在不確定的經濟環境中，比特幣（BTC）經歷了殘酷的調整

在 12 月達到歷史高峰後，比特幣正在經歷殘酷的調整，在短短幾週內就損失了近 10% 的價值。

Bitcoin has experienced a significant drop in value over the past few weeks, losing nearly 10% since reaching a historic peak in December. This decline cannot be attributed solely to natural market cycles but is largely influenced by a tense economic context.

過去幾週，比特幣的價值大幅下跌，自去年 12 月達到歷史高峰以來，已下跌近 10%。這種下降不能僅僅歸因於自然市場週期，而很大程度上受到緊張的經濟環境的影響。

Persistently high inflation in the United States limits the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) ability to maneuver, delaying hopes of lower interest rates. This situation intensifies the pressure on risky assets, including bitcoin, which sees its appeal diminish against a rising dollar and increasing bond yields.

美國持續高通膨限制了聯準會（Fed）的操作能力，延後了降息的希望。這種情況加劇了包括比特幣在內的風險資產的壓力，隨著美元上漲和債券殖利率上升，比特幣的吸引力下降。

The imminent announcement of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) on January 15 could accentuate this trend. According to Steno Research, inflation exceeding projections could trigger new liquidations, pushing BTC below 85,000 dollars.

1 月 15 日即將公佈的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 可能會加劇這一趨勢。 Steno Research 表示，通膨超出預期可能會引發新的清算，從而將 BTC 推至 85,000 美元以下。

However, the danger does not solely stem from macroeconomic data. The bitcoin derivatives market remains overheated, fueling an excess of leverage that increases volatility.

然而，危險不僅源自於宏觀經濟數據。比特幣衍生性商品市場仍然過熱，導致槓桿過高，從而增加了波動性。

Amid economic uncertainties and the fragility of speculative positions, crypto operates in a zone of instability, where each economic announcement could provoke a significant movement. A bitcoin weakened by an uncertain economic climate

在經濟不確定性和投機部位脆弱的情況下，加密貨幣運作在一個不穩定的區域，每項經濟公告都可能引發重大變動。不確定的經濟環境削弱了比特幣

Since mid-December, bitcoin has been in a downward trend, falling from 106,000 dollars to around 96,000 dollars. This decline fits into a tense macroeconomic context, marked by rising inflation and a tighter monetary policy from the American Federal Reserve (Fed).

自12月中旬以來，比特幣一直處於下跌趨勢，從10.6萬美元跌至9.6萬美元左右。這種下降符合緊張的宏觀經濟背景，其特點是通膨上升和美國聯邦儲備委員會（Fed）收緊貨幣政策。

The latest employment report in the United States, published on January 10, highlighted a robust labor market, reinforcing the hypothesis of maintaining high interest rates for an extended period.

美國1月10日發布的最新就業報告凸顯了強勁的勞動市場，強化了長期維持高利率的假設。

This monetary uncertainty has contributed to strengthening the US dollar, putting additional pressure on risky assets, including bitcoin.

這種貨幣不確定性導緻美元走強，對包括比特幣在內的風險資產造成額外壓力。

“Bitcoin seems restrained by the dollar’s strength, which is increasing due to a more restrictive Fed and new tariff threats,” explains Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale.

Grayscale 研究主管 Zach Pandl 解釋說：“比特幣似乎受到美元走強的限制，由於美聯儲採取更嚴格的限制措施和新的關稅威脅，美元走強正在加劇。”

At the same time, yields on 10-year Treasury bonds continue to rise, reflecting investor concerns about inflationary prospects.

同時，10年期公債殖利率持續上升，反映出投資人對通膨前景的擔憂。

Indeed, in this risk-averse climate, the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI), expected on January 15, appears to be a decisive factor. According to Steno Research, inflation exceeding 0.3 % could trigger a new wave of massive selling in the crypto market, potentially pushing bitcoin below 85,000 dollars.

事實上，在這種規避風險的環境下，預計 1 月 15 日公佈的消費者物價指數 (CPI) 似乎是一個決定性因素。 Steno Research 表示，超過 0.3% 的通膨可能會引發加密貨幣市場新一波大規模拋售，有可能將比特幣推至 85,000 美元以下。

Overheated futures markets, an additional risk

期貨市場過熱，額外風險

If the macroeconomic environment weighs heavily on bitcoin, the derivatives markets also amplify selling pressure. Despite the recent correction, open positions on BTC futures contracts remain at high levels, indicating that many investors are carrying excessive leverage. This situation creates an additional risk. In the event of a new drop in bitcoin, cascading liquidations could worsen volatility and intensify the market’s decline.

如果宏觀經濟環境對比特幣造成沉重壓力，衍生性商品市場也會放大拋售壓力。儘管最近出現調整，但比特幣期貨合約的未平倉部位仍處於高位，這表明許多投資者的槓桿率過高。這種情況會產生額外的風險。如果比特幣出現新的下跌，級聯清算可能會加劇波動性並加劇市場下跌。

According to Steno Research, the threshold of 85,000 dollars could be reached if American inflation proves to be stronger than expected.

據 Steno Research 稱，如果美國通膨強於預期，可能會達到 85,000 美元的門檻。

“An upward deviation in CPI figures could surprise the market and generate an additional shock on crypto prices,” explain analysts.

分析師解釋說：“CPI 數據的上行偏差可能會讓市場感到意外，並對加密貨幣價格產生額外的衝擊。”

The impact of such a scenario would not be limited to cryptos. A strengthening dollar and higher bond yields would further divert investors from risky assets.

這種情況的影響不僅限於加密貨幣。美元走強和債券殖利率上升將進一步轉移投資者對風險資產的注意力。

However, this brutal correction would not undermine long-term bullish prospects. Steno Research estimates that 2025 could be a record year for bitcoin, driven by lower interest rates, a more favorable regulatory climate, and the traditional post-halving effect.

然而，這種殘酷的調整不會損害長期看漲的前景。 Steno Research 估計，在較低的利率、更有利的監管環境以及傳統的減半效應的推動下，2025 年可能是比特幣創紀錄的一年。

For now, caution is advised, as each new economic data point could redefine the market’s trajectory.

目前，建議謹慎行事，因為每個新的經濟數據點都可能重新定義市場的軌跡。

In the short term, investors must contend with lasting downward pressure, fueled by macroeconomic uncertainties and a tense derivatives market. However, Steno Research anticipates a strong recovery during 2025, driven by several catalysts. A decrease in interest rates, a more favorable regulatory framework, and the impact of the halving could create favorable conditions for a new bullish cycle. Analysts estimate that bitcoin could surpass 150,000 dollars, reaching new historical highs. Until then, volatility remains a key element of the market. Amid economic adjustments and the strategic repositioning by investors, bitcoin will need to find balance before embarking on a new expansion phase. Caution is still advisable, as each macroeconomic data point can influence the market’s trajectory in the short term.

短期內，投資人必須應對宏觀經濟不確定性和衍生性商品市場緊張所帶來的持續下行壓力。然而，Steno Research 預計，在多種催化劑的推動下，2025 年將出現強勁復甦。利率下降、更有利的監管框架以及減半的影響可能為新的看漲週期創造有利條件。分析師預計，比特幣價格可能突破15萬美元，創歷史新高。在此之前，波動性仍然是市場的關鍵因素。在經濟調整和投資者策略重新定位的過程中，比特幣需要找到平衡才能進入新的擴張階段。仍建議謹慎行事，因為每個宏觀經濟數據點都可能影響市場的短期趨勢。