比特幣（BTC）可能被困在強迫交易的重力下方

比特幣可能被困在強迫去槓桿化的引力下方，但是宏觀戰略家和前瞻性指導主持人Fel​​ix Jauvin堅持認為，清除風險書籍不僅僅是“一旦退化結束了一旦令人難以置信的交易的前奏”。

Macro strategist and Forward Guidance host Felix Jauvin says that the clearing of risk books is no more than “the prelude to an incredible trade once the degrossing is over.”

宏觀策略師和前瞻性指導主持人Fel​​ix Jauvin說，風險書籍的清除不過是“一旦退化結束後，進行令人難以置信的交易的前奏”。

In a thread on X, Jauvin stitches together fiscal arithmetic, global liquidity metrics and the geopolitics of trade to argue that the next great impulse for BTC will arrive when capital flows that have underpinned US asset dominance reverse and re‑seed risk appetite abroad.

在X上的線程中，齋文縫在一起，將財政算術，全球流動性指標和貿易的地緣政治縫合在一起，認為當BTC的下一個巨大衝動將到達時，當基於美國資產支配地位的資本流動反向和重新種植的風險偏見的資本流向國外。

Bitcoin Amid The Trump Chaos

在特朗普混亂的比特幣

Jauvin begins by borrowing the empirical backbone of Michael Howell’s work. “Bitcoin is primarily driven by global liquidity,” he writes, citing Howell’s Granger‑causality tests, which give liquidity an eleven‑week statistical lead on spot prices. Equity‑style beta “is a spurious correlation,” Jauvin argues, because US equities have merely been the channel through which global dollar liquidity has expressed itself since pandemic‑era deficits swelled Treasury issuance and household incomes at once.

朱寧首先借用邁克爾·豪威爾（Michael Howell）作品的經驗主管。他寫道：“比特幣主要是由全球流動性驅動的，”他以豪威爾的格蘭傑（Granger）的原質測試為由，這使流動性以現貨價格為11週的統計領先優勢。庫文認為，股票風格的beta“是一種虛假的相關性，”因為美國股票僅是全球美元流動性自我表達的渠道，因為大流行時代的赤字一次膨脹了國庫券發行和家庭收入。

Putting numbers to the claim, he notes that the United States has “run a substantially higher fiscal deficit as % of GDP than any other country,” a gap that “mechanically leads to higher inflation, higher nominal GDP, and therefore higher top‑line revenue for corporations.” By extension, the S&P 500—and increasingly Bitcoin—have monopolised incremental risk capital. “Because of this dynamic, US equity markets have been the dominant marginal driver of risky asset growth, wealth effect, global liquidity, and therefore a vacuum for global capital to go where it’s treated best: the USA.”

他指出，他指出，美國“經歷了比其他國家的財政赤字大幅更高的財政赤字”，這一差距“機械地導致通貨膨脹率更高，名義GDP更高，因此公司的一流收入更高”。通過擴展，標準普爾500指數（越來越多的比特幣）壟斷了漸進式風險資本。 “由於這種動態，美國的股票市場一直是風險資產增長，財富效應，全球流動性，因此全球資本的真空驅動力的主要邊緣驅動力，因此可以去享受最佳狀態的地方：美國。”

Jauvin’s inflection point is the Trump campaign’s declared ambition to compress the trade deficit and prod allies into heavier fiscal outlays for defence and infrastructure. “The Trump administration wants to lower trade deficits with other countries, which mechanically implies a decrease of US dollars flowing to foreign countries that will not be reinvested into US assets,” he writes. A paired objective is “a weaker dollar and stronger foreign currencies,” achieved as foreign central banks lift rates and investors repatriate funds to harvest that carry.

朱寧的拐點是特朗普宣布的雄心勃勃，將貿易赤字壓縮為國防和基礎設施的較重財政支出。他寫道：“特朗普政府希望降低與其他國家的貿易赤字，這實際上意味著流向國外的美元減少，而這不會再投資給美國資產。”一個配對的目標是“美元較弱，外幣較強大”，因為外國中央銀行提升稅率和投資者將資金歸還收穫。

He sees the genie already inching out of the bottle: “Trump’s shoot‑first, ask‑questions‑after approach to trade negotiations is leading the rest of the world to unshackle themselves from their meagre fiscal deficits … I believe nations will continue with this pursuit regardless.”

