2024 年接近尾声，比特币 (BTC) 表现不佳，与其历史上的“圣诞老人集会”表现背道而驰

最大的加密货币在第 51 周总体上涨约 2.8%，本周有望下滑 11%。

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to underperform in the final weeks of 2024, diverging from its historical tendency to rally during the year-end “Santa Claus period.”

比特币 (BTC) 价格在 2024 年最后几周继续表现不佳，与年底“圣诞老人期间”上涨的历史趋势背道而驰。

Data shows that BTC price typically adds about 2.8% during the 51st week of the year. However, this year, the BTC price is poised to slip by 11%.

数据显示，比特币价格在一年中的第 51 周通常会上涨约 2.8%。然而，今年 BTC 价格预计将下跌 11%。

Additionally, while BTC tends to gain about 3% during the 52nd week, five out of the past six years have seen the BTC price decline during this week. Hence, there is not much optimism remaining for this year either.

此外，虽然 BTC 在第 52 周往往上涨约 3%，但过去六年中有五年比特币价格在本周下跌。因此，今年的前景也不乐观。

The precise timing of the so-called Santa Claus rally is up for debate, but it broadly encompasses the period from December into early January, with a possible buffer of a few days on either side.

所谓的圣诞老人集会的确切时间尚有争议，但它大致涵盖从 12 月到 1 月初的时期，两侧可能有几天的缓冲期。

This trend also extends to the fourth quarter as a whole, with Q4 historically being one of bitcoin's strongest quarters. But this year, BTC has underperformed in this regard as well.

这一趋势也延续到了整个第四季度，第四季度历来是比特币表现最强劲的季度之一。但今年，BTC 在这方面的表现也不佳。

According to data from Coinglass, since 2013, the average BTC price increase in the last three months of the year has been 85%. In 2024, however, this gain is less than 50%.

Coinglass的数据显示，自2013年以来，每年最后三个月的BTC价格平均涨幅为85%。然而，到 2024 年，这一增幅将低于 50%。

This ongoing price decline is also reminiscent of the start of 2021, albeit a bit later than when Santa Claus would be visiting—admittedly, a tenuous comparison at best.

这种持续的价格下跌也让人想起 2021 年初，尽管比圣诞老人来访的时间晚了一点——诚然，这充其量只是一个脆弱的比较。

On Jan. 8, 2021, bitcoin was trading at around $40,000. By Jan. 27, the price had dropped to $30,000, marking a 25% decline, which is steeper than the current 15% drawdown.

2021 年 1 月 8 日，比特币交易价格约为 40,000 美元。到 1 月 27 日，价格已跌至 30,000 美元，跌幅达 25%，比目前 15% 的跌幅更大。

However, that drawdown occurred during a bull run that began with bitcoin at around $10,000 in December 2020, ultimately peaking at $70,000 in November 2021.

然而，这一回撤发生在牛市期间，比特币在 2020 年 12 月的价格约为 10,000 美元，最终于 2021 年 11 月达到 70,000 美元的峰值。

One similarity to the present scenario is that the realized price, which represents the average on-chain cost for all tokens in circulation, continues to rise, indicating that investors, on average, continue to acquire coins at higher prices.

与当前情况的一个相似之处是，已实现的价格（代表所有流通代币的平均链上成本）持续上升，表明投资者平均继续以更高的价格购买代币。

At the same time, the price remains above the short-term holder's realized price (STH RP), which reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins that were last moved within 155 days.

与此同时，价格仍高于短期持有者的实现价格（STH RP），这反映了 155 天内最后移动的代币的平均链上收购价格。

Between December 2020 and April 2021, bitcoin sustained itself above the STH RP, utilizing this level as support, which is typical for bitcoin during bull markets. The current STH RP is at $84,000, suggesting that the bull market might still be holding as long as BTC remains above this key price point.

2020 年 12 月至 2021 年 4 月期间，比特币利用该水平作为支撑，维持在 STH RP 上方，这是牛市期间比特币的典型表现。目前 STH RP 为 84,000 美元，这表明只要 BTC 保持在这一关键价格点上方，牛市可能仍会持续。