比特币（BTC）可能被困在强迫交易的重力下方

比特币可能被困在强迫去杠杆化的引力下方，但是宏观战略家和前瞻性指导主持人Fel​​ix Jauvin坚持认为，清除风险书籍不仅仅是“一旦退化结束了一旦令人难以置信的交易的前奏”。

Macro strategist and Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin says that the clearing of risk books is no more than “the prelude to an incredible trade once the degrossing is over.”

宏观策略师和前瞻性指导主持人Fel​​ix Jauvin说，风险书籍的清除不过是“一旦退化结束后，进行令人难以置信的交易的前奏”。

In a thread on X, Jauvin stitches together fiscal arithmetic, global liquidity metrics and the geopolitics of trade to argue that the next great impulse for BTC will arrive when capital flows that have underpinned US asset dominance reverse and re‑seed risk appetite abroad.

在X上的线程中，斋文缝在一起，将财政算术，全球流动性指标和贸易的地缘政治缝合在一起，认为当BTC的下一个巨大冲动将到达时，当基于美国资产支配地位的资本流动反向和重新种植的风险偏见的资本流向国外。

Bitcoin Amid The Trump Chaos

在特朗普混乱的比特币

Jauvin begins by borrowing the empirical backbone of Michael Howell’s work. “Bitcoin is primarily driven by global liquidity,” he writes, citing Howell’s Granger‑causality tests, which give liquidity an eleven‑week statistical lead on spot prices. Equity‑style beta “is a spurious correlation,” Jauvin argues, because US equities have merely been the channel through which global dollar liquidity has expressed itself since pandemic‑era deficits swelled Treasury issuance and household incomes at once.

朱宁首先借用迈克尔·豪威尔（Michael Howell）作品的经验主管。他写道：“比特币主要是由全球流动性驱动的，”他以豪威尔的格兰杰（Granger）的原质测试为由，这使流动性以现货价格为11周的统计领先优势。库文认为，股票风格的beta“是一种虚假的相关性，”因为美国股票仅是全球美元流动性自我表达的渠道，因为大流行时代的赤字一次膨胀了国库券发行和家庭收入。

Putting numbers to the claim, he notes that the United States has “run a substantially higher fiscal deficit as % of GDP than any other country,” a gap that “mechanically leads to higher inflation, higher nominal GDP, and therefore higher top‑line revenue for corporations.” By extension, the S&P 500—and increasingly Bitcoin—have monopolised incremental risk capital. “Because of this dynamic, US equity markets have been the dominant marginal driver of risky asset growth, wealth effect, global liquidity, and therefore a vacuum for global capital to go where it’s treated best: the USA.”

他指出，他指出，美国“经历了比其他国家的财政赤字大幅更高的财政赤字”，这一差距“机械地导致通货膨胀率更高，名义GDP更高，因此公司的一流收入更高”。通过扩展，标准普尔500指数（越来越多的比特币）垄断了渐进式风险资本。 “由于这种动态，美国的股票市场一直是风险资产增长，财富效应，全球流动性，因此全球资本的真空驱动力的主要边缘驱动力，因此可以去享受最佳状态的地方：美国。”

Jauvin’s inflection point is the Trump campaign’s declared ambition to compress the trade deficit and prod allies into heavier fiscal outlays for defence and infrastructure. “The Trump administration wants to lower trade deficits with other countries, which mechanically implies a decrease of US dollars flowing to foreign countries that will not be reinvested into US assets,” he writes. A paired objective is “a weaker dollar and stronger foreign currencies,” achieved as foreign central banks lift rates and investors repatriate funds to harvest that carry.

朱宁的拐点是特朗普宣布的雄心勃勃，将贸易赤字压缩为国防和基础设施的较重财政支出。他写道：“特朗普政府希望降低与其他国家的贸易赤字，这实际上意味着流向国外的美元减少，而这不会再投资给美国资产。”一个配对的目标是“美元较弱，外币较强大”，因为外国中央银行提升税率和投资者将资金归还收获。

He sees the genie already inching out of the bottle: “Trump’s shoot‑first, ask‑questions‑after approach to trade negotiations is leading the rest of the world to unshackle themselves from their meagre fiscal deficits … I believe nations will continue with this pursuit regardless.”

