比特幣（BTC）從接近歷史高點回落，恰逢唐納德·川普獲勝的可能性回落

自 3 月的歷史高點 73,798 美元反彈至 234 美元以內以來，頂級代幣已經暴跌。

The US election jitters have finally caught up with Bitcoin, which has faltered significantly in the last leg of the presidential race.

美國大選的緊張情緒終於趕上了比特幣，比特幣在總統競選的最後一站大幅下滑。

The top token has crashed since rallying to within $234 of March’s all-time high of $73,798.

自 3 月的歷史高點 73,798 美元反彈至 234 美元以內以來，頂級代幣已經暴跌。

First, on Friday, Bitcoin tanked 4%, marking its biggest decline in a month, and fell further over the weekend.

首先，比特幣週五暴跌 4%，創一個月來最大跌幅，週末進一步下跌。

The token is now trading below $68,500, with over 1% losses on Monday. From last week’s highs, Bitcoin has fallen by about $5,000.

該代幣目前交易價格低於 68,500 美元，週一跌幅超過 1%。從上週的高點來看，比特幣已下跌約 5,000 美元。

The faltering rally coincided with a pullback in the chances of a Donald Trump win on election results betting sites like Predictit, Polymarket and Kalshi.

在這次反彈的同時，唐納德·川普在 Predictit、Polymarket 和 Kalshi 等選舉結果投注網站上獲勝的可能性也有所下降。

Some have called Bitcoin a “Trump trade” since he endorsed the crypto industry.

自從川普支持加密貨幣產業以來，有些人將比特幣稱為「川普交易」。

While Trump sees the United States as the global crypto capital, Kamala Harris has taken a more cautious approach, promising to support a regulated framework for the industry. Both their positions contrast President Joe Biden’s onslaught on the sector.

雖然川普將美國視為全球加密之都，但卡馬拉·哈里斯採取了更謹慎的態度，承諾支持該行業的監管框架。他們的立場與總統喬·拜登對該行業的猛烈攻擊形成鮮明對比。

Bitcoin's Unwind From Near Record High

比特幣從接近歷史高點回落

With betting markets reducing the likelihood of pro-crypto Trump winning the election, the so-called “Trump trade” has started to unwind.

隨著博彩市場降低支持加密貨幣的川普贏得選舉的可能性，所謂的「川普交易」已經開始平息。

Trump's Lead Narrows

川普的領先優勢縮小

Controversy surrounds prediction markets due to differing opinions on its informative worth and susceptibility to manipulation.

由於對預測市場的資訊價值和操縱敏感度存在不同看法，圍繞預測市場存在爭議。

With Election Day fast approaching on November 5, opinion surveys indicate a highly competitive race.

隨著 11 月 5 日選舉日的臨近，民調顯示競選競爭非常激烈。

Opinion polls have often been wrong in the past and the predicted gap between Trump and Harris is well below the margin of error in these surveys.

過去的民調經常出錯，川普和哈里斯之間的預測差距遠低於這些調查的誤差幅度。

Extreme Volatility on the Cards

卡片上的極度波動

Investors are bracing for an extremely volatile period as the US election is just a day away. Traders are preparing for extreme see-saw moves, from stocks to cryptos to alternative investments.

距離美國大選僅一天，投資人正準備迎接極度動盪的時期。交易員正在為從股票到加密貨幣再到另類投資的極端拉鋸走勢做好準備。

As shorter-term options are simpler to place closer to an event, it is unsurprising that much of the election hedging has come at the eleventh hour.

由於短期選擇權更容易在接近事件發生時進行，因此大部分選舉對沖出現在最後一刻也就不足為奇了。

Investors are braced for greater swings as implied volatility continues to outpace realised levels. This comes despite the S&P 500 Index going 29 sessions without a dip of more than 1%.

隨著隱含波動率持續超過實際水平，投資者準備迎接更大的波動。儘管標普 500 指數連續 29 個交易日跌幅沒有超過 1%，但還是出現了這種情況。

Apart from broader indices, certain other investments, including cryptocurrency and renewable energy equities, are seeing extreme volatility compared to their medians.

除了更廣泛的指數外，包括加密貨幣和再生能源股票在內的某些其他投資與中位數相比也出現了極大的波動。

There has been a price movement of about 10% in crypto equities and roughly 6% in renewable energy company stocks.

