由於特朗普政府新宣布的關稅政策被消化，比特幣（加密：BTC）在4月3日下跌了5.4％

由於特朗普政府新宣布的關稅政策被市場消化，比特幣（加密：BTC）在4月3日下跌了5.4％。

Bitcoin (CRYPTO:BTC) fell by 5.4% on Monday as the Trump administration's newly announced tariff policies were digested by the market. Now, with economic uncertainty sky-high and investors looking for havens from the turmoil, it's an open question whether the tariffs might deal severe harm to the cryptocurrency sector -- or if crypto might just end up getting dragged down along with everything else.

週一，由於特朗普政府新宣布的關稅政策被市場消化，比特幣（加密：BTC）下跌了5.4％。現在，隨著經濟不確定性高高，投資者正在尋找動蕩的避風港，這是一個懸而未決的問題，關稅是否可能對加密貨幣行業造成嚴重傷害 - 或者是否可能最終與其他所有事情一起被拖延。

But will Bitcoin fare better than its peers as a result of its highly distributed and decentralized nature? Let's look at its exposure to the emerging set of risks and figure it out.

但是，由於其高度分佈和分散的性質，比特幣的表現會比同齡人更好嗎？讓我們看一下它暴露於新興風險集中並弄清楚它。

There isn't a direct risk here

這裡沒有直接風險

The first thing that investors need to realize -- if they don't already -- is that Bitcoin is not something that's commonly used as a medium for processing international trade payments. There are a few exceptions to that generality, largely related to dodgy attempts at avoiding sanctions or other illegal purposes. But overall, it's not reasonable to expect Bitcoin to become less used if trade is damaged by the possible future implementation of the Trump administration's tariffs on imports. So if there is a detrimental effect on demand for the coin, it won't come from businesses looking to avoid paying tariffs.

投資者需要意識到的第一件事（如果還沒有）是，比特幣不是通常用作處理國際貿易付款的媒介的東西。這種普遍性有一些例外，這與避免制裁或其他非法目的的狡猾嘗試有關。但是總的來說，如果未來可能對特朗普政府對進口的關稅造成的貿易損害，則期望比特幣會減少使用。因此，如果對硬幣的需求有不利影響，它不會來自希望避免支付關稅的企業。

Another thing worth mentioning, even though it's obvious, is that the tariffs are not levied on Bitcoin, but rather on goods from countries. Bitcoins are fungible. That means a Bitcoin mined in China is indistinguishable from a Bitcoin mined in the U.S. The transfer of Bitcoin from a wallet holder based in one country to a wallet holder in another country is not something that's being taxed. And it might be impossible to do so, from a technical standpoint, anyway.

值得一提的另一件事是顯而易見的是，關稅不是對比特幣徵收的，而是對來自國家的商品的徵收。比特幣是可替代的。這意味著在中國開采的比特幣與在美國開采的比特幣沒有區別，將比特幣從一個國家的錢包持有人轉移到一個國家的錢包持有人到另一個國家的錢包持有人，這不是徵稅。無論如何，從技術角度來看，可能不可能這樣做。

However, there is a high chance that Bitcoin mining hardware produced outside the U.S. will become dramatically more expensive to import if the tariffs are implemented as proposed. That means mining companies in the U.S. will suffer. But it does not mean that Bitcoin's price will suffer.

但是，如果按照提出的提議實施了關稅，則很有可能會在美國以外生產的比特幣採礦硬件變得昂貴。這意味著美國的礦業公司將受苦。但這並不意味著比特幣的價格會受到影響。

If there is a slowdown in new coin production, Bitcoin prices probably will rise rather than drop. Plus, miners in other countries will still be able to buy the hardware at the same price as they did before any tariffs were levied, and they will. They might even get access to slightly cheaper hardware if demand for that hardware in the U.S. takes a hit due to prices being too high to turn a profit on mining.