他看到精灵已经从瓶子里移了出来：“特朗普首先要进行贸易谈判的方法正在导致世界其他地区摆脱自己微不足道的财政赤字……我相信国家将继续进行这一追求。”

If foreign governments embark on deficit‑financed rearmament and industrial policy, the marginal growth in global liquidity would migrate out of Washington and into Europe and Asia. “As the US continues to pivot from a global capital partner to a more protectionist one, holders of US‑dollar assets will begin to have to increase the risk premium associated with these previously pristine assets and have to mark them with a wider margin of safety.”

如果外国政府着手进行赤字融资和工业政策，那么全球流动性的边际增长将迁移到华盛顿，进入欧洲和亚洲。 “随着美国继续从全球资本合作伙伴转向更具保护主义的人，美国美元资产的持有人将不得不增加与这些以前原始资产相关的风险溢价，并必须以更大的安全余地进行标记。”

Why Bitcoin, And Why After The Sell‑Off

为什么要比特币，以及为什么出售之后

Jauvin frames the present turmoil as the necessary purgation of crowded positions: “The first trade is to sell US‑dollar assets that the entire world is overweight and avoid the degrossing that is ongoing.” Margin exhaustion forces funds to raise cash indiscriminately, pinning Bitcoin to tech beta for now. But, he insists, the second phase will favour assets unburdened by national accounts or tariff risk. “During rotational market days and non‑margin‑call days, we’ve started to see this dynamic take shape. DXY down, US equities underperforming ROW, gold soaring, and Bitcoin holding up surprisingly well.”

朱宁将目前的动荡构架为拥挤的立场的必要耕种：“第一批交易是出售全世界超重的美国财产资产，避免正在持续的衰落。”保证金耗尽迫使资金不加区别地筹集现金，目前将比特币固定在技术beta上。但是，他坚持认为，第二阶段将有利于国民账户或关税风险不承担的资产。 “在旋转市场日期和非玛金 - 呼叫时代，我们已经开始看到这种动态的形成。DXY下降，美国股票的表现不佳，金色飙升和比特币保持良好的状态。”

Gold has already responded, he notes. Bitcoin, by contrast, “hasn’t kept up with gold’s outperformance” because its high‑beta reputation keeps systematic traders on the sidelines. That sets up the asymmetry: “For me, a risk‑seeking macro trader, Bitcoin feels like the cleanest trade after the trade here. You can’t tariff bitcoin, it doesn't care about what border it resides in … and provides a clean exposure to global liquidity, not just American liquidity.”

他指出，黄金已经回应。相比之下，比特币“并没有跟上黄金的胜利”，因为其高含量的声誉使系统性交易者保持在场。这是不对称的：“对我来说，一个寻求风险的宏观交易员，比特币感觉就像是在这里交易后最干净的交易。您不能关税比特币，它不在乎它所处的边界……并提供了清洁的全球流动性，而不仅仅是美国流动性。”

Crucially, Jauvin anticipates a visible break in the co‑movement with US tech once non‑US fiscal stimulus becomes the leading source of incremental liquidity. “I’m seeing the potential for the first time … for Bitcoin to decouple from US tech equities,” he writes, conceding that the idea has hurt many before but arguing that this time “we are seeing the potential for a meaningful change in capital flows that would make it durable.”

至关重要的是，斋文预计，一旦非美国财政刺激成为增量流动性的主要来源，与美国技术的共同发展会有明显的突破。他写道：“我看到第一次的潜力是，比特币使比特币与美国技术股票脱离。”他承认，这个想法以前伤害了许多人，但认为这次的想法是“我们看到资本流量有意义的变化的潜力将使它持久持久。”

If the thread’s logic holds, the present stress is the mandatory downstroke before a secular re‑rating. “This market regime is what Bitcoin was built for,” Jauvin concludes. “Once the degrossing dust settles, it will be the fastest horse out of the gate. Accelerate.”

如果线程的逻辑成立，则目前的压力是在世俗的重新评估之前的强制性下跌。豪文总结说：“这种市场制度是比特币建立的。” “一旦尘土飞扬的尘埃落定，它将是大门中最快的马。加速。”

At press time, BTC traded at $84,766.

发稿时，BTC的交易价格为84,766美元。