美国债务上限危机导致国债发行暂停，比特币回调迫在眉睫

美国债务上限目前定为 36 万亿美元，使财政部陷入预算僵局。为此，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦宣布从 1 月 21 日起暂停发债。

The US debt has surpassed a historic threshold, reaching $36 trillion and prompting the Treasury to temporarily halt debt issuance. This measure, taken to avert a crisis, has sparked concerns in the financial markets. Among the assets likely to be affected is bitcoin, which, despite being frequently viewed as a safe haven against economic uncertainties, could experience a notable correction. However, this situation extends beyond mere market fluctuations, reflecting the fragilities of a global economic system seeking balance, where institutional responses will be critical for the future of cryptos.

美国债务已突破历史门槛，达到36万亿美元，促使财政部暂时停止发债。这一旨在避免危机的措施引发了金融市场的担忧。可能受到影响的资产之一是比特币，尽管比特币经常被视为应对经济不确定性的避风港，但它可能会经历显着的调整。然而，这种情况不仅仅是市场波动，反映出寻求平衡的全球经济体系的脆弱性，其中机构反应对于加密货币的未来至关重要。

The immediate impact of the debt ceiling on bitcoin

债务上限对比特币的直接影响

The US debt ceiling, currently set at $36 trillion, has placed the Treasury in a difficult budgetary position. To address this, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, announced a suspension of debt issuance starting January 21. This measure, which will extend until March 14, risks significantly reducing global liquidity. Such a contraction, often associated with an increase in volatility, could affect financial assets, including bitcoin.

美国债务上限目前定为36万亿美元，使财政部的预算陷入困境。为了解决这个问题，财政部长珍妮特·耶伦宣布从 1 月 21 日起暂停发债。这一措施将延长至 3 月 14 日，可能会大幅减少全球流动性。这种收缩通常与波动性增加有关，可能会影响包括比特币在内的金融资产。

Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, anticipates that this liquidity drop will coincide with a temporary peak for bitcoin at $110,000 in January. Subsequently, the asset could undergo a correction and fall below $70,000. Indeed, “global liquidity cycles dictate bitcoin’s behavior, and we anticipate short-term tensions,” he declared in an analysis published on X (formerly Twitter) on November 29, 2024.

Global Macro Investor 的创始人 Raoul Pal 预计，这种流动性下降将与 1 月份比特币暂时达到 110,000 美元的峰值同时发生。随后，该资产可能会经历调整并跌破 70,000 美元。事实上，“全球流动性周期决定了比特币的行为，我们预计会出现短期紧张局势，”他在 2024 年 11 月 29 日在 X（前身为 Twitter）上发布的分析中宣称。

These concerns are amplified by signals emanating from traditional financial markets. The GMI global liquidity index, regarded as a benchmark indicator, points to imminent bearish pressure. Although bitcoin is often perceived as a safe haven against economic uncertainties, it remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global liquidity. This demonstrates that, despite its independence from traditional financial institutions, its evolution is still deeply linked to global macroeconomic dynamics.

传统金融市场发出的信号放大了这些担忧。被视为基准指标的GMI全球流动性指数表明看跌压力迫在眉睫。尽管比特币通常被视为应对经济不确定性的避风港，但它仍然容易受到全球流动性波动的影响。这表明，尽管其独立于传统金融机构，但其演变仍与全球宏观经济动态密切相关。

Divergences in analysis and long-term perspectives

分析和长期观点存在分歧

While some experts fear a period of turbulence for bitcoin, others see this crisis as an opportunity to strengthen its role as a hedge against monetary instability. Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of Redstone, emphasized that “during previous liquidity crises, bitcoin showed varied correlations with traditional markets.” According to him, the attitude of institutional investors will play a crucial role in the asset’s evolution. In other words, these decisions could either limit volatility or exacerbate market movements.

虽然一些专家担心比特币会经历一段动荡时期，但其他专家则认为这场危机是加强其对冲货币不稳定作用的机会。 Redstone 联合创始人 Marcin Kazmierczak 强调，“在之前的流动性危机期间，比特币与传统市场表现出不同的相关性。”他认为，机构投资者的态度将在资产的演变中发挥至关重要的作用。换句话说，这些决定可能会限制波动性或加剧市场波动。

Despite short-term uncertainties, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains decidedly optimistic. Jamie Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision, estimated in an analysis published on X on November 27, 2024, that the recovery of global money supply growth after March could propel the price of bitcoin beyond $132,000 by the end of 2025. This projection is based on the assumption of a global increase in liquidity, which strengthens interest in cryptos as a store of value.

尽管短期存在不确定性，但比特币的长期前景仍然明显乐观。 Real Vision 分析师 Jamie Coutts 在 2024 年 11 月 27 日在 X 上发布的分析中预计，3 月份后全球货币供应增长的复苏可能会推动比特币价格在 2025 年底突破 132,000 美元。这一预测基于假设全球流动性增加，这会增强人们对加密货币作为价值储存手段的兴趣。

Even bolder forecasts come from asset management firm VanEck, which anticipates a price of $180,000 after a 30 % correction in the first quarter of 2025. These estimates, while ambitious, reflect growing investor confidence in the large-scale adoption of bitcoin as a store of value. Such analyses also indicate an expectation of a more mature market, capable of overcoming current challenges and thriving in a changing global economic context.

资产管理公司 VanEck 做出了更大胆的预测，该公司预计 2025 年第一季度价格调整 30% 后将达到 18 万美元。这些预测虽然雄心勃勃，但反映出投资者对大规模采用比特币作为存储手段的信心不断增强。价值。此类分析还表明人们期望市场更加成熟，能够克服当前的挑战并在不断变化的全球经济背景下蓬勃发展。

This period of financial uncertainty raises questions about the place of bitcoin in a context marked by increasing economic tensions and complex political adjustments. In the short term, volatility seems inevitable, particularly in light of fluctuations in global liquidity. However, optimistic projections suggest considerable potential for bitcoin, both as a store of value and as a tool for global adoption. In a rapidly changing economic world, bitcoin may well establish itself further as a central player in the new financial dynamics.

在经济紧张局势加剧和复杂的政治调整的背景下，这段金融不确定性引发了人们对比特币地位的质疑。短期来看，波动似乎不可避免，特别是考虑到全球流动性的波动。然而，乐观的预测表明比特币具有巨大的潜力，无论是作为价值储存手段还是作为全球采用的工具。在快速变化的经济世界中，比特币很可能进一步确立自己在新金融动态中的核心地位。

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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of blockchain’s potential to revolutionize multiple sectors of the economy, I’m committed to educating and informing the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to empower everyone to better understand blockchain and grasp the opportunities it presents. I strive each day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decode market trends, relay the latest technological innovations and put into perspective the economic and societal stakes of this unfolding revolution.

我毕业于图卢兹理工学院，并持有 Alyra 的区块链顾问认证，于 2019 年加入了 Cointribune。我坚信区块链有可能彻底改变经济的多个部门，因此我致力于不断向公众进行教育和宣传不断发展的生态系统。我的目标是让每个人都能更好地了解区块链并抓住它带来的机会。我每天都努力对时事进行客观分析，解读市场趋势，传播最新的技术创新，并透视这场正在展开的革命的经济和社会利益。