比特币（BTC）从接近历史高位回落，恰逢唐纳德·特朗普获胜的可能性回落

自 3 月份的历史高点 73,798 美元反弹至 234 美元以内以来，顶级代币已经暴跌。

The US election jitters have finally caught up with Bitcoin, which has faltered significantly in the last leg of the presidential race.

美国大选的紧张情绪终于赶上了比特币，比特币在总统竞选的最后一站大幅下滑。

The top token has crashed since rallying to within $234 of March’s all-time high of $73,798.

自 3 月份的历史高点 73,798 美元反弹至 234 美元以内以来，顶级代币已经暴跌。

First, on Friday, Bitcoin tanked 4%, marking its biggest decline in a month, and fell further over the weekend.

首先，周五比特币暴跌 4%，创一个月来最大跌幅，周末进一步下跌。

The token is now trading below $68,500, with over 1% losses on Monday. From last week’s highs, Bitcoin has fallen by about $5,000.

该代币目前交易价格低于 68,500 美元，周一跌幅超过 1%。从上周的高点来看，比特币已下跌约 5,000 美元。

The faltering rally coincided with a pullback in the chances of a Donald Trump win on election results betting sites like Predictit, Polymarket and Kalshi.

此次反弹的同时，唐纳德·特朗普在 Predictit、Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等选举结果投注网站上获胜的可能性也有所下降。

Some have called Bitcoin a “Trump trade” since he endorsed the crypto industry.

自从特朗普支持加密货币行业以来，一些人将比特币称为“特朗普交易”。

While Trump sees the United States as the global crypto capital, Kamala Harris has taken a more cautious approach, promising to support a regulated framework for the industry. Both their positions contrast President Joe Biden’s onslaught on the sector.

虽然特朗普将美国视为全球加密之都，但卡马拉·哈里斯采取了更为谨慎的态度，承诺支持该行业的监管框架。他们的立场与总统乔·拜登对该行业的猛烈攻击形成鲜明对比。

Bitcoin's Unwind From Near Record High

比特币从接近历史高位回落

With betting markets reducing the likelihood of pro-crypto Trump winning the election, the so-called “Trump trade” has started to unwind.

随着博彩市场降低支持加密货币的特朗普赢得选举的可能性，所谓的“特朗普交易”已经开始平息。

Trump's Lead Narrows

特朗普的领先优势缩小

Controversy surrounds prediction markets due to differing opinions on its informative worth and susceptibility to manipulation.

由于对预测市场的信息价值和操纵敏感性存在不同看法，围绕预测市场存在争议。

With Election Day fast approaching on November 5, opinion surveys indicate a highly competitive race.

随着 11 月 5 日选举日的临近，民意调查表明竞选竞争非常激烈。

Opinion polls have often been wrong in the past and the predicted gap between Trump and Harris is well below the margin of error in these surveys.

过去的民意调查经常出错，特朗普和哈里斯之间的预测差距远低于这些调查的误差幅度。

Extreme Volatility on the Cards

卡片上的极度波动

Investors are bracing for an extremely volatile period as the US election is just a day away. Traders are preparing for extreme see-saw moves, from stocks to cryptos to alternative investments.

距离美国大选仅一天，投资者正准备迎接极其动荡的时期。交易员正在为从股票到加密货币再到另类投资的极端拉锯走势做好准备。

As shorter-term options are simpler to place closer to an event, it is unsurprising that much of the election hedging has come at the eleventh hour.

由于短期期权更容易在临近事件发生时进行，因此大部分选举对冲出现在最后一刻也就不足为奇了。

Investors are braced for greater swings as implied volatility continues to outpace realised levels. This comes despite the S&P 500 Index going 29 sessions without a dip of more than 1%.

随着隐含波动率继续超过实际水平，投资者准备迎接更大的波动。尽管标普 500 指数连续 29 个交易日跌幅没有超过 1%，但还是出现了这种情况。

Apart from broader indices, certain other investments, including cryptocurrency and renewable energy equities, are seeing extreme volatility compared to their medians.

