2024 年接近尾聲，比特幣 (BTC) 表現不佳，與其歷史上的「聖誕老人集會」表現背道而馳

最大的加密貨幣在第 51 週整體上漲約 2.8%，本周可望下滑 11%。

Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to underperform in the final weeks of 2024, diverging from its historical tendency to rally during the year-end “Santa Claus period.”

比特幣 (BTC) 價格在 2024 年最後幾週繼續表現不佳，與年底「聖誕老人時期」上漲的歷史趨勢背道而馳。

Data shows that BTC price typically adds about 2.8% during the 51st week of the year. However, this year, the BTC price is poised to slip by 11%.

數據顯示，比特幣價格在一年中的第 51 週通常會上漲約 2.8%。然而，今年 BTC 價格預計將下跌 11%。

Additionally, while BTC tends to gain about 3% during the 52nd week, five out of the past six years have seen the BTC price decline during this week. Hence, there is not much optimism remaining for this year either.

此外，雖然 BTC 在第 52 週往往上漲約 3%，但過去六年中有五年比特幣價格在本週下跌。因此，今年的前景也不樂觀。

The precise timing of the so-called Santa Claus rally is up for debate, but it broadly encompasses the period from December into early January, with a possible buffer of a few days on either side.

所謂的聖誕老人集會的確切時間尚有爭議，但它大致涵蓋從 12 月到 1 月初的時期，兩側可能有幾天的緩衝期。

This trend also extends to the fourth quarter as a whole, with Q4 historically being one of bitcoin's strongest quarters. But this year, BTC has underperformed in this regard as well.

這一趨勢也延續到了整個第四季度，第四季歷來是比特幣表現最強勁的季度之一。但今年，BTC 在這方面的表現也不佳。

According to data from Coinglass, since 2013, the average BTC price increase in the last three months of the year has been 85%. In 2024, however, this gain is less than 50%.

Coinglass的數據顯示，自2013年以來，每年最後三個月的BTC價格平均漲幅為85%。然而，到 2024 年，這一增幅將低於 50%。

This ongoing price decline is also reminiscent of the start of 2021, albeit a bit later than when Santa Claus would be visiting—admittedly, a tenuous comparison at best.

這種持續的價格下跌也讓人想起 2021 年初，儘管比聖誕老人來訪的時間晚了一點——誠然，這充其量只是一個脆弱的比較。

On Jan. 8, 2021, bitcoin was trading at around $40,000. By Jan. 27, the price had dropped to $30,000, marking a 25% decline, which is steeper than the current 15% drawdown.

2021 年 1 月 8 日，比特幣交易價格約為 40,000 美元。到 1 月 27 日，價格已跌至 30,000 美元，跌幅達 25%，比目前 15% 的跌幅更大。

However, that drawdown occurred during a bull run that began with bitcoin at around $10,000 in December 2020, ultimately peaking at $70,000 in November 2021.

然而，這一回撤發​​生在牛市期間，比特幣於 2020 年 12 月開始價格約為 10,000 美元，最終於 2021 年 11 月達到 70,000 美元的峰值。

One similarity to the present scenario is that the realized price, which represents the average on-chain cost for all tokens in circulation, continues to rise, indicating that investors, on average, continue to acquire coins at higher prices.

與當前情況的一個相似之處是，代表所有流通代幣的平均鏈上成本的已實現價格持續上升，表明投資者平均繼續以更高的價格購買代幣。

At the same time, the price remains above the short-term holder's realized price (STH RP), which reflects the average on-chain acquisition price for coins that were last moved within 155 days.

同時，價格仍高於短期持有者的實現價格（STH RP），這反映了 155 天內最後移動的代幣的平均鏈上收購價格。

Between December 2020 and April 2021, bitcoin sustained itself above the STH RP, utilizing this level as support, which is typical for bitcoin during bull markets. The current STH RP is at $84,000, suggesting that the bull market might still be holding as long as BTC remains above this key price point.

2020 年 12 月至 2021 年 4 月期間，比特幣利用該水準作為支撐，維持在 STH RP 上方，這是牛市期間比特幣的典型表現。目前 STH RP 為 84,000 美元，這表明只要 BTC 保持在這一關鍵價格點上方，多頭市場可能仍會持續。