我们看一下它暴露于新兴风险集中并弄清楚它。

There isn't a direct risk here

这里没有直接风险

The first thing that investors need to realize -- if they don't already -- is that Bitcoin is not something that's commonly used as a medium for processing international trade payments. There are a few exceptions to that generality, largely related to dodgy attempts at avoiding sanctions or other illegal purposes. But overall, it's not reasonable to expect Bitcoin to become less used if trade is damaged by the possible future implementation of the Trump administration's tariffs on imports. So if there is a detrimental effect on demand for the coin, it won't come from businesses looking to avoid paying tariffs.

投资者需要意识到的第一件事（如果还没有）是，比特币不是通常用作处理国际贸易付款的媒介的东西。这种普遍性有一些例外，这与避免制裁或其他非法目的的狡猾尝试有关。但是总的来说，如果未来可能对特朗普政府对进口的关税造成的贸易损害，则期望比特币会减少使用。因此，如果对硬币的需求有不利影响，它不会来自希望避免支付关税的企业。

Another thing worth mentioning, even though it's obvious, is that the tariffs are not levied on Bitcoin, but rather on goods from countries. Bitcoins are fungible. That means a Bitcoin mined in China is indistinguishable from a Bitcoin mined in the U.S. The transfer of Bitcoin from a wallet holder based in one country to a wallet holder in another country is not something that's being taxed. And it might be impossible to do so, from a technical standpoint, anyway.

值得一提的另一件事是显而易见的是，关税不是对比特币征收的，而是对来自国家的商品的征收。比特币是可替代的。这意味着在中国开采的比特币与在美国开采的比特币没有区别，将比特币从一个国家的钱包持有人转移到一个国家的钱包持有人到另一个国家的钱包持有人，这不是征税。无论如何，从技术角度来看，可能不可能这样做。

However, there is a high chance that Bitcoin mining hardware produced outside the U.S. will become dramatically more expensive to import if the tariffs are implemented as proposed. That means mining companies in the U.S. will suffer. But it does not mean that Bitcoin's price will suffer.

但是，如果按照提出的提议实施了关税，则很有可能会在美国以外生产的比特币采矿硬件变得昂贵。这意味着美国的矿业公司将受苦。但这并不意味着比特币的价格会受到影响。

If there is a slowdown in new coin production, Bitcoin prices probably will rise rather than drop. Plus, miners in other countries will still be able to buy the hardware at the same price as they did before any tariffs were levied, and they will. They might even get access to slightly cheaper hardware if demand for that hardware in the U.S. takes a hit due to prices being too high to turn a profit on mining.

如果新硬币产量的放缓，比特币价格可能会上涨而不是下降。另外，其他国家 /地区的矿工仍然能够以与征收任何关税之前相同的价格购买硬件，他们会的。如果在美国对该硬件的需求太高而无法在采矿时转移利润，他们甚至可能会访问略便宜的硬件。

The indirect effects could be substantial, so watch out

间接影响可能很大，所以请注意

So Bitcoin is not directly highly exposed to risks stemming from the new tariffs, assuming they are actually levied. Unfortunately for holders, it is highly exposed to indirect risks, like those originating from a sharply contracting global or domestic economy.

因此，假设实际上是征收新的关税，比特币并没有直接暴露于新的关税中。不幸的是，对于持有人来说，它高度暴露于间接风险，例如起源于全球或国内经济急剧的风险。

Some consider Bitcoin to be digital gold in the sense that it has characteristics of a safe asset, even though those characteristics are more theoretical than empirically proven by its performance during periods of turbulence like now. For most investors, it's an asset that's not as reliable as an investment in a major company's stock, or in an index fund. That's true even if the perception of those investors has shifted a lot toward viewing the coin as a safer asset within its class in recent years.

有些人认为比特币是数字黄金，因为它具有安全资产的特征，尽管这些特征比现在像现在这样的湍流期间的绩效证明了理论上的特征比经验证明了这一点。对于大多数投资者而言，这是一种不如对主要公司股票或指数基金投资的资产。即使这些投资者的看法已经改变了近年来将硬币视为更安全的资产，也是如此。

The point here is that when the market or the economy tumble, people jump to get rid of their risk assets, as they tend to fall the most. Bitcoin will, for many investors, be at the top of the list of assets to dump when times look like they will be getting tough. If there is actually an economic recession caused by the Trump administration's new tariffs, Bitcoin will also be one of the assets that investors liquidate to pay the bills if they're unemployed. And there won't be as much buying pressure from anyone if daily living expenses rise sharply and constrain investment spending, which is a direct and expected consequence of the new tariffs.

这里的一点是，当市场或经济跌倒时，人们跳跃以摆脱自己的风险资产，因为他们往往会跌倒最多。对于许多投资者而言，比特币将在时代变得越来越艰难的情况下排在最重要的资产清单中。如果实际上是由特朗普政府的新关税造成的经济衰退，那么比特币也将是投资者在失业时清算支付账单的资产之一。如果日常生活支出急剧上升并限制投资支出，这是新关税的直接和预期后果，那么任何人的购买压力都不会太大。

Perhaps the biggest indirect risk of all is that Bitcoin's price will simply be pulled down along with major indexes because of the coin's increasing level of integration with the traditional financial system. In this context, it would be along for the unpleasant ride due to awful market sentiment based on real concerns about economic disruption caused by the tariffs. If this risk occurs in isolation, without any real damage to the U.S. economy, it would be a smart opportunity to buy the coin aggressively -- but don't bet on it. The more likely case is that there will be concrete problems ahead that will take longer to dissipate than merely fearful sentiment would.

也许最大的间接风险是，由于硬币与传统金融体系的集成水平不断提高，比特币的价格将与主要指数一起下降。在这种情况下，由于对关税造成的经济中断的真正担忧，这将是不愉快的骑行。如果这种风险孤立地发生，而没有对美国经济的任何真正损害，那将是一个明智的机会，可以积极购买硬币 - 但不要押注。更有可能的情况是，即将出现的具体问题将比仅仅恐惧的情绪所需的时间更长。

Despite all of the above, Bitcoin is still worth buying and holding. Its scarcity is not going to ease as a result of tariffs or any recession caused by tariffs.

尽管有上述所有内容，但比特币仍然值得购买和持有。由于关税或关税造成的任何衰退，它的稀缺性不会缓解。

Just be aware that you will need to hold it for a long time, potentially years, to erase any losses that might happen as a result of the tariffs. Trade policies come and go, and the investors who can hold on to their coins for long enough to survive until the winds change will probably be rewarded, even if it will be quite uncomfortable in

请注意，您将需要长时间（可能是几年）持有它，以消除由于关税而可能造成的任何损失。贸易政策来来去去，可以坚持自己的硬币足够长的投资者生存，直到换风可能会得到奖励，即使它会非常不舒服