如果新硬幣產量的放緩，比特幣價格可能會上漲而不是下降。另外，其他國家 /地區的礦工仍然能夠以與徵收任何關稅之前相同的價格購買硬件，他們會的。如果在美國對該硬件的需求太高而無法在採礦時轉移利潤，他們甚至可能會訪問略便宜的硬件。

The indirect effects could be substantial, so watch out

間接影響可能很大，所以請注意

So Bitcoin is not directly highly exposed to risks stemming from the new tariffs, assuming they are actually levied. Unfortunately for holders, it is highly exposed to indirect risks, like those originating from a sharply contracting global or domestic economy.

因此，假設實際上是徵收新的關稅，比特幣並沒有直接暴露於新的關稅中。不幸的是，對於持有人來說，它高度暴露於間接風險，例如起源於全球或國內經濟急劇的風險。

Some consider Bitcoin to be digital gold in the sense that it has characteristics of a safe asset, even though those characteristics are more theoretical than empirically proven by its performance during periods of turbulence like now. For most investors, it's an asset that's not as reliable as an investment in a major company's stock, or in an index fund. That's true even if the perception of those investors has shifted a lot toward viewing the coin as a safer asset within its class in recent years.

有些人認為比特幣是數字黃金，因為它具有安全資產的特徵，儘管這些特徵比現在像現在這樣的湍流期間的績效證明了理論上的特徵比經驗證明了這一點。對於大多數投資者而言，這是一種不如對主要公司股票或指數基金投資的資產。即使這些投資者的看法已經改變了近年來將硬幣視為更安全的資產，也是如此。

The point here is that when the market or the economy tumble, people jump to get rid of their risk assets, as they tend to fall the most. Bitcoin will, for many investors, be at the top of the list of assets to dump when times look like they will be getting tough. If there is actually an economic recession caused by the Trump administration's new tariffs, Bitcoin will also be one of the assets that investors liquidate to pay the bills if they're unemployed. And there won't be as much buying pressure from anyone if daily living expenses rise sharply and constrain investment spending, which is a direct and expected consequence of the new tariffs.

這裡的一點是，當市場或經濟跌倒時，人們跳躍以擺脫自己的風險資產，因為他們往往會跌倒最多。對於許多投資者而言，比特幣將在時代變得越來越艱難的情況下排在最重要的資產清單中。如果實際上是由特朗普政府的新關稅造成的經濟衰退，那麼比特幣也將是投資者在失業時清算支付賬單的資產之一。如果日常生活支出急劇上升並限制投資支出，這是新關稅的直接和預期後果，那麼任何人的購買壓力都不會太大。

Perhaps the biggest indirect risk of all is that Bitcoin's price will simply be pulled down along with major indexes because of the coin's increasing level of integration with the traditional financial system. In this context, it would be along for the unpleasant ride due to awful market sentiment based on real concerns about economic disruption caused by the tariffs. If this risk occurs in isolation, without any real damage to the U.S. economy, it would be a smart opportunity to buy the coin aggressively -- but don't bet on it. The more likely case is that there will be concrete problems ahead that will take longer to dissipate than merely fearful sentiment would.

也許最大的間接風險是，由於硬幣與傳統金融體系的集成水平不斷提高，比特幣的價格將與主要指數一起下降。在這種情況下，由於對關稅造成的經濟中斷的真正擔憂，這將是不愉快的騎行。如果這種風險孤立地發生，而沒有對美國經濟的任何真正損害，那將是一個明智的機會，可以積極購買硬幣 - 但不要押注。更有可能的情況是，即將出現的具體問題將比僅僅恐懼的情緒所需的時間更長。

Despite all of the above, Bitcoin is still worth buying and holding. Its scarcity is not going to ease as a result of tariffs or any recession caused by tariffs.

儘管有上述所有內容，但比特幣仍然值得購買和持有。由於關稅或關稅造成的任何衰退，它的稀缺性不會緩解。

Just be aware that you will need to hold it for a long time, potentially years, to erase any losses that might happen as a result of the tariffs. Trade policies come and go, and the investors who can hold on to their coins for long enough to survive until the winds change will probably be rewarded, even if it will be quite uncomfortable in

請注意，您將需要長時間（可能是幾年）持有它，以消除由於關稅而可能造成的任何損失。貿易政策來來去去，可以堅持自己的硬幣足夠長的投資者生存，直到換風可能會得到獎勵，即使它會非常不舒服