加密貨幣股票的價格變動約為 10%，再生能源公司股票的價格變動約為 6%。

After the election is over, the fundamental market movements will be in place to support a rally until the end of the year.

選舉結束後，基本的市場趨勢將支撐股市反彈至年底。

This includes the removal of hedges, the beginning of mutual fund purchasing in November, firm share repurchases, and systemic buying and hedging by option dealers due to decreased volatility.

這包括取消對沖、11 月開始購買共同基金、公司股票回購以及選擇權交易商因波動性下降而進行系統性購買和對沖。

Preparation for an uncertain election that might have a major impact on policy is inevitable for the wealthy on Wall Street.

對於華爾街的富人來說，為可能對政策產生重大影響的不確定選舉做好準備是不可避免的。

Traders are expected to work through the clock, with assistance from groups in Singapore and Hong Kong, as they keep tabs on popular Trump trades – long the dollar, short bonds – to anticipate when to enter or exit the market.

預計交易員將在新加坡和香港團體的協助下全天候工作，密切關注川普的熱門交易——做多美元、做空債券——以預測何時進入或退出市場。

As a result of the election, the options market has gone from being extremely optimistic to being more focused on hedging, and crypto traders are taking different approaches.

由於選舉，選擇市場已經從極其樂觀轉向更加註重對沖，加密貨幣交易者正在採取不同的方法。

Data collected by crypto liquidity provider B2C2 shows that short-term contracts, such as 14-day puts, have far higher implied volatility than calls with the same expiration date, which has remained relatively consistent.

加密貨幣流動性提供者 B2C2 收集的數據顯示，短期合約（例如 14 天看跌期權）的隱含波動率遠高於相同到期日的看漲期權，且保持相對穩定。

A bullish outlook is evident beyond the election, with an increasing premium for calls across longer tenors and termed Bitcoin futures on CME. This suggests that there may be more rate cuts and positive changes in crypto policies in the coming months.

選舉結束後，看漲前景顯而易見，芝加哥商品交易所 (CME) 的長期看漲期權和比特幣期貨溢價不斷增加。這表明未來幾個月可能會有更多降息和加密貨幣政策的積極變化。

However, there is no clear directional bias due to the increased volatility leading up to the election.

然而，由於選舉前的波動性增加，沒有明顯的方向偏差。

Event Risk Piles High

事件風險不斷增加

Global markets, supported by dovish central banks, growing economies, and falling inflation, are now facing the reality of how vulnerable they were at the start of November.

全球市場在鴿派央行、經濟成長和通膨下降的支持下，現在面臨著 11 月初多麼脆弱的現實。

The once-solid foundations are beginning to crumble.

曾經堅固的基礎開始崩潰。

Spotty tech results have erased a month’s worth of market gains and sent the Nasdaq 100 to its first weekly loss in eight, despite tech being a primary trigger for higher moves to records this year.

儘管科技股是今年上漲至紀錄高位的主要觸發因素，但參差不齊的科技股業績抹去了一個月的市場漲幅，並導致納斯達克 100 指數八週以來首次出現週跌幅。

A record run of consecutive gains in bonds and stocks has recently reached a standstill due to event risks, such as the tight presidential race and significant uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy.

由於總統競選緊張以及圍繞聯準會利率政策的重大不確定性等事件風險，債券和股票創紀錄的連續漲幅最近陷入停滯。

No time in the cycle has there been as widespread fear across all asset classes as it is right now, from equities and bonds to commodities and currencies.

在這個週期中，從股票和債券到大宗商品和貨幣，所有資產類別都沒有像現在這樣普遍存在恐懼。

Concerns surface in cross-asset volatility as Trump trades take center stage.

隨著川普交易成為焦點，跨資產波動的擔憂浮出水面。

In the week before the election, a measure of cross-asset risk maintained by Bank of America reached a level not seen in pre-election periods outside of the financial crisis.

在大選前一周，美國銀行維持的跨資產風險指標達到了除金融危機之外的大選前時期未曾見過的水平。

All things considered, it’s going to be a very dramatic year for risk

考慮到所有因素，這將是風險非常戲劇性的一年