除了更广泛的指数外，包括加密货币和可再生能源股票在内的某些其他投资与中值相比也出现了极大的波动。

There has been a price movement of about 10% in crypto equities and roughly 6% in renewable energy company stocks.

加密货币股票的价格变动约为 10%，可再生能源公司股票的价格变动约为 6%。

After the election is over, the fundamental market movements will be in place to support a rally until the end of the year.

选举结束后，基本的市场走势将支撑股市反弹直至年底。

This includes the removal of hedges, the beginning of mutual fund purchasing in November, firm share repurchases, and systemic buying and hedging by option dealers due to decreased volatility.

这包括取消对冲、11 月份开始购买共同基金、公司股票回购以及期权交易商因波动性下降而进行系统性购买和对冲。

Preparation for an uncertain election that might have a major impact on policy is inevitable for the wealthy on Wall Street.

对于华尔街的富人来说，为可能对政策产生重大影响的不确定选举做好准备是不可避免的。

Traders are expected to work through the clock, with assistance from groups in Singapore and Hong Kong, as they keep tabs on popular Trump trades – long the dollar, short bonds – to anticipate when to enter or exit the market.

预计交易员将在新加坡和香港团体的协助下全天候工作，密切关注特朗普的热门交易——做多美元、做空债券——以预测何时进入或退出市场。

As a result of the election, the options market has gone from being extremely optimistic to being more focused on hedging, and crypto traders are taking different approaches.

由于选举，期权市场已经从极其乐观转向更加注重对冲，加密货币交易者正在采取不同的方法。

Data collected by crypto liquidity provider B2C2 shows that short-term contracts, such as 14-day puts, have far higher implied volatility than calls with the same expiration date, which has remained relatively consistent.

加密货币流动性提供商 B2C2 收集的数据显示，短期合约（例如 14 天看跌期权）的隐含波动率远高于相同到期日的看涨期权，且保持相对稳定。

A bullish outlook is evident beyond the election, with an increasing premium for calls across longer tenors and termed Bitcoin futures on CME. This suggests that there may be more rate cuts and positive changes in crypto policies in the coming months.

选举结束后，看涨前景显而易见，芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 的长期看涨期权和比特币期货溢价不断增加。这表明未来几个月可能会有更多降息和加密货币政策的积极变化。

However, there is no clear directional bias due to the increased volatility leading up to the election.

然而，由于选举前的波​​动性增加，没有明显的方向性偏差。

Event Risk Piles High

事件风险不断增加

Global markets, supported by dovish central banks, growing economies, and falling inflation, are now facing the reality of how vulnerable they were at the start of November.

全球市场在鸽派央行、经济增长和通胀下降的支持下，现在面临着 11 月初多么脆弱的现实。

The once-solid foundations are beginning to crumble.

曾经坚固的基础开始崩溃。

Spotty tech results have erased a month’s worth of market gains and sent the Nasdaq 100 to its first weekly loss in eight, despite tech being a primary trigger for higher moves to records this year.

尽管科技股是今年上涨至纪录高位的主要触发因素，但参差不齐的科技股业绩抹去了一个月的市场涨幅，并导致纳斯达克 100 指数八周以来首次出现周跌幅。

A record run of consecutive gains in bonds and stocks has recently reached a standstill due to event risks, such as the tight presidential race and significant uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

由于总统竞选紧张以及围绕美联储利率政策的重大不确定性等事件风险，债券和股票创纪录的连续涨幅最近陷入停滞。

No time in the cycle has there been as widespread fear across all asset classes as it is right now, from equities and bonds to commodities and currencies.

在这个周期中，从股票和债券到大宗商品和货币，所有资产类别都没有像现在这样普遍存在恐惧。

Concerns surface in cross-asset volatility as Trump trades take center stage.

随着特朗普交易成为焦点，跨资产波动的担忧浮出水面。

In the week before the election, a measure of cross-asset risk maintained by Bank of America reached a level not seen in pre-election periods outside of the financial crisis.

在大选前一周，美国银行维持的跨资产风险指标达到了除金融危机之外的大选前时期未曾见过的水平。

All things considered, it’s going to be a very dramatic year for risk

考虑到所有因素，这将是风险非常戏剧性的一年