美國債務上限危機導致國債發行暫停，比特幣回檔迫在眉睫

美國債務上限目前定為 36 兆美元，使財政部陷入預算僵局。為此，財政部長珍妮特耶倫宣布從 1 月 21 日起暫停發債。

The US debt has surpassed a historic threshold, reaching $36 trillion and prompting the Treasury to temporarily halt debt issuance. This measure, taken to avert a crisis, has sparked concerns in the financial markets. Among the assets likely to be affected is bitcoin, which, despite being frequently viewed as a safe haven against economic uncertainties, could experience a notable correction. However, this situation extends beyond mere market fluctuations, reflecting the fragilities of a global economic system seeking balance, where institutional responses will be critical for the future of cryptos.

美國債務已突破歷史門檻，達到36兆美元，促使財政部暫時停止發債。這項旨在避免危機的措施引發了金融市場的擔憂。可能受到影響的資產之一是比特幣，儘管比特幣經常被視為應對經濟不確定性的避風港，但它可能會經歷顯著的調整。然而，這種情況不僅僅是市場波動，反映出尋求平衡的全球經濟體系的脆弱性，其中機構反應對於加密貨幣的未來至關重要。

The immediate impact of the debt ceiling on bitcoin

債務上限對比特幣的直接影響

The US debt ceiling, currently set at $36 trillion, has placed the Treasury in a difficult budgetary position. To address this, Janet Yellen, Secretary of the Treasury, announced a suspension of debt issuance starting January 21. This measure, which will extend until March 14, risks significantly reducing global liquidity. Such a contraction, often associated with an increase in volatility, could affect financial assets, including bitcoin.

美國債務上限目前定為36兆美元，使財政部的預算陷入困境。為了解決這個問題，財政部長珍妮特耶倫宣布從 1 月 21 日起暫停發債。這種收縮通常與波動性增加有關，可能會影響包括比特幣在內的金融資產。

Raoul Pal, founder of Global Macro Investor, anticipates that this liquidity drop will coincide with a temporary peak for bitcoin at $110,000 in January. Subsequently, the asset could undergo a correction and fall below $70,000. Indeed, “global liquidity cycles dictate bitcoin’s behavior, and we anticipate short-term tensions,” he declared in an analysis published on X (formerly Twitter) on November 29, 2024.

Global Macro Investor 的創始人 Raoul Pal 預計，這種流動性下降將與 1 月比特幣暫時達到 11 萬美元的高峰同時發生。隨後，該資產可能會經歷調整併跌破 70,000 美元。事實上，「全球流動性週期決定了比特幣的行為，我們預計會出現短期緊張局勢，」他在 2024 年 11 月 29 日在 X（前身為 Twitter）上發布的分析中宣稱。

These concerns are amplified by signals emanating from traditional financial markets. The GMI global liquidity index, regarded as a benchmark indicator, points to imminent bearish pressure. Although bitcoin is often perceived as a safe haven against economic uncertainties, it remains vulnerable to fluctuations in global liquidity. This demonstrates that, despite its independence from traditional financial institutions, its evolution is still deeply linked to global macroeconomic dynamics.

傳統金融市場發出的訊號放大了這些擔憂。被視為基準指標的GMI全球流動性指數顯示看跌壓力迫在眉睫。儘管比特幣通常被視為應對經濟不確定性的避風港，但它仍然容易受到全球流動性波動的影響。這表明，儘管其獨立於傳統金融機構，但其演變仍與全球宏觀經濟動態密切相關。

Divergences in analysis and long-term perspectives

分析和長期觀點存在分歧

While some experts fear a period of turbulence for bitcoin, others see this crisis as an opportunity to strengthen its role as a hedge against monetary instability. Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder of Redstone, emphasized that “during previous liquidity crises, bitcoin showed varied correlations with traditional markets.” According to him, the attitude of institutional investors will play a crucial role in the asset’s evolution. In other words, these decisions could either limit volatility or exacerbate market movements.

雖然一些專家擔心比特幣會經歷一段動盪時期，但其他專家則認為這場危機是加強其對沖貨幣不穩定作用的機會。 Redstone 聯合創始人 Marcin Kazmierczak 強調，“在先前的流動性危機期間，比特幣與傳統市場表現出不同的相關性。”他認為，機構投資者的態度將在資產的演變中發揮至關重要的作用。換句話說，這些決定可能會限制波動性或加劇市場波動。

Despite short-term uncertainties, the long-term outlook for bitcoin remains decidedly optimistic. Jamie Coutts, an analyst at Real Vision, estimated in an analysis published on X on November 27, 2024, that the recovery of global money supply growth after March could propel the price of bitcoin beyond $132,000 by the end of 2025. This projection is based on the assumption of a global increase in liquidity, which strengthens interest in cryptos as a store of value.

儘管短期存在不確定性，但比特幣的長期前景仍然明顯樂觀。 Real Vision 分析師 Jamie Coutts 在 2024 年 11 月 27 日在 X 上發布的分析中預計，3 月後全球貨幣供應增長的複蘇可能會推動比特幣價格在 2025 年底突破 132,000 美元。流動性增加，這會增強人們對加密貨幣作為價值儲存手段的興趣。

Even bolder forecasts come from asset management firm VanEck, which anticipates a price of $180,000 after a 30 % correction in the first quarter of 2025. These estimates, while ambitious, reflect growing investor confidence in the large-scale adoption of bitcoin as a store of value. Such analyses also indicate an expectation of a more mature market, capable of overcoming current challenges and thriving in a changing global economic context.

資產管理公司VanEck 做出了更大膽的預測，該公司預計2025 年第一季價格調整30% 後將達到18 萬美元。手段的信心不斷增強。此類分析也表明人們期望市場更加成熟，能夠克服當前的挑戰並在不斷變化的全球經濟背景下蓬勃發展。

This period of financial uncertainty raises questions about the place of bitcoin in a context marked by increasing economic tensions and complex political adjustments. In the short term, volatility seems inevitable, particularly in light of fluctuations in global liquidity. However, optimistic projections suggest considerable potential for bitcoin, both as a store of value and as a tool for global adoption. In a rapidly changing economic world, bitcoin may well establish itself further as a central player in the new financial dynamics.

在經濟緊張局勢加劇和複雜的政治調整的背景下，這段金融不確定性引發了人們對比特幣地位的質疑。短期來看，波動似乎不可避免，特別是考慮到全球流動性的波動。然而，樂觀的預測表明比特幣具有巨大的潛力，無論是作為價值儲存手段還是作為全球採用的工具。在快速變化的經濟世界中，比特幣很可能進一步確立自己在新金融動態中的核心地位。

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A graduate of Sciences Po Toulouse and holder of a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune adventure in 2019. Convinced of blockchain’s potential to revolutionize multiple sectors of the economy, I’m committed to educating and informing the general public about this constantly evolving ecosystem. My goal is to empower everyone to better understand blockchain and grasp the opportunities it presents. I strive each day to provide an objective analysis of current events, decode market trends, relay the latest technological innovations and put into perspective the economic and societal stakes of this unfolding revolution.

我畢業於圖盧茲理工學院，並持有Alyra 的區塊鏈顧問認證，於2019 年加入了Cointribune 冒險之旅。進行教育和宣傳不斷發展的生態系統。我的目標是讓每個人都能更了解區塊鏈並抓住它所帶來的機會。我每天都努力對時事進行客觀分析，解讀市場趨勢，傳播最新的技術創新，並透視這場正在展開的革命的經濟和社會利益。