在不确定的经济环境中，比特币（BTC）经历了残酷的调整

在 12 月达到历史峰值后，比特币正在经历残酷的调整，在短短几周内就损失了近 10% 的价值。

Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop in value over the past few weeks, losing nearly 10% since reaching a historic peak in December. This decline cannot be attributed solely to natural market cycles but is largely influenced by a tense economic context.

过去几周，比特币的价值大幅下跌，自去年 12 月达到历史峰值以来，已下跌近 10%。这种下降不能仅仅归因于自然市场周期，而很大程度上受到紧张的经济环境的影响。

Persistently high inflation in the United States limits the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to maneuver, delaying hopes of lower interest rates. This situation intensifies the pressure on risky assets, including bitcoin, which sees its appeal diminish against a rising dollar and increasing bond yields.

美国持续高通胀限制了美联储（Fed）的操作能力，推迟了降息的希望。这种情况加剧了包括比特币在内的风险资产的压力，随着美元上涨和债券收益率上升，比特币的吸引力下降。

The imminent announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 15 could accentuate this trend. According to Steno Research, inflation exceeding projections could trigger new liquidations, pushing BTC below 85,000 dollars.

1 月 15 日即将公布的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 可能会加剧这一趋势。 Steno Research 表示，通胀超出预期可能会引发新的清算，从而将 BTC 推至 85,000 美元以下。

However, the danger does not solely stem from macroeconomic data. The bitcoin derivatives market remains overheated, fueling an excess of leverage that increases volatility.

然而，危险不仅仅源于宏观经济数据。比特币衍生品市场仍然过热，导致杠杆过高，从而增加了波动性。

Amid economic uncertainties and the fragility of speculative positions, crypto operates in a zone of instability, where each economic announcement could provoke a significant movement. A bitcoin weakened by an uncertain economic climate

在经济不确定性和投机头寸脆弱的情况下，加密货币运行在一个不稳定的区域，每项经济公告都可能引发重大变动。不确定的经济环境削弱了比特币

Since mid-December, bitcoin has been in a downward trend, falling from 106,000 dollars to around 96,000 dollars. This decline fits into a tense macroeconomic context, marked by rising inflation and a tighter monetary policy from the American Federal Reserve (Fed).

自12月中旬以来，比特币一直处于下跌趋势，从10.6万美元跌至9.6万美元左右。这种下降符合紧张的宏观经济背景，其特点是通胀上升和美国联邦储备委员会（Fed）收紧货币政策。

The latest employment report in the United States, published on January 10, highlighted a robust labor market, reinforcing the hypothesis of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period.

美国1月10日发布的最新就业报告凸显了强劲的劳动力市场，强化了长期维持高利率的假设。

This monetary uncertainty has contributed to strengthening the US dollar, putting additional pressure on risky assets, including bitcoin.

这种货币不确定性导致美元走强，给包括比特币在内的风险资产带来额外压力。

“Bitcoin seems restrained by the dollar’s strength, which is increasing due to a more restrictive Fed and new tariff threats,” explains Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale.

Grayscale 研究主管扎克·潘德尔 (Zach Pandl) 解释说：“比特币似乎受到美元走强的限制，由于美联储采取更严格的限制措施和新的关税威胁，美元走强正在加剧。”

At the same time, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds continue to rise, reflecting investor concerns about inflationary prospects.

与此同时，10年期国债收益率持续上升，反映出投资者对通胀前景的担忧。

Indeed, in this risk-averse climate, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected on January 15, appears to be a decisive factor. According to Steno Research, inflation exceeding 0.3 % could trigger a new wave of massive selling in the crypto market, potentially pushing bitcoin below 85,000 dollars.

事实上，在这种规避风险的环境下，预计将于 1 月 15 日公布的消费者价格指数 (CPI) 似乎是一个决定性因素。 Steno Research 表示，超过 0.3% 的通胀可能会引发加密货币市场新一波大规模抛售，有可能将比特币推至 85,000 美元以下。

Overheated futures markets, an additional risk

期货市场过热，额外风险

If the macroeconomic environment weighs heavily on bitcoin, the derivatives markets also amplify selling pressure. Despite the recent correction, open positions on BTC futures contracts remain at high levels, indicating that many investors are carrying excessive leverage. This situation creates an additional risk. In the event of a new drop in bitcoin, cascading liquidations could worsen volatility and intensify the market’s decline.

如果宏观经济环境对比特币造成沉重压力，衍生品市场也会放大抛售压力。尽管最近出现调整，但比特币期货合约的未平仓头寸仍处于高位，这表明许多投资者的杠杆率过高。这种情况会产生额外的风险。如果比特币出现新的下跌，级联清算可能会加剧波动性并加剧市场下跌。

According to Steno Research, the threshold of 85,000 dollars could be reached if American inflation proves to be stronger than expected.

据 Steno Research 称，如果美国通胀强于预期，则可能会达到 85,000 美元的门槛。

“An upward deviation in CPI figures could surprise the market and generate an additional shock on crypto prices,” explain analysts.

分析师解释说：“CPI 数据的上行偏差可能会让市场感到意外，并对加密货币价格产生额外的冲击。”

The impact of such a scenario would not be limited to cryptos. A strengthening dollar and higher bond yields would further divert investors from risky assets.

这种情况的影响不仅限于加密货币。美元走强和债券收益率上升将进一步转移投资者对风险资产的注意力。

However, this brutal correction would not undermine long-term bullish prospects. Steno Research estimates that 2025 could be a record year for bitcoin, driven by lower interest rates, a more favorable regulatory climate, and the traditional post-halving effect.

然而，这种残酷的调整不会损害长期看涨的前景。 Steno Research 估计，在较低的利率、更有利的监管环境以及传统的减半效应的推动下，2025 年可能是比特币创纪录的一年。

For now, caution is advised, as each new economic data point could redefine the market’s trajectory.

目前，建议谨慎行事，因为每个新的经济数据点都可能重新定义市场的轨迹。

In the short term, investors must contend with lasting downward pressure, fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties and a tense derivatives market. However, Steno Research anticipates a strong recovery during 2025, driven by several catalysts. A decrease in interest rates, a more favorable regulatory framework, and the impact of the halving could create favorable conditions for a new bullish cycle. Analysts estimate that bitcoin could surpass 150,000 dollars, reaching new historical highs. Until then, volatility remains a key element of the market. Amid economic adjustments and the strategic repositioning by investors, bitcoin will need to find balance before embarking on a new expansion phase. Caution is still advisable, as each macroeconomic data point can influence the market’s trajectory in the short term.

短期内，投资者必须应对宏观经济不确定性和衍生品市场紧张所带来的持续下行压力。然而，Steno Research 预计，在多种催化剂的推动下，2025 年将出现强劲复苏。利率下降、更有利的监管框架以及减半的影响可能为新的看涨周期创造有利条件。分析师预计，比特币价格可能突破15万美元，创历史新高。在此之前，波动性仍然是市场的一个关键因素。在经济调整和投资者战略重新定位的过程中，比特币需要找到平衡才能进入新的扩张阶段。仍建议谨慎行事，因为每个宏观经济数据点都可能影响市场的短期走势。