他看到精靈已經從瓶子裡移了出來：“特朗普首先要進行貿易談判的方法正在導致世界其他地區擺脫自己微不足道的財政赤字……我相信國家將繼續進行這一追求。”

If foreign governments embark on deficit‑financed rearmament and industrial policy, the marginal growth in global liquidity would migrate out of Washington and into Europe and Asia. “As the US continues to pivot from a global capital partner to a more protectionist one, holders of US‑dollar assets will begin to have to increase the risk premium associated with these previously pristine assets and have to mark them with a wider margin of safety.”

如果外國政府著手進行赤字融資和工業政策，那麼全球流動性的邊際增長將遷移到華盛頓，進入歐洲和亞洲。 “隨著美國繼續從全球資本合作夥伴轉向更具保護主義的人，美國美元資產的持有人將不得不增加與這些以前原始資產相關的風險溢價，並必須以更大的安全餘地進行標記。”

Why Bitcoin, And Why After The Sell‑Off

為什麼要比特幣，以及為什麼出售之後

Jauvin frames the present turmoil as the necessary purgation of crowded positions: “The first trade is to sell US‑dollar assets that the entire world is overweight and avoid the degrossing that is ongoing.” Margin exhaustion forces funds to raise cash indiscriminately, pinning Bitcoin to tech beta for now. But, he insists, the second phase will favour assets unburdened by national accounts or tariff risk. “During rotational market days and non‑margin‑call days, we’ve started to see this dynamic take shape. DXY down, US equities underperforming ROW, gold soaring, and Bitcoin holding up surprisingly well.”

朱寧將目前的動盪構架為擁擠的立場的必要耕種：“第一批交易是出售全世界超重的美國財產資產，避免正在持續的衰落。”保證金耗盡迫使資金不加區別地籌集現金，目前將比特幣固定在技術beta上。但是，他堅持認為，第二階段將有利於國民賬戶或關稅風險不承擔的資產。 “在旋轉市場日期和非瑪金 - 呼叫時代，我們已經開始看到這種動態的形成。DXY下降，美國股票的表現不佳，金色飆升和比特幣保持良好的狀態。”

Gold has already responded, he notes. Bitcoin, by contrast, “hasn’t kept up with gold’s outperformance” because its high‑beta reputation keeps systematic traders on the sidelines. That sets up the asymmetry: “For me, a risk‑seeking macro trader, Bitcoin feels like the cleanest trade after the trade here. You can’t tariff bitcoin, it doesn't care about what border it resides in … and provides a clean exposure to global liquidity, not just American liquidity.”

他指出，黃金已經回應。相比之下，比特幣“並沒有跟上黃金的勝利”，因為其高含量的聲譽使系統性交易者保持在場。這是不對稱的：“對我來說，一個尋求風險的宏觀交易員，比特幣感覺就像是在這裡交易後最乾淨的交易。您不能關稅比特幣，它不在乎它所處的邊界……並提供了清潔的全球流動性，而不僅僅是美國流動性。”

Crucially, Jauvin anticipates a visible break in the co‑movement with US tech once non‑US fiscal stimulus becomes the leading source of incremental liquidity. “I’m seeing the potential for the first time … for Bitcoin to decouple from US tech equities,” he writes, conceding that the idea has hurt many before but arguing that this time “we are seeing the potential for a meaningful change in capital flows that would make it durable.”

至關重要的是，齋文預計，一旦非美國財政刺激成為增量流動性的主要來源，與美國技術的共同發展有明顯的突破。他寫道：“我看到第一次的潛力是，比特幣使比特幣與美國技術股票脫離。”他承認，這個想法以前傷害了許多人，但認為這次的想法是“我們看到資本流量有意義的變化的潛力將使它持久持久。”

If the thread’s logic holds, the present stress is the mandatory downstroke before a secular re‑rating. “This market regime is what Bitcoin was built for,” Jauvin concludes. “Once the degrossing dust settles, it will be the fastest horse out of the gate. Accelerate.”

如果線程的邏輯成立，則目前的壓力是在世俗的重新評估之前的強制性下跌。豪文總結說：“這種市場製度是比特幣建立的。” “一旦塵土飛揚的塵埃落定，它將是大門中最快的馬。加速。”

At press time, BTC traded at $84,766.

發稿時，BTC的交易價格為84,766美元。